Englund

 Britain heads to the polls Thursday, and talk about another election gamble that hasn’t paid off.  In the same way President Biden hoped Americans wouldn’t notice his age and Emmanuel Macron assumed the French would rebuff the insurgent right, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak thought—wrongly—that a summer election would focus voters on his virtues. In the event, voters still are trying to figure out what those virtues are supposed to be.  Winning would have been a tall order for the Tories since they’ve been in power for 14 years. But the likely scale of their defeat wasn’t inevitable. The Tories have spent their years in power oscillating wildly between free-market instincts and big-state conservatism.  Struggling to explain to the electorate what the party stands for, the Conservatives risk what’s being described as an extinction-level event. If a party of the political right can’t make a convincing case that it will deliver prosperity, voters start wondering what the party is good for. W

  The culprits are three-fold: the structural collapse of demand in the office market, floating-rate mortgages, and loan maturities amid higher interest rates. Loans are pulled off the delinquency list if the interest gets paid, or if the loan is resolved through a foreclosure sale with big losses for the CMBS holders, or if a deal gets worked out between landlord and the special servicer that represents the CMBS holders, such as the mortgage being restructured or modified and extended. This extend-and-pretend is now all the rage because CMBS holders do not want to end up with a half-empty decades-old office tower, which is the gun the landlord holds to the lender’s head. ---- What Is a Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security (CMBS)? https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cmbs.asp ---- And many landlords have already pulled the trigger over the past two years by walking away from the loan and the property, losing whatever equity they had in the building, and letting the lender take the remai

 “Markets could at some point question fiscal sustainability,” Claudio Borrio, head of the BIS economic department, said in a press conference ahead of the release of the report. U.S. government debt has been rising even more sharply over the past decade, and the International Monetary Fund warned Thursday that it is set to reach a record high of 140% of GDP by 2032 if taxation and spending don’t change. “Such high deficits and debt create a growing risk to the U.S. and global economy,” the IMF said in its annual assessment of the U.S. economy. The BIS said that before the Covid-19 pandemic, the threat posed by high and growing debts was hidden by a long period of near-zero interest rates, which pushed debt servicing costs to historic lows.  Wall Street Journal 1 July 2024 https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/rising-government-debt-threatens-financial-stability-inflation-bis-says-e0efaf53 Annual Economic Report 2024 https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2024e.htm - There is no way to know whe

  Swedish Housing Prices Rise for Sixth Consecutive Month (englundmacro.blogspot.com) What happens when L’Empereur has no clothes? Quelle Horreur! Could France Crash the Euro? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/what-happens-when-lempereur-has-no.html Lagarde: Monetary policy in an unusual cycle: the risks, the path and the costs https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/lagarde-monetary-policy-in-unusual.html The predominant view that supply-chain disruptions were mostly to blame was not accurate.  Demand or Supply? (englundmacro.blogspot.com) BIS: “We know from experience that things look sustainable until, suddenly, they no longer do.” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/bis-we-know-from-experience-that-things.html 10-year yields have ‘little to no’ downside Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, says in the firm’s mid-year outlook that even though expectations for central bank interest rate cuts are likely to increase, that won’t lead to much movement in 10-y

  Niclas Rolander Bloomberg 2 juli 2024   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/swedish-housing-prices-rise-for-sixth-consecutive-month

Introductory speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the opening reception of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal Sintra, 1 July 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2024/html/ecb.sp240701~ba1ae1bd25.en.html https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html

https://www.di.se/nyheter/livlinan-forsvinner-pataglig-risk-for-effektbrist/ Sista natten med gänget Filmen handlar om ett gäng ungdomar, som just gått ur high school, en sensommarkväll 1962 i staden Modesto i Kalifornien.  Det är en skildring av ungdomsliv och tonårsdrömmar i allmänhet och av ungdomar i USA under 1960-talet i synnerhet. RE: Sedan åkte några av dem till Vietnam. Sista natten med gänget – Wikipedia Rolf Englund i Lund 1962-1966 Universitas Lundensis (internetional.se)

Breda nedgångar på Stockholmsbörsen – tungt fall i Saab (di.se) o

British, with the Greeks and the Italians, were early rebels.   The euro is the stumbling block for Continental Eurosceptics.  Talk of leaving terrifies the middle class, whose savings are endangered. Sudden realisation of this put paid to Marine Le Pen’s “Frexit” rhetoric overnight.   When the Brexit vote met stubborn resistance from most of the British elite, resulting in years of political and emotional turmoil, Continental Euroscepticism ground to a halt.  Post-Brexit confusion – played up shamelessly by the EU media – made membership seem a lesser evil.  So Euroscepticism evolved the strategy of taking over the EU from within.  Hence the rise of the populist Right.   The Remainers in the Conservative Party will not defend Brexit. They have allowed negative propaganda to go unchecked, even from their own officials.  Rather than defending their party’s most important act in 14 years of government, they allow it to be used as a weapon by the opposition.  They are the authors of their

At the European Central Bank annual gathering in Sintra, Portugal, economists Domenico Giannone of the International Monetary Fund and Giorgio Primiceri of Northwestern University say the predominant view that supply-chain disruptions were mostly to blame was not accurate. MarketWatch 2 July 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-real-cause-of-post-pandemic-inflation-was-demand-not-supply-argues-new-research-f9739073

The miscalculation of Emmanuel Macron in calling a snap election is on a par with David Cameron’s decision to hold the Brexit referendum RE: Eller Carl Bildts beslut att utlysa en folkomröstning om euron. Dock skall sägas till hans heder att han inte försökte införa euron utan en folkomröstning. In fairness to Cameron, it should be recalled that he had long held out the promise of a referendum. There are similarities, however. The first is the overconfidence of the leaders involved.  Having won both the 2015 general election and the Scottish independence referendum, David Cameron had formed a high opinion of his own political shrewdness Macron, the president who had come from nowhere in 2017 and won re-election in 2022, also overestimated his magical powers. This was partly to do with his own narcissistic character and partly with the office of the French President, which thinks like an imperial court. In the French case, the immediate reaction of the defeated parties – Mr Macron’s and

  France Haunts ECB as Lagarde Returns to Sintra https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/france-haunts-ecb-as-lagarde-returns-to.html   The four-party left-wing alliance, New Popular Front (NFP), had a good night too  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/enligt-prognoserna-far.html Dubbelt så många extrembränder på 20 år https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/dubbelt-sa-manga-extrembrander-pa-20-ar.html Lugn handelsdag på Wall Street – Nio rusade (di.se)   Dagens börs 29-30 juni 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/dagens-bors-29-30-juni-2024.html CNN Fear & Greed Index https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed US Bond Yields https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/us-bond-yields.html About me https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/what-have-i-done-caveat-emptor.html My website https://internetional.se/  

Bränderna härjar i Grekland – premiärministerns varning https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/branderna-harjar-i-grekland-premiarministerns-varning-star-infor-en-farlig-sommar Ny studie: Dubbelt så många extrembränder på 20 år https://www.dn.se/varlden/ny-studie-dubbelt-sa-manga-extrembrander-pa-20-ar/ The early timing of the season’s first hurricane is unusual, given the average date for the first hurricane is August 11. Atlantic basin has seen above normal water temperatures and a lack of wind shear due to the transition from El Niño season to La Niña season, both of which are fuel for tropical development. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/30/weather/hurricane-beryl-barbados-caribbean-sunday/ind ex.html

  The ECB Forum on Central Banking – the Sintra Forum – The ECB Forum on Central Banking – the Sintra Forum – is an annual event organised by the European Central Bank and is held in Sintra, Portugal. It brings together central bank governors, academics, financial market representatives, journalists and others to exchange views on current policy issues and discuss the Forum’s key topic from a longer-term perspective. ECB 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/ecbforum/html/index.en.html Twenty Years of the ECB’s monetary policy Speech by Mario Draghi ECB Forum on Central Banking, Sintra, 18 June 2019 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/07/twenty-years-of-ecbs-monetary-policy.html   Powell “Although policy is restrictive it may not be restrictive enough and it has not been restrictive for long enough,”  Powell said Wednesday during a panel hosted by the European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/06/powell-although-policy-is-res

  följt av vänsteralliansen NFP:s 28,5 procent. President Macrons mittenallians Tillsammans rankar trea med 20,3 procent. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/statsvetaren-om-forsta-omgangen-i-franska-valet-ett-chockresultat-i-nagon-mening På Place de la Republique i Paris syns tusentals människor, vissa av dem med tända bengaler, samlade. Enligt The Guardian har även barrikader satts i brand. Demonstranterna ska vara NFP-anhängare, skriver BBC, och Jean-Luc Mélenchon, ledare för yttervänsterns allians NFP, talade på platsen under kvällen. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/protester-i-frankrike-efter-valresultatet French elections: Thousands protest rise of far right – DW – 07/01/2024 The four-party left-wing alliance, New Popular Front (NFP), had a good night too  The alliance, made up of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unsubmissive France, Socialists, Greens and Communists, qualifies for the second round in many constituencies in big cities and multi-cultural banlieues (suburbs), where its backi