Englund

  2008 and all that The 2008 Financial Crisis Explained https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/financial-crisis-review.asp https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=2008

  Since the 2008 financial crisis, the provision of loans has shifted from banks’ balance sheets towards other firms that behave like traditional lenders but are more lightly regulated.  The aim is to examine how a crisis would spread between different parts of the financial system and whether this could magnify the shock rather than absorbing it. Non-banks accounted for about a quarter of the total €19tn stock of loans in the Eurozone at the end of 2023 Financial Times 27 May 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/72a515ac-83a5-4896-b270-dd3f817dc4a6 19 trn = 19.000 miljarder euro x 10,8 = 205 000 mrd kr. En fjärdedel därav = 51.000 mrd hos non-banks. Rise in loans to US non-bank financial groups raises systemic risk fears https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/rise-in-loans-to-us-non-bank-financial.html 2008 and all that https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=2008

  German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Ukraine has been given permission to use weapons supplied by its allies to launch strikes deep inside Russia. “There are absolutely no range limits anymore for weapons delivered to Ukraine, not from Britain, the French or from us — also not from the Americans,” Merz said at a conference in Berlin on Monday. “That means Ukraine can defend itself by attacking military positions also in Russia.” The US has previously approved the deployment of Army Tactical Missile Systems, known as ATACMS, in border regions with Russia. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/merz-gives-ukraine-the-green-light-to-strike-deep-inside-russia German Taurus cruise missiles have a longer range than the US, UK or  French cruise missiles already used by Kyiv © ABACA/Reuters https://www.ft.com/content/808cb107-1330-42e0-8af2-13ba67a24f50 Creating a new EU Central Intelligence Agency https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/10/creating-new-eu-central-intell...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-26/lagarde-doubles-down-on-push-to-raise-the-euro-s-global-profile Den globala ordningen med ett regelbaserat internationellt system och med USA-dollarn som världens reservvaluta visade sig vara mycket gynnsam för EU, men i dag håller den på att spricka.  Det sade ECB-chefen Christine Lagarde på måndagen, enligt ett förskrivet anförande. ”Med rätt policyrespons kan det öppnas möjligheter. Det förändrade landskapet kan öppna dörren för euron att spela en större internationell roll”, fortsatte hon. DI 26 maj 2025 https://www.di.se/live/lagarde-okad-osakerhet-om-usa-kan-gynna-euron/ Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at an event on Europe’s role in a fragmented world organised by Jacques Delors Centre at Hertie School in Berlin, Germany Berlin, 26 May 2025 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2025/html/ecb.sp250526~d8d4541ce5.en.html Delors, together with former French President François Mitterrand and former German C...

Räkna med valutapressade vinster för börsens exportjättar Den svenska kronan blir bara starkare och starkare. Den heta diskussionen från 2023 om att kronan för alltid kommer att vara en skvalpvaluta oavsett ekonomisk utveckling, räntepolitik och konjunktur känns mycket avlägsen.  Sedan i mitten av januari har kronan ökat med cirka 15 procent i värde mot dollarn och runt 6 procent mot euron. DI 25 maj 2025  https://www.di.se/analys/nu-vander-valutavinden-for-storbolagen/ This Time Is Different. Förut var räntan låg under många år. Bra för aktier och huspriser. Dollarn var hög aka Den svaga svenska kronan. Nu är räntan stigande och dollarn fallande. 21 maj https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/det-ar-latt-att-vara-efterklok.html  

  Lynne Truss, author of the punctuation guide Eats, Shoots & Leaves; semicolons can be “dangerously habit-forming”.  Anjana Ahuja Financial Times 24 May 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/80c39c74-8753-44bf-aeb0-cf6701a64f02 Kolon är ett tecken i tiden; pådrivande, praktiskt och komprimerande https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/kolon-ar-ett-tecken-i-tiden-padrivande.html

  Financial Times 26 May 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/bd6b01c1-bd69-4d02-9b46-c4673cfb9a32 Vietnam Asia’s great success story https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/vietnam-asias-great-success-story.html

Planen är att skapa begreppet Monetary Creation and Destruction - MCD, på svenska ungefär  Att skapa och förinta pengar. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/monetary-creation-and-destruction-mcd.html 1. Banks create money when they lend. They also create money when they buy coffee machines https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/banks-create-money-when-they-lend-they.html Det fördes länge en debatt om vilket M som skulle vara bäst för att förutse framtiden. Själv har jag tänkt mig att hushåll och företag har en skattkista där överst finns kassa och bank, längre ner värdepapper, belåningsmöjligheter och fastigheter och längst ner "The Family Silver". https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/vad-ar-pengar-m1-m2-m3-osv-monetary.html Det betyder att M stiger när aktier och fastigheter stiger i värde. Och tvärtom. Hushållen i USA har det mesta i aktier; och i sina hus... Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth 2. Non-banks get most of their money from banks. När en ...

   “… The household sector of America has never before had $50 trillion of exposure of equities on their balance sheet. Nobody this cycle has rebalanced. Diversification became a dirty 15 letter word - buy every dip. “Take a look at what the equity ownership was going into the tech wreck. Barely more than $10 trillion. Going into the financial crisis, $15 trillion. Now we're at $50 trillion so there's a lot at stake here… “71% of the household financial assets is in stocks. Who wants bonds? 8% in bonds. Bonds are for losers. Who shows up at the cocktail party talking about the belly of the curve? No one will talk to you. No. We'll talk about Bitcoin and the Nasdaq-100. The median boomer is now age 70.  It's not 45 or 50 or 55 as it was going into the Great Financial Crisis. And over 60% of the boomers' portfolio is in the equity market.  It should be 30 to 40%. Time is not on their side.  John Mauldin 23 May 2025 https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethought...

The strongmen back then came out of an era of scarcely precedented chaos: the great war, hyperinflation, political gangs fighting for control of the streets.  Today’s demagogues emerged in a period of sustained peace and affluence. It was more or less the richest nation on Earth that elected Donald Trump in 2016, after decades of falling violent crime, and more than 40 years since its last conscript war.  The 1930s is simple to understand, as it conforms to common sense: trauma leads to anger.  The real intellectual challenge is to absorb the theme of our own time, which is the perverse consequences of prolonged success.   Janan Ganesh Financial Times 23 May 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/8e86c342-75d5-43e3-a4db-8d7224781993 Trump and Farage are politicians for the post-TV age https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/trump-and-farage-are-politicians-for.html

  Banks have argued the rule, which requires them to hold capital when they trade against their investments in Treasuries, crimps their ability to add to those securities in stressful times, as they are treated in line with much riskier assets.  Loosening the rule would encourage them to boost holdings https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-23/bessent-sees-easing-capital-rule-on-us-treasuries-this-summer Scott Bessent The US Treasury secretary; Tim Geithner, Paulson, $29 trillion Dollar crisis https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/scott-bessent-us-treasury-secretary-tim.html

  ”Northvolt – en skildring inifrån”, av Miki Lundh, som jobbade på batteribolagets tyska strategiavdelning i ett och ett halvt år, från december 2023 fram till konkursen i mars i år. SvD 23 maj 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/KM42be/northvolt-en-skildring-inifran-mikaela-lundh-har-skrivit-bok-om-tiden-pa-northvolt Finansmannen Anders Sundström rådgivare till Northvolt https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/finansmannen-anders-sundstrom-radgivare.html Den röde bankiren tar över https://www.fokus.se/redaktionsbloggen/den-rode-bankiren-tar-over/ https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_Sundstr%C3%B6m Anders Sundström  https://www.internetional.se/anderssu.htm

  Vi ser nu en ny våg av skatteförändringar riktade mot förmögna individer i flera länder runt om i världen. Just nu är Sverige ett attraktivt alternativt skriver Joel Uddenäs,  Head of Tax & Legal Formue.   I Sverige har det under det senaste året aviserat förslag till förändringar i de så kallade 3:12-reglerna och carried interest-arrangemang.   Sverige saknar: förmögenhetsskatt, arvs- och gåvoskatt, exitskatt och fastighetsskatt på privata bostäder.  DI 23 maj 2025 https://www.di.se/debatt/skatteflykten-slar-tillbaka-och-sverige-ar-den-nya-vinnaren/ https://formue.se/ Vi har i dag fler miljardärer än någonsin tidigare. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/vi-har-i-dag-fler-miljardarer-nagonsin.html Sveriges miljardärer är ett problem. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/sveriges-miljardarer-ar-ett-problem.html

  Slitna hyreshus i ett socialt utsatt område på den andra. Kontrasterna finns överallt i Sverige men är särskilt skarpa i Stockholm  – Man såg det komma, att det skulle bli rika och välmående områden separerade från arbetarklassområden.  Man sa så här: Lika barn leka bäst. Man var inte alls lika oroad för separation som man är i dag DN 23 maj 2025 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/forskare-klyftorna-leder-till-en-splittring-i-samhallet/

  The regulation known as Fundamental Review of the Trading Book will be pushed back by one year to the start of 2027 It’s the second such delay. The commission had previously postponed FRTB implementation in an effort to avoid putting lenders such as Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas at a disadvantage to their US competitors. Bloomberg 23 May 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-23/eu-will-delay-capital-rules-for-bank-trading-desks-by-one-year The so-called Basel 3 Endgame aimed at completing the post-crisis framework that capital conservation buffers operate in was first watered down and then left in limbo https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/100-billion-us-banks-taking-on-fed-and.html Riksbanken vill att EU följer Basel III https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/ecb-split-big-eu-banks-capital.html

 ... på sina noterade intressebolag på samma sätt som Balder och Castellum.  Konsekvensen är att 34 procent av det egna kapitalet består av luft.  Styrelsen och vd anser dock att ”redovisningen ger en rättvisande översikt av bolaget”.  Magnus Dagel DI 23 maj 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/miljardhal-i-balansrakningen-aven-for-rutger-arnhult/ https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=Rutger+Arnhult+ Fastighetsmiljardären Erik Selin, Balder, Ola Serneke och räntan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/09/fastighetsmiljardaren-erik-selin-balder.html Goldman säljstämplar säljstämplar fastighetsjätten Castellum https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/08/goldman-saljstamplar-saljstamplar.html

  På Wall Street föll de ledande indexen tydligt, men under kvällen syntes en viss återhämtning.  Apples aktie backade 3 procent på fredagen. Övriga teknikjättar – som Nvidia, Microsoft och Amazon – backade alla omkring 1 procent. https://www.di.se/live/usa-borserna-tappade-efter-nya-tullutspel/ Retail Investors Who’ve Only Known Bull Markets  Are Buying the Dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/retail-investors-whove-only-known-bull.html Volvo Cars kommer inte att utveckla egna bilar -flyttas till Kina Veckans stora avslöjande från Dagen Industri är att Volvo Cars inte kommer utveckla egna bilar framöver utan att utveckling och projekt flyttas till Kina och majoritetsägaren Geely.  Det gäller även avknoppningen Polestar, samt nya Zeekr som varit en metod för Geely att pumpa Volvo Cars på kompetens.  Det går att se hur solen börjar gå ner för Göteborg som personbilstad,  även om antagligen tillverkning kommer finnas kvar för att komma runt EU:s tull...

 Fifty years ago the last Americans were evacuated from Saigon, leaving behind a war-ravaged and impoverished country. Today Saigon, renamed Ho Chi Minh City, is a metropolis of over 9m people full of skyscrapers and flashy brands.  The country has attracted $230bn of multinational investment and become an electronics-assembly titan. Chinese, Japanese, South Korean and Western firms all operate factories there. In the past decade Vietnam has grown at a compound annual rate of 6%, faster than India and China. Vietnam’s growth miracle is concentrated around a few islands of modernity.  Big multinational companies run giant factories for export that employ locals. But they mostly buy their inputs abroad and create few spillovers for the rest of the economy.  This is why Vietnam has failed to increase the share of the value in its exports that is added inside the country.  If Mr Lam fails, Vietnam will muddle on as a low-value-added production centre that missed its...

  Will Jamie Dimon build the first trillion-dollar bank?

Japan’s financial institutions are known to be big buyers of U.S. Treasurys, and have helped to bolster the global bond market in the past through what’s known as the yen-funded carry trade.  This trade involves borrowing in yen to buy a higher-yielding currency like the dollar, which is then invested in bonds of that currency.  But that era appears to be ending, putting both Treasurys and U.S. stocks at risk, according to one strategist. If sharply higher yields on Japanese government bonds entice the country’s investors to return home, “the unwinding of the carry trade could cause a loud sucking sound in U.S. financial assets,” said strategist Albert Edwards of the French-based bank Société Générale. “Most commentators attribute the rise in U.S. 30y yield to 5% to U.S. domestic fiscal developments without putting it into a wider global context. Both the U.S. Treasury and equity markets are vulnerable, having been inflated by Japanese flows of funds (as has the dollar),” Edwa...