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Scott Bessent Sees a Coming ‘Global Economic Reordering.’  Scott Bessent spent the past 40 years studying economic history. Now, as Donald Trump’s choice to lead the Treasury Department, he has the chance to make his mark on it. People who have worked with Bessent describe him as reserved and professorial. He once taught economic history at Yale University, his alma mater, and, as an investor, he would often research forgotten financial analogues to inform his views on current events. “We are going to have to have some kind of a grand global economic reordering,” Bessent said at a June event.  “I’d like to be a part of it. I’ve studied this.” Wall Street Journal 25 November 2024 https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/scott-bessent-sees-a-coming-global-economic-reordering-he-wants-to-be-part-of-it-533d6e71 Managing the US Treasury market and the nation’s fiscal trajectory will be a lot more daunting than markets seem to recognize. It’s hard to overstate the importance of the marke...

  Totalt har USA:s breda aktieindex S&P 500 stigit med 25 procent under 2024, jämfört med Stockholmsbörsen som bara gått upp med drygt 6 procent. – Det är väldigt ovanligt att det är så stor skillnad mellan börserna. Den är extremt stor, säger Maria Landeborn, senior aktiestrateg på Danske bank. Maria Landeborn råder hushållen att behålla sina Sverige-fonder. Hon tror att Stockholmsbörsen snart har bottnat och att den kan få ny fart en bit in på nästa år.  Skälet är stigande efterfrågan, drivet av räntesänkningar och att en global lågkonjunktur snart kommer förvandlas till högkonjunktur. – När det väl vänder kan det gå ganska snabbt uppåt på Stockholmsbörsen. Sälja USA–fonder? Många svenskar äger amerikanska och globala fonder, som till stor del består av USA–aktier. Maria Landeborn tror att USA fortfarande har mer att ge, givet fortsatt positiva förhoppningarna på effekterna av Trumps politik. SvD 25 november 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/EyKJG3/skillnaden-mellan-svenska-och-...

  The so-called debt brake enshrined in the constitution 15 years ago after the financial crisis. It’s increasingly seen as holding back growth at a time when German factories are struggling without cheap Russian natural gas and capital outflows have reached almost €260 billion on Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s watch since 2021. Germany’s fractious political landscape means there’s a threat that far-left and far-right parties will gain so much in the elections that the necessary majority won’t be possible without one of them joining the coalition that emerges. Bloomberg 25 november 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-25/germany-can-tap-bond-markets-to-boost-infrastructure-military-spending Tyskland dumpar sitt överskottsmål? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/tyskland-dumpar-sitt-overskottsmal.html Maria Landeborn råder hushållen att behålla sina Sverige-fonder. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/maria-landeborn-rader-hushallen-att.html USA-börserna stängde...

Communist-ruled Vietnam last month appointed Luong Cuong, a military general and former director of the political department of the People's Army, as its new president. Nearly half of Southeast Asian countries are now governed by former military generals or military regimes, a concerning trend for democracy and human rights in the region, experts say. Only Brunei, Malaysia and Singapore have consistently maintained civilian control over their militaries, analysts note. "The appearance of sudden militarization in 2024 is a deception because the military's power in politics has always existed — though sometimes in the shadows,"  Deutsche Welle 24 November 2024 https://www.dw.com/en/why-militarist-leaders-dominate-southeast-asias-politics/a-70830831 Aung San Suu Kyi is the daughter of the country's independence hero, General Aung San. Her father founded the modern Burmese army and negotiated Burma's independence from the British Empire in 1947 Suu Kyi continued h...

  Myanmar's military ruled almost uninterrupted from 1962 to 2015 before seizing power again in 2021  Why militarist leaders dominate Southeast Asian politics https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/why-militarist-leaders-dominate.html Bitcoin’s run toward $100,000 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/bitcoins-run-toward-100000.html Will the bubble burst for AI in 2025, or ... https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/will-bubble-burst-for-ai-in-2025-or.html Den som hoppades att Harris skulle bli första kvinna i ämbetet, men inte Le Pen; 27 procent av befolkningen utländsk härkomst https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/den-som-hoppades-att-harris-skulle-bli.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-22-november-2024.html Stock Market Data CNN https://edition.cnn.com/markets My website https://internetional.se/ about me https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/what-have-i-done-caveat-emptor.html

  Bitcoin’s run toward $100,000 has helped unleash massive gains for shares of some cryptocurrency-related companies.  But it’s also raising questions about what it might mean for the rest of the stock market. The concern is that investor appetite for risk assets — a category that includes both bitcoin and stocks — is nearing frothy levels last seen back in 2021.  As many might remember, that period briefly bestowed huge gains on investors. But it ultimately set the stage for a punishing bear market the following year that saddled novice investors with huge losses. Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 23 November 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoins-rally-is-making-some-investors-nervous-about-the-stock-market-8752cd49 The day came at last, to the sheer joy of the crypto faithful  — and the profound displeasure of skeptics.  US Securities and Exchange Commission for the first time approved  exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin.  Cave...

 Den som hoppades att Harris skulle bli första kvinna i ämbetet, men inte alls önskade Le Pen som president, bekräftar att inte ens den som upphöjer den sociala representationstanken till uttalat mål, förmår bortse från politiskt innehåll.  När det kommer till kritan trumfar substansen. Och det är bra.  Jag minns generat min egen personvalskampanj till riksdagen 1998, som bars av budskapet att jag var en ung kvinna som ville förändra.  Det var för väl att jag inte gavs makt på det mandatet, för det kunde ha förlett mig att tro att demokratiskt inflytande inte kräver mer ansträngning än så.  27 procent av befolkningen är antingen födda utomlands eller är födda i Sverige med två utrikes födda föräldrar. Tove Lifvendahl SvD 24 november 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/OoaX13/identitetspolitiken-ar-forminskande Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 23-24 november 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-23-24-november-2024.html

  will it start to deliver? The disparity between investor enthusiasm and business reality looks untenable For end users of AI, a different kind of struggle is under way, as individuals and companies try to work out how best to use the technology.  Much use of AI is in secret, as workers use it to streamline tasks such as rewriting text or generating reports.  Employees may worry that if they admit to using AI to get things done more quickly, bosses will give them more work to do, or take this as a signal that fewer workers are needed.  Rachana Shanbhogue The Economist 20 November 2024 https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/18/will-the-bubble-burst-for-ai-in-2025-or-will-it-start-to-deliver Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 23-24 november 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-23-24-november-2024.html

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/05/excellent-about-bitvoins-tulips.html Det gjorde även Newton https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/reddit-lehman-brothers-newton-och.html Mer här https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/us-stocks-in-bubble-no.html Här rätt länk - fel gammal länk längre fram EUR-Lex - 12008E123 - EN

  En ny världsordning är här, och den ser mycket ut som merkantilism När det globala finansiella systemet plötsligt kollapsade 2008, verkade det uppenbart att det hade sopat bort ett helt sätt att organisera världen. Om kapitalismen skulle överleva skulle den behöva vändas upp och ner. Och så bevisar det. Och ändå, 16 år och fem presidentval efter att Lehman Brothers kollapsade, dyker alternativet fortfarande upp. De två nyckelögonblicken av ekonomisk kris under 1900-talet var den stora kraschen 1929 och Richard Nixons slut på guldmyntfoten 1971. Den version av kapitalismen som satte fart på den förgyllda tidsåldern och det rytande 20-talet gick plötsligt under i oktober 1929. Den ersattes av en modell som skulle kallas keynesianism Till en början litade Herbert Hoovers administration på kapitalistisk kreativ förstörelse. De lät banker misslyckas, i hopp om att systemet skulle rensas, medan Amerika tog en katastrofal vändning mot protektionism med Smoot-Hawley-tullarna. Franklin D....

  Svensk text här En ny ekonomisk ordning — ekonomisk nationalism med egenintresserade statliga ingripanden Google translate When the global financial system suddenly collapsed in 2008, it seemed obvious that it had swept away an entire way of organizing the world.  If capitalism were to survive, it would need to be turned upside down. And so it is proving. And yet 16 years and five presidential elections after Lehman Brothers collapsed, the alternative is still emerging. The two key moments of economic crisis in the 20th century were the Great Crash of 1929, and Richard Nixon’s ending of the gold standard in 1971.  The version of capitalism that fueled the Gilded Age and the Roaring ‘20s perished suddenly in October 1929. It was replaced by a model which would be labeled Keynesianism  Initially, Herbert Hoover’s administration trusted capitalist creative destruction. They let banks fail, hoping the system would be cleansed, while America took a disastrous turn towar...

  What we are seeing is a shift to a multipolar world — not necessarily towards deglobalisation. Capital flows at the same level in late 2023 as in 2008, the last peak. Not all globalisation reflects good or genuine integration. One factor boosting indices, for instance, is the growing use of offshore tax havens, as the economist Brad Setser has noted. https://www.economicstrategygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Setser-Exec-Summary.pdf Gillian Tett Financial Times 22 November 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/1cfa6b3e-16c2-41e9-a1f6-fc90afaa7a98 Gillian Tett - en av mina Gurus https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/07/gillian-tett-en-av-mina-gurus.html What the heck is happening in the Cayman Islands? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2019/10/what-heck-is-happening-in-cayman-islands.html The U.S. government and the European Union spent the past decade changing laws and pressuring big multinationals not to book profits in offshore jurisdictions, such as the Cayman Islands, where t...

   JP Morgan PMI-siffrorna för eurozonen öppnar dörren för en dubbelsänkning från ECB https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/jp-morgan-pmi-siffrorna-for-eurozonen.html Shift to a multipolar world — not necessarily towards deglobalisation  CPI 2,6 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/cpi-26.html Another bruising unwind of the yen carry trade? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/another-bruising-unwind-of-yen-carry.html Wall Street tar helg i dur – Tesla rekylerade upp https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-tar-helg-i-dur-tesla-rekylerade-upp/ Dagens sektorvinnare var fastighetsbolagen,  i spåren av sjunkande marknadsräntor.  https://www.di.se/live/astra-zeneca-lyfte-stockholmsborsen/ Ropen skalla - lägre ränta för alla Tål den svenska ekonomin inte högre ränta än så? jo, men då skulle kohorten av aktiemäklare, fastighetsbolag och bankekonomer bli ledsna. Är de svenska bankerna egentligen fastighetsbolag? Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/202...

  Data show investors are piling back into bets against the Japanese yen, in a dynamic reminiscent of what preceded the violent reversal that shook global markets imarkets on Aug. 5. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-stock-market-meltdown-due-to-the-unwind-of-this-popular-hedge-fund-trade-2f6ab020 IMF blamed an unusually prolonged period of low volatility for encouraging hedge funds and other speculators to use leverage and other derivatives like forwards and swaps to supercharge their bets against the yen. Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 21 November 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-traders-setting-the-stage-for-another-bruising-unwind-of-the-yen-carry-trade-8b8fc73a Börsen i Stockholm och New York 4-5 augusti 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/08/borsen-i-stockholm-och-new-york-4-5.html The yen carry trade was a sure-fire recipe for easy profits: Just borrow in Japan, then plow it into Mexican bonds yielding over 10%, Nvidia’s soaring shares or even Bitcoin. ...

  JP Morgan menar på att de senaste PMI-siffrorna för eurozonen öppnar dörren för en dubbelsänkning från ECB.  ”Vi räknar för närvarande med att ECB kommer att sänka räntan vid varje möte fram till nästa sommar till 1,75 procent,  men den senaste tidens svaghet väcker frågor om huruvida den slutliga räntan kan vara lägre – särskilt med tanke på potentiella tullar på europeisk export till USA” DI 22 november 2024 https://www.di.se/live/storbank-det-har-oppnar-for-en-dubbelsankning/ The HCOB flash eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to 48.1 in November, a 10-month low “Things could hardly have turned out much worse. The eurozone’s manufacturing sector is sinking deeper into recession, and now the services sector is starting to struggle after two months of marginal growth  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/things-could-hardly-have-turned-out-much-worse-says-economist-on-eurozone-economy-e66d2e83 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 22 November 2024 https://englund...

Price level and inflation rate “I think if people were used to a world of 4% inflation and that was the norm they would not be especially unhappy about it,”  Policymakers could leave their 2% target in place formally, but be all right with never quite getting there.  And then some years down the line, they could adopt a higher target. Some economists think 4% would give the Fed more room to get out of downturns  Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 22 November 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-22-november-2024.html

  https://www.lidingonyheter.se/kungliga-operan-flyttar-in-i-gasklocka-2/ Ryssland har skjutit en interkontinental robot in i Ukraina Jag ser det det som att Ryssland bara vill skapa oro i Väst,  säger Markus Göransson, lektor i krigsvetenskap på Försvarshögskolan. https://www.dn.se/varlden/ryssland-avfyrar-interkontinental-robot-en-tom-signal/ Avgående utrikeschefen Josep Borrell uppmanar nu EUs medlemsländerna att vara mer enade Oscar Engelberts privata ägarbolag Parkgate  Tillgångarna uppgår till 0,8 miljoner kronor medan skulderna summeras till 1.395,5 Mkr.  Viktor Mölne DI 21 november 2024 https://www.di.se/live/skuldberg-pa-1-4-miljarder-i-oscar-engelberts-parkgate/   Oscar Properties  Den förra vd:n, grundaren Oscar Engelbert, sålde 12,4 procent av Oscar Properties för drygt 300 miljoner kronor vid aktiekursens kulmen våren 2017. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/bostadsrattsforening-vill-att-oscar.html ECB Must Keep Restrictive Policy on Pri...

  As Nvidia reports, here’s the history of what happens next after ten giant stocks outperform - MarketWatch Trump has no inkling of comparative advantage;  second and worse,  he does not understand that the trade balance is determined by aggregate supply and demand, not by the sum of bilateral balances.  Martin Wolf Financial Times 19 November 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/67a36786-8c79-41a2-8f22-3092b0a74d19 Trying to close current account deficits with trade tools could cause serious damage Risk of new eurozone crisis is rising, warns central bank ECB said investors were becoming increasingly concerned about government borrowing across the single currency bloc, which has barely grown in recent years. In its latest financial stability review, it said: ”Headwinds to economic growth from factors like weak productivity make elevated debt levels and budget deficits more likely to reignite debt sustainability concerns.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/20/...