‘You are going to see a crack in the bond market,’ warns Jamie Dimon.

He has plenty of company

Sounding the alarm about a debt crisis has been great for companies shilling gold coins and fishy financial products but has made smart, sincere people look silly when nothing happened

Hedge-fund manager Ray Dalio does have something to sell—his book, “How Countries Go Broke,” out Tuesday. 

But the world’s 172nd-richest person is hardly staking his reputation on royalties, and his arguments are compelling. 

Dalio told Bloomberg he gives America “three years, give or take a year” to avert an economic “heart attack.”

The package of tax-and-spending measures sent to the Senate, now officially called the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, could act like budgetary wolf bait. It would add around $3 trillion to debt levels over the next decade

Yet the bond market isn’t exactly collapsing, even if 30-year yields recently hit a postcrisis high. 

So who are you going to believe, millions of fairly relaxed investors or some wealthy pundits? 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated this past weekend that the U.S. will never default on its debt. But it doesn’t have to: Rapid inflation would accomplish the same thing if the Fed had to ride to the rescue  

Despite Dalio’s guesstimate, knowing when doomsayers will be proven right is impossible. Consider Stein’s Law: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal 3 June 2025

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-bond-market-us-debt-990e12e9


Ray Dalio How Countries Go Broke

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/ray-dalio-how-countries-go-broke-2025.html


“You are going to see a crack in the bond market. It is going to happen,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned at an economic forum Friday

"I'm telling you it's going to happen, and you're going to panic. I'm not going to panic. We'll be fine. We'll probably make more money," Dimon said

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/borsen-fredag-30-maj-2025.html


Dalio Warns of US Debt Crisis ‘Heart Attack’

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/dalio-warns-of-us-debt-crisis-heart.html


Stein's Law: If something cannot go on for ever it will stop

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/steins-law-if-something-cannot-go-on.html


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