The name’s bond. Treasury bond.

The only force that has so far been able to stop Donald Trump, or at least make him rethink

But twice now, US Treasury bond prices have dropped sharply in tandem with a weakening dollar. 

Until now, the bond markets were unfazed. What has changed?

The Ernest Hemingway cliché — that America has been going bankrupt gradually and now suddenly — is doing the rounds.

The markets are very much in the glass half full camp. 

Whenever Trump pulls back from the brink — by pausing tariffs, say, or promising not to fire US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell — he triggers a relief rally.

The conditions for a global financial crisis, on the other hand, should be taken seriously.

Edward Luce Financial Times 27 May 2025

https://www.ft.com/content/d9c762c5-64dc-42a6-bf87-b830808ec5b6


Buy the dip

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/buy-dip.html


A Big, Beautiful Deficit, updated



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