A Big, Beautiful Deficit, updated

Denna gång sammanfaller budgetoron med att USA:s position som ohotad herre på valutatäppan ifrågasätts på allvar.

Marknadens reaktion på Donald Trumps rivstartade andra presidentperiod pekar mot en urgröpt tro på dollar och amerikanska statsobligationer som säkra kapitalhamnar i orostider. 

Det har väckt liv i debatten om USA:s ibland kallat ”orimliga privilegium” som fått råda i över ett halvt sekel. Som utgivare av den dominanta världsvalutan följer en särskild global maktposition, och kanske framför allt: en kraftig ränterabatt på statsskulden.

Nils Åkesson DI 20 maj 2025

https://www.di.se/nyheter/da-exploderar-usa-s-rantenota-4-300-miljarder-dollar/


Fiscal concerns threaten to revive the “Sell America” trade that emerged last month, when investors worried that isolationist trade policies could lead to a global capital war that would result in foreign investors dumping U.S. assets, including Treasurys. 



Several investors noted that concerns about the U.S.’s fiscal standing have plagued investors for years without causing extended disruptions to stocks. 

They said factors including changes in trade policy are more likely to move markets in the short term.   

“The market has no idea what to focus on

Wall Street Journal 19 May 2025

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/us-economy-moody-credit-rating-investors-34bba11b


Donald Trump has a way with words. Nobody can possibly take this away from him. 

The bottom line of Trump’s desired tax cuts will be greater deficits.

The Biden administration avoided a widely anticipated recession over the last two years by priming the fiscal pump. 


The federal deficit has never been this deep outside a recession. Indeed, it hadn’t been this serious even during the downturns of the 1970s and 1980s

Now, it seems the bond vigilantes may need to levy a similar price to bring fiscal continence back to the US.

The menacing rise in longer yields shows that they have doubts


The excitement of the savage selloff in late 2018, culminating in what has come to be known as the Christmas Eve Massacre and 

a pivot toward easier money from the Fed, gives an idea of the risks ahead. 


It also suggests that investors would be well advised to stay on the equity train while watching the bond market very anxiously.

John Authers Bloomberg 15 May 2025

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-05-15/tax-bill-beautiful-is-in-the-eye-of-the-bond-vigilantes

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