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The last soft landing came in 1994

There have never been more open jobs in the U.S. than there are now

Not long ago, there were real hopes of a return to Goldilocks — an economy that’s not too hot and not too cold. 

The last soft landing came in 1994 — and many would complain that the Alan Greenspan Fed on that occasion sparked a recession in Latin America and the rest of the emerging markets, even if one was avoided in the U.S.

What Is A Real Rate, Anyway?

Using the real yield on inflation-protected bonds as a gauge of the long-term real interest rate is possibly the biggest mistake in finance. 

The ultra-low real yield on inflation protected bonds captures nothing more than a stampede for inflation protection overwhelming a tiny supply of inflation-protected bonds.

John Authers Bloomberg 4 maj 2022


Goldilocks has left the building

Edward Luce FT 3 May 2022


US market is more overvalued than in 1929, 1973 and 2007

Not exactly the Goldilocks scenario is it?

Merryn Somerset Webb FT 28 December 2021


Probability of soft landing 10 per cent

Mohamed El-Erian FT 21 February 2022

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