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2022-05-04

The last soft landing came in 1994

There have never been more open jobs in the U.S. than there are now

Not long ago, there were real hopes of a return to Goldilocks — an economy that’s not too hot and not too cold. 

The last soft landing came in 1994 — and many would complain that the Alan Greenspan Fed on that occasion sparked a recession in Latin America and the rest of the emerging markets, even if one was avoided in the U.S.

What Is A Real Rate, Anyway?

Using the real yield on inflation-protected bonds as a gauge of the long-term real interest rate is possibly the biggest mistake in finance. 

The ultra-low real yield on inflation protected bonds captures nothing more than a stampede for inflation protection overwhelming a tiny supply of inflation-protected bonds.

John Authers Bloomberg 4 maj 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-05-04/goldilocks-meet-sully-fed-bringing-the-economy-down-gently-would-be-a-miracle


Goldilocks has left the building

Edward Luce FT 3 May 2022

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/05/goldilocks-has-left-building.html


US market is more overvalued than in 1929, 1973 and 2007

Not exactly the Goldilocks scenario is it?

Merryn Somerset Webb FT 28 December 2021

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/us-market-is-more-overvalued-than-in.html


Probability of soft landing 10 per cent

Mohamed El-Erian FT 21 February 2022





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