More likely are rising inflation, a sharp rise in interest rates, a higher dollar and a huge surge in the US current account deficit.

Kommentarer

Skicka en kommentar

Populära inlägg i den här bloggen

Pfizer in 2019 sold $20 billion of drugs in the U.S. Its federal tax bill? Zero; Ireland

Trump has already singled out pharma companies and countries like Ireland that reap the benefits of tax-avoidance moves.  Despite its small size, Ireland ran an $87 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year—larger than any country except China, Mexico and Vietnam. https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/how-trumps-tariffs-could-upend-pharmas-overseas-tax-strategy-5b8ca758 Is Ireland vulnerable again as the world’s vast shadow banking system starts to crack? Shadow banking is the dog that has not barked during the latest global spasm of financial stress. This is very fortunate, especially for small countries such as Ireland that have bet the farm on this industry. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/04/is-ireland-vulnerable-again-as-worlds.html Cayman Islands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cayman_Islands What the heck is happening in the Cayman Islands? A Sunny Place for a Shady Online Business https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-sunny-place-for-shady-online-business.html Ti...
Läs mer

My blogg short index

Bild
1968 Vojne, vojne, vänsterdårarna kommer AI Artificial intelligence https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/ai-artificial-intelligence.html Akvedukten vid Zaghouan, Sven Otto Littorin och Niall Ferguson. Denna vackra betraktelse från 1994 har sedan dess legat i mitt bakhuvud. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/akvedukten-vid-zaghouan-sven-otto.html Alistair Darling, Northern Rock och Royal Bank of Scotland https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/alistair-darling.html Bank stress tests https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bank-stress-tests.html Bessent https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/06/bessent.html Gordon Brown https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/gordon-brown_5.html Buy the dip https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/buy-dip.html Fastighetsbolagen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/fastighetsbolagen.html Tomas Fischer https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/tomas-fischer.html James Grant https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/07/james-grant.h...
Läs mer

Martin Wolf; The next crash - Why this time might not be different

Bild
Stock markets are not only ignoring the obvious threats, but seem imbued with extreme optimism. In the autumn of 1929, Irving Fisher, one of the greatest American economists, stated: “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”  This turned out to be one of the most incorrect forecasts ever made: in short order, US and global stock markets were hit by the Great Crash, which was followed by the Great Depression. Maybe markets were in some sense “right” before the crash and wrong after it. But who cared? For investors and the hundreds of millions of people across the world whose lives were upended by the disaster, the gods of the stock market had failed for a generation. Why might this story be relevant today? The answer is that the valuation of US stocks is even higher today than in September 1929.  The first global financial crisis after the disaster of the 1930s in 2007-09: the easy monetary — and relaxed regulatory — policies adopted after the stoc...
Läs mer