Black Swan Manager Spitznagel Huge Rally, Then 1929-Style Crash
The alarming part of Spitznagel’s current outlook is that he sees conditions akin to 1929, the year of the Wall Street crash.
The silver lining for those hoping the bull-market music will keep playing a while longer.
He thinks this is more like the early part of 1929 when stocks added significantly to their Roaring ’20s gains.
Both individual and professional investors tend to increase their stock exposure at times like today.
Institutional investors’ exposure to equities just reached its highest since November 2007, just before a vicious bear market.
American households’ allocation to stocks is also at a record, surpassing tech-bubble levels.
Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal Sept. 22, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/black-swan-manager-sees-huge-rally-then-1929-style-crash-f2d16c9b
If this credit bubble ever pops it’s going to be the most catastrophic market failure that anyone has ever read about - Spitznagel said.
Spitznagel, 51, insists he’s not a “doom and gloomer.”
3 June 2022
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/06/if-this-credit-bubble-ever-pops.html
Basically, Spitznagel, a protégé of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, says he makes far out-of-the-money bets that cost little but deliver huge when it all comes crashing down.
februari 14, 2020
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2020/02/basically-he-says-he-makes-far-out-of.html
Can it get any better than nirvana?
Everywhere you look in markets these days, fear is in retreat. Global equities are at record highs, while credit spreads have tightened to levels last seen in 1998. And yet, the economy may be sending a warning that the momentum is about to fade.
First up, the bullish backdrop: The Fed’s interest-rate cut last week, meant to cushion the weakening labor market, might once have sparked caution. Instead, it lit a fire under the risk complex, with junk bonds and shares of unprofitable tech firms advancing.
“Equity markets are reaching the closest thing to nirvana when economic growth is good enough and the Fed is looking to cut interest rates anyway,” said Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist for Manulife John Hancock Investments.
The S&P 500 Index has added $15 trillion in market value since early April. Its 34% gain over the past five months is a feat topped in just four other instances since 1950.
The worry among some investors, however, is that the rebound has already priced in a near-perfect environment, at a time when economic growth is likely to slow.
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