Englund

  Such milestones affect nothing and should have no psychological impact, but they do. On more foundational grounds, the most widely watched long-term stock metric is the CAPE (cyclically adjusted price/earnings) multiple, popularized by the Yale University economist Robert Shiller. Another metric, espoused by Alan Greenspan when he chaired the Federal Reserve, compares the earnings yield (the inverse of the p/e ratio) with the 10-year yield.  For two decades, stocks yielded more than bonds, making asset allocation easy. There Was No Alternative to stocks. Now there is. The 10-year is yielding more. It’s not clear that there’s a bubble in share prices, although they’re certainly not cheap.  There might well be a bubble in the amount people are prepared to spend on AI, in the earnings that the Magnificents make on the back of that, and in projected earnings for the future.  That is where trouble could arise. John Authers Bloomberg September 30, 2025 https://www.bloomb...

 —even though the rewards, by some measures, are lower than they have been in decades.  The frothy mood has some on Wall Street worried that the market is priced for perfection and ripe for a fall.  That is why any bad news is touching a nerve and raising the question of whether something more profound is ailing American borrowers.  Wall Street Journal 29 September 2025 https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-credit-market-is-hummingand-that-has-wall-street-on-edge-0721c324 Instead, they talk of equity markets being “priced to perfection”, by which they mean there is little or no room for mishaps.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-stock-market-is-timebomb-waiting-to.html

  Uppåt på USA-börserna. Oljepriset sjönk.  Klarna backade. Kurslyft i Nvidia. https://www.di.se/live/uppat-pa-usa-borserna-nar-oljepriset-sjonk/ Det blev en positiv måndag på Stockholmsbörsen  efter att indexen tagit fart igen under eftermiddagen. https://www.di.se/live/plusstangning-pa-borsen-koprad-lyfte-nibe/ Finländska posten värderas till över 3 miljarder kronor i noteringen https://www.di.se/live/finlandska-posten-varderas-till-over-3-miljarder-kronor-i-noteringen/ EA Agrees to $55 Billion Sale in Largest Leveraged Buyout on Record https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-29/ea-agrees-to-sale-in-largest-leveraged-buyout-on-record?srnd=homepage-europe Riskkapitalbolaget Monterro tar in 19 miljarder kronor till två fonder, varav en blir rekordstor. ”Vi ska fortsätta med vårt baslinjespel à la Mats Wilander”, säger medgrundaren Lars Sveder. DI 29 september 2025 https://www.di.se/digital/svensk-mjukvaruspecialist-tar-in-19-miljarder/ Hemlarmbolaget Verisure värd...

    https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/9-technologies-transformed-investing-telegraph-ai-2cd029dc

  How might policymakers alter their 2% inflation targets without getting attacked by the bond vigilantes for playing fast and loose with their mandates?  Too little attention was paid at the start of the decade to the likely hangover from a heady cocktail of cutting interest rates close to zero and increased bond buying via quantitative easing — at the same time as governments delivered a bucketload of fiscal stimulus. Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg September 29, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-29/how-to-improve-inflation-targets-without-inciting-the-bond-vigilantes Should policy be permanently locked into a target that now looks wrong out of fear that changing it will make policymakers look weak? The Fed could adopt a policy of strategic hypocrisy, insisting that its target hasn’t changed while in practice allowing inflation close to 3 percent for several years; then, once it has become clear that such a policy won’t allow runaway inflation, finally change...

S&P 500’s current multiple reflects the market capitalization-based weighting structure of the index, the increased dominance of some key technology stocks and a few extreme outliers.  In fact, the equal-weighted version of the index — which puts $10 billion companies on par with $4.3 trillion Nvidia Corp. — has a blended forward price-earnings ratio of just 17.8, a whisker above its 10-year average. Jonathan Levin Bloomberg September 29, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-29/the-s-p-500-index-is-very-pricey-adjust-don-t-flee The S&P 500 has never been this expensive,  or more concentrated in fewer companies https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/usa-aktier-dyrare-under-it-boomen-nio.html Huawei Plans Three-Year Campaign to Overtake Nvidia in AI Chips Bloomberg 23 September 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-23/huawei-plans-three-year-campaign-to-overtake-nvidia-in-ai-chips  

för allvarliga brister i granskningen av fastighetsprofilens ägarbolag IB Invest. 60.000 kr Myndigheten slår fast att årsredovisningen dolde närståendetransaktioner och att det saknades grund att godkänna resultat- och balansräkningen.  DI 29 september 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/hard-kritik-och-boter-for-ilija-batljans-revisor/ Batljans uppgång och fall  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/06/lija-batljans-uppgang-och-fall.html Fastator, Björn Rosengren, Carl Bildt, Spiltan och Batljan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/fastator-bjorn-rosengren-carl-bildt.html

Massive leveraged buyouts and an ever-growing pile of risky debt are causing concerns about the economy, with some drawing comparisons to 2007. Debt markets have broadly grown fast over the last decade. The US high-grade market was less than $4 trillion in early 2015, and now has about $7.6 trillion outstanding.  Private credit  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-private-credit-market-15-trillion.html has evolved into a more  than $1.7 trillion market relatively quickly.  “When you price things to perfection,  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-stock-market-is-timebomb-waiting-to.html anything less than perfection can cause, at a minimum, a correction.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-27/the-echoes-of-2007-are-starting-to-become-louder-credit-weekly

  from the left, the extreme right and even his own centrist allies to include higher levies on the well-heeled as part of an effort to rein in the largest deficit in the euro area. Current parliamentary math means that to adopt a financial text, Lecornu would need either Socialist lawmakers or Marine Le Pen’s National Rally to abstain in a no-confidence motion.  Bloomberg 29 September 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-29/france-s-pm-lecornu-under-pressure-to-bring-in-wealth-tax Fransk regeringskris

Man läser ofta artiklar om att det är en svår bostadsmarknad för unga; ”Vi valde att inte skaffa barn alls bara för att det är så extremt dyrt med ett adekvat boende för en familj”   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/svar-bostadsmarknad-for-unga-extremt.html Sådana artiklar handlar som regel om det som kallas vanligt folk.  Det finns ett annan grupp som också är ganska vanlig. Det är ungdomar som kan få hjälp av sina föräldrar, levande eller döda. Föräldrar som haft framgång i sin som det kallas bostadskarriär. Man kan dela upp den yngre befolkningen mellan de som fått ärva, eller kommer att få ärva, typ fem miljoner kronor, och de andra. Förra gången vi hade hög inflation, i början på nittiotalet, var de svenska bankernas totala lånestock drygt 1.000 miljarder kronor, ungefär hälften av BNP. Företag stod för drygt hälften av lånevolymen och hushåll för en femtedel. I dag är rollerna ombytta. Dels är den totala lånestocken över 10.000 miljarder, nära två gånger BN...

US equities today account for more than 60pc of the value of global equities as a whole, up from around 40pc 15 years ago. Granted, the US continues to grow more strongly than much of the rest of the industrialised world and it enjoys a commanding lead in many of the technologies of the future. Virtually all investment observers of any longevity seem to share this view, but few are yet brave enough to stick their necks out and call the top. NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING Instead, they talk of equity markets being “priced to perfection”, by which they mean there is little or no room for mishaps.  Goldman Sachs strategist says stocks are priced for perfection The stock market is at the same valuation as when Greenspan made his ‘irrational exuberance’ comment https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/most-people-assume-that-s-500-index.html Fear of missing out, or Fomo,  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/crash-of-1929-it-was-fomo-plus-debt-its.html further drives the stampede towa...

Han är farbror till Tomas Fischer https://www.svtplay.se/video/8pzGBp2/det-sjunde-inseglet   https://www.internetional.se/fischerpolt.htm  

In researching a new book, Can You Run the Economy? (Penguin, Sept. 18),  https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/471419/can-you-run-the-economy-by-mayes-joe/9781529960716 I talked with Norman Lamont, Philip Hammond, Kwasi Kwarteng, Jeremy Hunt and Rachel Reeves: four Tories and the current Labour chancellor.  This is what they told me. Growth Is the Holy Grail Growth is what improves living standards and boosts the tax take. It’s the top priority for every chancellor. “The best thing for fiscal sustainability is a healthy, growing economy,” said Reeves, the first female chancellor in the 800-year history of the role. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rachel_Reeves “It’s very important as chancellor not to pay too much attention to what the tabloids write,” said Lamont, who held the position from 1990 to 1993 under John Major’s premiership.  “You should take a longer-term view. Public opinion, and even tabloid newspapers, surprisingly often alter their opinion.” When Lamont was first...

Italian researchers applied modern-day tools of epidemiology to trace how the rumors that provoked the upheaval spread across France. The findings, published in the journal Nature https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09392-2 Wall Street Journal 26 September 2025 https://www.wsj.com/science/french-revolution-economic-fears-epidemiology-53285662

Under Donald Trump, the world has taken a sharp turn back toward the 17th century doctrine of mercantilism — the notion that trade is a zero-sum game in which countries should be self-sufficient and focus on exporting far more than they import. It worked for Louis XIV and other early European empires, and the aim of America First is to reintroduce it with the US this time the victor. The world has acquiesced in tipping the terms of trade sharply in favor of the US. So far, this looks like a crushing victory for America First.  But it ignores one critical factor. There is already one country that has been practicing mercantilism for decades, it’s very good at it, and it appears to be a step ahead of the US as it starts to play the same game: China. John Authers Bloomberg September 26, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-26/why-america-will-lose-its-mercantilist-game

https://www.di.se/analys/nu-borjar-laskiga-veckan/ In Ai billions are so 2022; now about trillions; Einhorn, ChatGPT Why America Will Lose Its Mercantilist Game https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/why-america-will-lose-its-mercantilist.html USA-börserna avslutade börsveckan i dur.  https://www.di.se/live/uppat-pa-wall-street-electronic-art-rusade-pa-buduppgifter/   Stockholmsbörsen slog an en munter ton under fredagen  avslutade börsveckan med en relativt tydlig uppgång. https://www.di.se/live/uppat-pa-stockholmsborsen-volvo-vinnare-efter-tullbesked/ Klarnas aktie faller på fredagen under bolagets noteringskurs på 40 dollar och inleder därmed i den initiala handeln en fjärde nedgångsdag. På First North i Stockholm faller samtidigt Flat Capital 3 procent https://www.di.se/live/klarna-faller-tungt-handlas-under-noteringskursen/ In Ai billions are so 2022; now about trillions; Einhorn, ChatGPT https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/in-ai-billions-are-so-2022-now-abo...

  https://www.economist.com/interactive/primers/biology

  Mercator Robinsons projektion https://sv.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinsons_projektion Perplexity https://www.perplexity.ai/search/robinsons-projektion-tciFtU_0Sf2alARcIMKYog#1

”Vi valde att inte skaffa barn alls bara för att det är så extremt dyrt med ett adekvat boende för en familj”    DN 2025-09-23 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/svar-bostadsmarknad-for-unga-blivit-ett-oonskat-preventivmedel/ Sedan 2021 har bostadspriserna i snitt backat tre procent, men skillnaderna mellan storstäderna – och mellan olika stadsdelar – är stora. Bland storstäderna sticker Göteborg ut i negativ bemärkelse – där har priserna fallit med 5 procent sedan 2021.  RE: Vilken stadsdel är adekvat? SvD 25 september 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/W0nkBa/har-lyfter-bostadspriserna-igen-och-har-har-det-rasat-mest

Millions of Americans of the workforce may no longer have the spending power to meaningfully affect the statistics. Many people are puzzled about the disconnect between how well the US economy is doing and how badly Americans feel about it. An economy in which millions of workers are economically invisible may ultimately encounter bigger problems.  A sizable percentage of full-time US workers, possibly as many as two-thirds, don’t earn enough to sustain a family of four. That’s a harder problem to solve than inflation.  Real wages are lower than they were in 2020 and consumer spending is indeed slowing, yet the economy hums along. The top 10% of earners now account for about half of consumer spending. The shrinking economic footprint of three-fifths of America’s workforce raises some uncomfortable questions.  It’s clear to me that ignoring the frustration workers are expressing will eventually threaten the whole economy; growing divisions, possible social unrest and decli...

The US oil and gas industry is taking its private backlash against President Donald Trump’s energy agenda to the next level, warning that policy missteps are hurting the world’s biggest oil producer. The criticism was revealed in the latest energy survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.  The quarterly publication is widely read within the energy sector and features anonymous, unfiltered comments from respondents working at production and service companies. West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, is down almost 10% in 2025 and traded on Wednesday under $65 a barrel. Bloomberg 24 September 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/us-shale-bosses-decry-broken-business-as-trump-wants-more-oil We will drill, baby, drill; shale output peaked in November 2023 Donald Trump is late to the shale party. The fracking boom of the last 15 years has largely run its course as the best seams are exploited and productivity declines. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2...

In a report on bank resolution, Switzerland’s financial regulator Finma, said that the country’s sole globally significant lender had workable plans for restructuring and resolution, but to stabilize acute emergency situations more room for maneuver is needed. Major banks in Europe are legally required to have written instructions for how to ensure an orderly wind-down or prepare a sale when they’re in trouble. Those plans are intended to help prevent any crisis at an individual bank from expanding into a systemic one. Bloomberg September 25, 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-25/finma-says-ubs-emergency-plan-can-t-be-deemed-executable Bank living wills ensure no bank’s failure can create systemic collapses https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/12/bank-living-wills-ensure-no-banks.html More info by Perplexity https://www.perplexity.ai/search/major-banks-in-europe-are-lega-0LAO68fRQnCmodLoIqIF2A#0

Fed’s Powell says stocks are ‘fairly highly valued.’  These 3 charts show he’s right. Several popular valuation metrics for U.S. stocks are at, or approaching, record highs. Greenspan has been widely credited with popularizing the phrase “irrational exuberance” — which came to define the dot-com bubble — although the market wouldn’t reach its peak until more than three years after he made that speech. Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch Sept. 24, 2025   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-says-stocks-are-fairly-highly-valued-these-3-charts-show-hes-right-81991a5d Stockholmsbörsen avslutade dagen i rött för andra dagen i rad.   https://www.di.se/live/ny-nedgang-pa-stockholmsborsen-h-m-rusade-pa-rapport/ Det Wallenbergskontrollerade klimatkontrollbolaget Munters mardrömsvecka på börsen fortsätter.  Aktien har fallit nästan 19 procent  under de senaste fem handelsdagarna.  Under torsdagen är aktien ned 7 procent  https://www.di.se/live/wallenbergbo...

För Borg var det viktigt att staten sparar pengar när ekonomin går bra, för att ha tillräckligt med resurser för att stötta ekonomin när den går dåligt. På den tiden hade Sverige ett mål om att den offentliga sektorn i snitt skulle spara 1 procent av storleken på ekonomin (BNP) per år under en hög– och lågkonjunktur. Men sedan Anders Borg gjorde sorti som finansminister har politikernas ambitioner för statens finanser gradvis skalats tillbaka. Från och med 2027 kommer politikerna nöja sig med att budgeten går jämnt ut, i snitt över en konjunkturcykel. Idag finns det inget parti i Sveriges riksdag som tycker att politikerna bör lägga pengar på hög för en regnig dag. Johan Carlström SvD 22 september 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/rPkloA/siffran-svantesson-inte-vill-att-du-ska-se Alla gör plötsligt helt om och ansluter sig till Englunds linje om Överskottsmålet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/05/alla-gor-plotsligt-helt-om-och-ansluter.html

Dubbelstimulansen är Sveriges sista livlina Trots regeringens stora skattesänkningar gör Riksbanken ett till försök att väcka liv i svensk ekonomi. Styrräntan sänks från 2 till 1,75 procent. Om denna dubbelstimulans inte snart vänder konjunkturen måste det ses som tecken på djupa problem i Sveriges tillväxtmodell. Svensk tillväxt står fortfarande stilla. Vi närmar oss fyra år av en stegvis försämrad arbetsmarknad. Sverige får en av den rika världens lägsta styrräntor – euroländernas ränta ligger högre trots att deras inflation just nu är lägre. Samtidigt får vi en injektion från finanspolitiken. Om inte heller den här injektionen får effekt måste det tolkas som tecken på att vi har djupare problem i vår tillväxtmodell. Carl Johan von Seth DN 23 september 2025 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/carl-johan-von-seth-dubbelstimulansen-ar-sveriges-sista-livlina/ RE: Sveriges tillväxtmodell? Har vi en sådan?  485 900 personer arbetslösa, 8,7 procent I augusti var 485 900 personer arbetslösa, mätt...

U.S. Talking With Argentina About $20 Billion in Aid Establishing a swap line with Argentina or lending to it would effectively mean supplying dollars that the country could use to buy pesos, thereby strengthening the currency. The Treasury’s announcement will provide Milei “some breathing space” to contain pressure on the peso before the Oct. 26 congressional election, said Kimberley Sperrfechter, a Latin America economist at Capital Economics. But Sperrfechter said the U.S. support won’t solve Argentina’s broader economic problems, including what she says is Milei’s unsustainable currency policy that has created an overly strong peso. https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/bessent-says-u-s-talking-with-argentina-about-20-billion-in-aid-0a821d79 Mr Milei’s problems are not due solely to political misfortune, though. His reform programme has relied heavily on a strong peso to contain inflation.  The classic example is sterling’s Black Wednesday exit from the European exchange rate mech...

  Ny nedgång på Wall Street - för andra dagen i rad. Tesla mot strömmen med en uppgång på 4 procent Nvidia tappade 0,8 procent.   https://www.di.se/live/ny-nedgang-pa-wall-street-freeport-mcmoran-rasade/ Stockholmsbörsen var på ett småsurt onsdagshumör  och bjöd på en relativt tydlig nedgång.  https://www.di.se/live/rod-dag-pa-stockholmsborsen-lundin-mining-rusade/ Argentina faces a market run on its peso The classic example is sterling’s Black Wednesday exit from the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992. One of those traders was Scott Bessent, then employed by the hedge fund manager George Soros and now the US Treasury secretary. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/argentina-faces-market-run-on-its-peso.html Bilkoncernen Stellantis stänger tillfälligt sex fabriker i Europa på grund av låg efterfrågan. https://www.di.se/nyheter/stopp-i-europas-bilfabriker-orovackande/ Ljusa prognosen: Ekonomin lyfter Lågkonjunkturen kommer inte  vara över för...

Nästan alla länder misslyckas med sina åtaganden i Parisavtalet.  Solkraft är Pakistans enskilt största källa för elektricitet. Ingenstans någonsin i historien har ett lands energisystem förvandlats så snabbt.  Det remarkabla är att revolutionen är helt och hållet marknadsdriven och att hushåll och fastighetsägare har varit självständiga aktörer. Nu investerar de snabbt i batterier för stabilitet och nattdrift.  Staten har inte reglerat fram någonting. Sol priskonkurrerar ut kol på marknad efter marknad. Kina är den stora aktören. Bedömare talar om Kina som historiens första ”elektrostat”, världsledande på sol, vind och elbilar.  Kolkraft är fortsatt förödande stort men tack vare tillväxten av fossilfri energi ökar inte längre Kinas utsläpp. Hittills i år har Kina installerat dubbelt så mycket solceller som resten av världen och landet exporterar massiva mängder billiga solpaneler till afrikanska länder, Sydostasien och till länder som Pakistan. David Wallace-Wells s...