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If the tariffs, which are in effect the biggest U.S. tax rise since at least the 1950s,  cause the economy to shrink, stocks and yields still have a long way to go down. James Mackintosh Wall Street Journal 3 April 2025  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/market-upheaval-from-trumps-tariffs-could-be-just-the-beginning-e70303f3 James Mackintosh on this blogg https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=James+Mackintosh Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-3-april-2025.html

Trump has already singled out pharma companies and countries like Ireland that reap the benefits of tax-avoidance moves.  Despite its small size, Ireland ran an $87 billion trade surplus with the U.S. last year—larger than any country except China, Mexico and Vietnam. https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/how-trumps-tariffs-could-upend-pharmas-overseas-tax-strategy-5b8ca758 Is Ireland vulnerable again as the world’s vast shadow banking system starts to crack? Shadow banking is the dog that has not barked during the latest global spasm of financial stress. This is very fortunate, especially for small countries such as Ireland that have bet the farm on this industry. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/04/is-ireland-vulnerable-again-as-worlds.html What the heck is happening in the Cayman Islands? A Sunny Place for a Shady Online Business https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/12/a-sunny-place-for-shady-online-business.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 april 2025 https://englundmacro...

En faktor är så kallade rebalanseringsflöden. Efter USA-börsernas fenomenala fjolår behövde många förvaltare återställa sina exponeringar till de riktlinjer de har att förhålla sig till, vilket har lett till ett flöde av kapital från USA till Europa.  Om valutamarknaden har börjat fundera i de banorna vore det naturligt att driva växelkursen i riktning mot en tänkt anslutningskurs mot euron. Och den skulle förmodligen ligga närmare 10 kronor än 11. Viktor Munkhammar DI 3 april 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/darfor-visar-kronan-kaosstyrka/ Sverige och Moderaterna måste återfinna sin plats  i Europa;  att vara med i euron   - PM Nilsson vd på Timbro DI 13 mars 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/frida-wallnor-tar-plats-bland.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-3-april-2025.html

Bloomberg 3 april 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/germany-and-france-push-for-a-more-aggressive-tariff-response Macron uppmanar bolag att pausa sina investeringar i USA https://www.di.se/live/macron-uppmanar-bolag-att-pausa-sina-investeringar-i-usa/

Det skriver den vanligtvis kloke och förståndige Mattias Svensson i  SvD den 3 april 2025 under rubriken Nu våras det för vansinnet https://www.svd.se/a/QM0Ql4/trumps-tullar-visar-att-det-varas-for-vansinnet Mattias vet nog egentligen att det amerikanska handelsunderskottet är ett av världsekonomins stora, långvariga och mycket debatterade problem. Här annars några lästips för honom och alla andra. Underpinning Miran’s argument is a proposition made by the Belgian economist Robert Triffin in the early 1960s.  Triffin argued that the growing demand for dollars as a reserve asset could only be supplied by persistent US current account deficits.  This in turn meant that the dollar was persistently overvalued relative to the requirements of equilibrium in the balance of payments. Martin Wolf Financial Times 18 March 2025 The Triffin dilemma revisited Speech by Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Conference on the International Monetary S...

  Trump’s tariffs amount to  ‘worse than worst-case scenario’ https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/trumps-tariffs-amount-to-worse-than.html Det såg ju ganska bra ut i går den 2 april   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/det-sag-ju-ganska-bra-ut-i-gar-den-2.html EU är för frihandel - inom EU EU är en tullunion med tullar mot omvärlden.  När talade Hökmark sist om detta? Di:s analytiker: Så slår Trumps tullar Donald Trump har tryckt på atombombsknappen i handelskriget. Carl Johan von Seth DN https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/carl-johan-von-seth-varlden-ar-uselt-forberedd-pa-trumps-totala-tullraseri/ Mattias Svensson: Nu våras det för vansinnet Reciprociteten har dock ingen koppling till EU:s tullar mot USA – som i genomsnitt ligger på 2,43 procent.  De är i stället baserade på USA:s procentuella handelsunderskott gentemot EU, det vill säga hur mycket mer USA importerar än exporterar av varor (men inte tjänster). Handelsunderskott är en noja hos Donald Trump Ma...

  Humöret tinade  framåt kvällen. https://www.di.se/live/borsen-hamtade-upp-det-varsta-raset/ Och nu ser det ut så här There is no such thing as rational expectations. There is wishful thinking, or panic. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/there-is-no-such-thing-as-rational.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-3-april-2025.html

  U.S. stock futures and the dollar tumbled after Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on trading partners that were higher than investors had expected Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch April 2, 2025 at 6:29 p.m. ET https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-tariffs-amount-to-worse-than-worst-case-scenario-as-investors-brace-for-stock-market-beatdown-4cf6d5ca 2 April 2025 Rolfs länktips 2 april 2025; Handelskriget, Triffin, US a reactionary power Martin Wolf, fyndläge There is no such thing as rational expectations. There is wishful thinking, or panic. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/there-is-no-such-thing-as-rational.html Global stocks fell on Thursday after Donald Trump unveiled “reciprocal” tariffs on US trading partners, with investors rotating into haven assets such as gold and government bonds. Welcome to the FT’s live coverage of the global reaction to Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff measures https://www.ft.com/content/8c8062e5-2744-40ea-ad8d-40073782e51d Stock Market Today: Dow,...

Rolf Englund, many years ago (probably in 1997) https://www.internetional.se/nosuchthing.htm With the assumption of rational expectations, Lucas felt he had “eliminated the main intellectual basis” for fiscal and monetary fine-tuning of demand.  After all, cashiers could not systematically fool ride operators. “Keynesian economics is dead,” he reported in 1979.  That report proved exaggerated. The Economist 18 May 2023 Five years before the financial meltdown of 2008, Robert Lucas famously declared that “the central problem of depression-prevention has been solved . . . and it has been for many decades”. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/05/robert-lucas-was-giant-of.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-3-april-2025.html

Trump will apply a minimum 10% tariff on all exporters to the US.  The president, displaying a chart, indicated that dozens of countries with the largest trade imbalances will face even higher rates.  China will face a 34% rate, while the European Union will have a 20% levy and Vietnam is seeing a 46% tariff. Other nations slapped with larger tariffs include Japan at 24%, South Korea at 25%, India at 26%, Cambodia at 49% and Taiwan at 32%. “This is not full reciprocal. This is kind reciprocal,” Trump said. Bloomberg 2 April 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/trump-says-he-s-signing-executive-order-on-reciprocal-tariffs Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 2 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-2-april-2025.html

  Färdas i över fem gånger ljudets hastighet  har de stor kraft vid nedslag och är väldigt svåra att försvara sig emot. SvD 2 april 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/4BJP6o/kinas-nya-hot-bombplan-med-hypersoniska-robotar

On this episode of Trumponomics, we discuss whether the countries in the firing line of America’s latest tariffs should have seen this coming. Host Stephanie Flanders, Bloomberg’s head of government and economics,  is joined by  Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Times and author of several books, most recently The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism. Financial Times 2 april 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/podcast-the-roots-of-trump-s-global-trade-war Martin Wolf “The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism” Årets viktigaste bok   februari 20, 2023 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/02/martin-wolf-crisis-of-democratic.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 2 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-2-april-2025.html

Bostadsrättsföreningen Stettin 7 på Gärdet som tillhör prestigeområdet 79&Park, kräver byggbolaget på över 89 miljoner kronor Skatteverket, som i december begärde Oscar Properties byggbolag i konkurs, har ett krav på 33 miljoner kronor.  DI 2 april  2025 https://www.di.se/live/bostadsrattsforening-kraver-oscar-properties-byggbolag-pa-89-miljoner/ Den förra vd:n, grundaren Oscar Engelbert, sålde 12,4 procent av Oscar Properties för drygt 300 miljoner kronor vid aktiekursens kulmen våren 2017. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/skambud.html Ruchir Sharma What Went Wrong with Capitalism https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/ruchir-sharma-what-went-wrong-with.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 2 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-2-april-2025.html

  China, Japan and South Korea have kissed and made up after years of trade quarrels.  They have pledged to deepen ties and reorganise the Asian and global trading systems under what amounts to Chinese leadership. The picture blazoned across Asia’s front pages – though barely registering in the US – showed the trade ministers of the three economic powers holding hands in a collective gesture of Asian defiance. It is one of the most striking economic defeats suffered by America that I have witnessed in more than 40 years covering international affairs. China has launched a charm offensive to woo European officials and companies, to the point of inviting the heads of Mercedes and BMW to meet Xi Jinping. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 1 April 2025 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/01/trump-aggression-unite-formidable-anti-us-economic-alliance/ China senses an opportunity in Trump’s cultural revolution Policymakers in Beijing believe they will benefit from the destru...

  Humöret tinade  framåt kvällen. Som mest ned 2,5 procent på eftermiddagen https://www.di.se/live/borsen-hamtade-upp-det-varsta-raset/ Kursras och kronförstärkning  dubbelsmäll för småspararna DI 2 april 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/kursras-och-kronforstarkning-ger-dubbelsmall-for-smaspararna/ Bankernas aktieägare kan se tillbaka på ett bra år Tarrifs Rose Garden; minimum 10%,  China 34%, European Union 20% https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/tarrifs-rose-garden-minimum-10-china-34.html Handelskriget; Klas Eklund förstår delvis  hur de resonerar;  Miran, Martin Wolf, Triffin, Smaghi https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/handelskriget-klas-eklund-forstar.html Skakig New York-handel i väntan på Trump https://www.di.se/live/skakig-new-york-handel-i-vantan-pa-trump/ SaP 1980-2025 US a reactionary power Martin Wolf supposedly communist China is a status quo power. It is one of the most striking economic defeats suffered by America  that I have ...

När höjda prislappen för nya järnvägen Ostlänken, den 16 mil långa järnvägen mellan Järna och Linköping, 91 miljarder, lades fram ville regeringen få besked om det gick att sänka notan. Nu nödbromsar Trafikverket upphandlingarna – nya beräkningar pekar mot att det riskerat bli ”tiotals miljarder” dyrare. Det som Trafikverket själva beskriver som landets största infrastrukturprojekt i modern tid skulle enligt regeringen Reinfeldt 2012 kosta 30 miljarder och vid det här laget stå klart. https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/ostlanken-nodbromsas-riskerat-bli-tiotals-miljarder-dyrare/ Ostlänken, en ny dubbelspårig järnväg https://www.trafikverket.se/vara-projekt/projekt-som-stracker-sig-over-flera-lan/ostlanken-en-ny-dubbelsparig-jarnvag/

  The market’s initial reaction to a big event can be very wrong President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day isn’t a binary event, as there is a range of tariff policies he could announce, from the merely symbolic and performative through to actions that could transform the entire global economy.  The possibility of the former can’t be dismissed; the risk of the latter is still far from reflected in markets. The best analogy in my experience was the Lehman Weekend of September 2008, when traders left on Friday knowing that their world might change if Lehman Brothers couldn’t be rescued by Monday. It wasn’t.  John Authers Bloomberg 2 april 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-04-02/tariffs-from-lehman-to-liberation-don-t-trust-the-first-takes TARP - Troubled Asset Relief Program https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/us-counts-its-bank-bailout-billions.html We still don’t know how this movie ends - Lehman Brothers ställde in betalningarna den 15 september...

The title of the article, published in Nature Human Behaviour, spells it out:  “Socio-economic status is a social construct with heritable components and genetic consequences.” Anjana Ahuja Financial Times 2 april 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/8d8d2bab-e7c1-4bbd-979a-2c86f8bf1443

Jardine Matheson, the “most remarkable firm of traders to be involved in the opening up of China” Founded as an opium trader in 1832 and famous as an inspiration for James Clavell’s novels Tai-Pan and Noble House Financial Times 2 april 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/1425467d-4fce-4439-bc65-6ca3f9f56cfe Clavell’s novels Tai-Pan and Noble House https://www.amazon.com/s?k=tai-pan&i=stripbooks-intl-ship&crid=1BHETOVRXFHPR&sprefix=tai-pan%2Cstripbooks-intl-ship%2C166&ref=nb_sb_noss_2

Bostadspriserna enligt SBAB:s chefsekonom Robert Boije. – Människor oroar sig över vad som ska hända med räntan, säger han. Hittills i år rör det sig om en uppgång på 2,9 procent, något som Robert Boije beskriver som svagt. Villapriserna ligger nu 12 procent lägre än vid toppnoteringarna under våren 2022.  Lägenhetspriserna ligger nu 2 procent från toppen. – Människor oroar sig för vad som ska hända med räntan. Det påverkar också bostadsmarknaden, liksom att vi fortfarande har ett extremt stort utbud, säger Boije. SvD/TT 2 april 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/dR8AGB/inget-boprislyft-oro-for-rantan Höga boendekostnader gör det fortsatt tufft för hushållen  där åtta av tio väljer rörligt bolån. Det är en av slutsatserna i Finansinspektionens färska bolånerapport. DI 2 april 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/kampigt-for-hushallen-valjer-rorligt-dyrt-att-leva/ Bolånerapporten: Hushållen behöver ha marginaler för en osäker framtid https://www.fi.se/sv/publicerat/rapporter/bolanerapporter/d...

Utifrån denna pratar Mattias Svensson med författaren om teman från boken som är talande för ”en tid som man kan stå oförstående inför men är dömd att leva i”. Bland annat om islamism, västerlandet och tillståndet i akademin. SvD 1 april 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/XjL0KB/lena-andersson-om-man-och-kvinnor

 – Om man hotar med tullar kan dels ett antal europeiska och andra företag välja att producera mer i USA för att slippa tullar, som då ger inkomster till statskassan  I Mirans verktygslåda finns också ränteregleringar där man ska tvinga omvärlden att i praktiken skriva av en del av den amerikanska statsskulden, enligt Klas Eklund. SvT 2 april 2025 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/ekonomen-om-trumps-tullar-borjan-pa-ett-fullskaligt-finansiellt-krig  If one is to understand this more sophisticated approach, one should read Miran’s “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System”, published in November 2024. Underpinning Miran’s argument is a proposition made by the Belgian economist Robert Triffin in the early 1960s.  Triffin argued that the growing demand for dollars as a reserve asset could only be supplied by persistent US current account deficits.  This in turn meant that the dollar was persistently overvalued relative to the requirements of equil...

  EU ‘strong plan’ to retaliate against US tariffs Financial Times 1 April 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/19ee5f60-106c-4dd9-a55d-f7e4d36861b5 Big pic https://www.bloomberg.com/explainers/trump-s-tariffs-explained The president’s trade policy is about power and security, not economics Trump’s realpolitik rule number one is that burden sharing between America and the rest of the world must shift.  We already know about this in terms of the US push for more European defence spending. But when it comes to tariffs, there are only three numbers that matter to Trump:  the average US tariff rate on other countries is 3 per cent; Europe’s is 5 per cent; and China’s is 10 per cent. To him, and to many Americans, those figures seem fundamentally unfair.  If the president can move those averages closer together within four years without any major inflationary impact or a market crash, that will represent success to him, and to many voters. Rana Foroohar Financial Times 31 Marc...

  Europe Turns a Blind Eye to Erdogan’s Turkey;  Krim är pärlan: Sevastopol ; Lätta brigadens anfall https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/europe-turns-blind-eye-to-erdogans.html Trumps tullar kommer först i morgon. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/trumps-tullar-kommer-forst-i-morgon.html EU ‘strong plan’ to retaliate The president’s trade policy is about power and security, not economics The point here is that the use of European Parliament funds  for national   political activities is widespread throughout the EU.  Almost every single party is guilty of the same practice  for which Le Pen has been prosecuted.  Ukip certainly did it, as did every other party in our group. Richard North https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/le-pen-doms-till-fangelse.html Handeln var volatil  Alla aktier inom ”magnificent 7” lyfte, där  Tesla stod för den största uppgången, på 3,6 procent.  https://www.di.se/live/svajigt-pa-wall-stre...