The Big Take - Russia Is Spiraling Toward a $150 Billion Default Nightmare

What happens with bond payments due Wednesday could kickstart Russia's first foreign-currency default since the 1917 revolution

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-03-15/what-if-russia-defaults-on-its-debt-ukraine-war-sanctions-risk-150-billion

IMF Managing Director  said that while foreign exposure to Russia’s banking sector at $120 billion wasn’t negligible, it was “definitely not systemically relevant.”

“Even if the government halts payments to foreign investors on all their holdings of sovereign debt (local and foreign), the total of around $70 [billion] is no larger than the debt Argentina defaulted on in 2020 without causing tremors in global markets (although in Argentina’s case, bond prices didn’t fall quite as far),” 

First, there’s the possibility that underneath the aggregate numbers, a systemically important institution is heavily exposed to Russian sovereign debt and is potentially capable of sending tremors through the financial system.

Second, a sovereign default could be a prelude to defaults by Russia’s corporates, he warned, whose external debts are much larger than those of the government (chart ).

What a Russia debt default would mean for financial markets as Ukraine invasion continues - MarketWatch

 It’s hard to see how any of the western countries and companies that have imposed sanctions could justify lifting them.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/03/excluding-russia-from-global-financial.html