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2014-01-22

Varför skall man tro på Rana Foorohars lösning på Eurokrisen?

How to End the Crisis Now.  Det var den för mig lockande rubriken på en artikel i TIME av en Rana Foroohar,  Jan. 15, 2014

Det börjar lovande och jag nickar instämmande:

- The European Central Bank (ECB) calmed the markets and bought some time 18 months ago with a promise to do "whatever it takes" to save the euro, mainly via a program of aggressive and supposedly unlimited buying of short-dated European bonds.

- "It's hard to imagine that if growth remains as weak as it is, and the periphery is kept in permanent recession, that things won't eventually blow up in Europe," says Rogoff, echoing a view widely shared by many economists.

So far, so good, tyckte jag.

Hon fortsatte: The question now is, What can Europe do to put its debt debacle behind it once and for all?

Jag läste intresserad vidare.

- Making the euro zone viable over the long haul requires a common fiscal policy.
- The first step in that direction IS A BANKING UNION that creates a common mechanism for winding down failing banks as well as a credit line for backstopping any bank that threatens to explode in a Lehman Brothers — style meltdown.

Då behövs det mycket pengar förstår man när man läser vidare:

- The euro zone's financial sector has assets of about $43 trillion. Yet the bank resolution fund being suggested to support the sector would amount to only $75 billion, and only after 10 years of fundraising via levies on individual banks. That's not enough to bail out a regional bank in, say, Slovakia, let alone a major Italian or French institution.

- Anything less, and the markets won't feel that Europe really believes in itself, and bond-yield spreads will quickly diverge again at the next sign of economic turbulence, creating a chicken-and-egg cycle of banking and sovereign crises.

Och så måste Tyskland göra om sig.

- What Germany needs to do is create a stronger consumer society of its own, boosting internal demand for Italian cars and French luxury goods.

- Chancellor Angela Merkel should also make it completely clear that if other euro-zone nations continue to carry out structural reforms as Portugal and Ireland have, then the Germans will guarantee future bailouts and underwrite the economy of the union in exchange for having greater fiscal and ultimately political power transferred to the center.

"Political power transferred to the center"; det låter inte så trevligt. Det blir väl till Bryssel, Frankfurt och Berlin.

Och så behövs det QE.

- The solution could be for the ECB to start doing what the Fed has been doing for 41/2 years: buy a big and broad range of longer-dated assets in an effort to create more liquidity in the market and push the private sector into growth-oriented investments.

- The problem is that European treaties, crafted in large part under the influence of the Germans are fuzzy about whether that's actually legal.

- The upcoming German Federal Constitutional Court ruling on OMTs, outright monetary transactions  will be an important moment in that debate.

- If the court finds that the OMTs actually constitute legitimate monetary policy, rather than a kind of stealth means of bailing out failing nations, then Draghi and company would be free to do more to support the barely-there recovery.

Min kommentar är: If not, not.

Hennes fjärde råd är:

Reaffirm a Commitment to a True Political Union

- European leaders say economic unification was always meant to be the first step in greater political union.

Det är ett stort steg som jag menar man inte bör ta utan att ordentligt fråga de berörda folken.

Rana fortsätter:  The very idea of a pan-European identity is a post-World War II creation, something entirely new and manufactured in an era in which all boats were rising.

- On the other hand, the beggar-thy-neighbor politics of the E.U. is no longer sustainable.

- Europe's treaties and constitutions need to be changed to allow for true fiscal union, which should be the beginning of a movement toward true political union.

- The E.U. needs to become a United States of Europe, in which the strong can support the weak and the weak get stronger and, ultimately, enrich the union.

- Otherwise, it's inevitable that the next time there's a flare-up in the debt crisis, or any other kind of major sovereign crisis — be it a year from today or five — the world will have to wonder whether Europe really believes in itself.

Full text

Rana Foroohar is the assistant managing editor for Time magazine.  In the past, she has written for Forbes magazine and was Deputy Editor in charge of international business and economics for Newsweek, where she had previously spent six years as the London-based correspondent covering European economics and the Middle East.

For this reporting, she received the German Marshall Fund's Peter R. Weitz Prize for transatlantic reporting.

She graduated from Barnard College, Columbia University in 1992 with a B. A. in English literature

Wikipedia

The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national, and global challenges and opportunities in the spirit of the Marshall Plan.

- See more at: http://www.gmfus.org/about-gmf/#sthash.0795880a.dpuf

- Enligt Riksbanken uppgick den 31 december 1991 svenska företags och hushålls utlandsskuld till totalt 693 miljarder kr. Om man därtill lägger att utlänningarna köpt svenska likvida SEK-obligationer för 98 miljarder blir den svenska utlandaskulden 791 miljarder kr (cirka 140 miljarder dollar, vilket är mer än Brasiliens utlandsskuld).

Den totala svenska bruttoskulden var över 1 000 miljarder, inkl. stat och kommun. Det är mycket pengar.

Som jämförelse kan nämnas att Marshall-hjälpen uppgick i dagens penningvärde till dryga 400 miljarder
"Stålbadet i skuldfällan" Rolf Englund på DN Debatt 26/8 1992

Marshall-hjälpen och nästa svenska devalvering
Mycket förtroligt Eyes Only
Mail från Rolf Englund, sänt till Carl Bildt 1990-11-02. 

Utlagt på Internet 1996-10-29

"ever closer union" - The United States of Europe

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