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 Prova med att högerklicka - din webbläsare kanske kan översätta till .svenska. Pressat Wall Street stänger tungt ned Det tekniktunga Nasdaqs kompositindex backade 2 procent och Dow Jones 1,3 procent. Apple stängde på minus 5 procent, Palantir backade 4,8 procent och Amazon som sjönk tillbaka 2,3 procent. Än större var nedgången i nätverksutrustningstillverkaren Cisco  föll 12,3 procent  https://www.di.se/live/pressat-wall-street-stangde-tungt-ned/ Börsen stiger till nya rekord Stockholmsbörsen har handlats på rekordnivåer de senaste dagarna och inleder även torsdagen i positiv anda.  Strax efter öppning är breda index OMXSPI upp 0,4 procent samtidigt som storbolagsindex OMXS30 stiger 0,5 procent. DI 12 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/live/borsen-stiger-till-nya-rekord-rapportlyft-i-nibe/ Börsen inledde torsdagen uppåt men  vände ned under dagen och stängde på rött.  https://www.di.se/live/borsen-stanger-pa-minus-yubico-rasade-tvasiffrigt/ Wall Street vände...

Depreciation expenses are about to soar, making a lack of transparency a growing problem Just five big tech companies are projected to spend a total of $3 trillion on property and equipment over the next four years, and that rapid growth is making it harder to analyze their earnings. Much of the equipment these companies are buying, such as chips for artificial intelligence, will be gradually written down in value over five or six years, hitting profits. Wall Street Journal February 12, 2026  https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/big-tech-accounting-creates-a-blind-spot-in-the-ai-boom-e2d7d1eb När utgifterna för infrastruktur för artificiell intelligens uppgår till hundratals miljarder dollar hos en handfull av världens största företag, är marknaden uppmärksam. Michael Burry, den berömda investeringsförvaltaren som spelades av Christian Bale i filmen "The Big Short" från 2015, hällde nyligen olja på elden.  "Att förlänga livslängden minskar avskrivningskostnaderna och ökar ...

There is no light at the end of Cuba’s tunnel.   Photographer: Adalberto Roque/AFP/Getty Images The country has become politically isolated, with few dependable allies, as much of Latin America turns rightward and the political cost of defending Cuba's communist system has grown. Cuba's government is resorting to extreme measures to ration dwindling supplies, and the US holds most of the levers over Havana's immediate economic fate, leaving the island's leaders to consider offering concessions or doubling down on their revolutionary stance. Bloomberg February 12, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-12/cuba-is-home-alone-in-latin-america?srnd=phx-opinion President Fidel Castro och statsminister Olof Palme hälsar folket https://www.internetional.se/enprtist.html Venezuela -   We /US/ have a plan. She knows the plan. Wall Street Journal February 12, 2026  https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/u-s-energy-secretary-talks-oil-revivaland-democracyin-v...

Saabs ärkerival tar tagit ett stort steg mot att säkra ett indiskt megakontrakt värt över 300 miljarder kronor. Ett indiskt råd för inköp av försvarsmateriel har gett tummen upp till ett massivt köp av stridsflyget Rafale, som tillverkas av franska Dassault Aviation.  DI 12 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/nyheter/saab-nobbas-i-indisk-megaaffar/ Dassault blocking the €100bn Franco-German jet project https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/dassault-blocking-100bn-franco-german.html

Deutsche Bank’s global currency strategist is bearish on the dollar. If the U.S. market gets riskier, the dollar no longer works as a safe-haven. Instead of rallying during periods of risk aversion, a chart of the dollar’s relationship with equities demonstrates, according to Saravelos, this not to be true. Saravelos points out that over the past year the dollar has de-correlated from the S&P If the dollar is unattractive as a portfolio hedge, the more incentive there is to reduce dollar exposure. MarketWatch Feb. 12, 2026 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/currency-strategist-who-incurred-bessents-wrath-exposes-safe-haven-myth-of-the-dollar-b4e1125d

Majorities of voters, in both parties, think the gap between the rich and poor is a big problem and that the rich have too much power. The rise of the upper middle class. In the 1960s and ‘70s, the US had a robust middle class, and the national income distribution looked like a bell curve.  The middle class has since been hollowed out, not because people got poorer but because many families joined the ranks of the affluent. More people moved into the 75th and 90th percentiles of household income. That translates into earnings between $150,000 and $300,000, or even $400,000 if you live in an expensive city. This is all mostly a positive development. But it feels like a crisis because the economy has not fully adjusted to this new income distribution.  Too many affluent people are chasing a limited number of high-end goods and services city apartments, an elite-university education, luxury vacations, innovative health care, concert and sports tickets, and so on. Consider housing...

Svenska flygvapnet är under våren stationerat på Island där man i ett roterande schema ska bevaka Islands luftrum under Natos ledning i Nato-operationen Arctic Sentry Arctic Sentry presenterades av Natos generalsekreterare Mark Rutte i går, och är ett resultat av diskussioner mellan Nato och USA:s president Donald Trump. https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svenska-flygvapnet-aktiverat-i-nato-operationen-arctic-sentry Capable of breaking through floes up to 2.5 metres thick, China’s latest Arctic icebreaker is a powerful symbol of Beijing’s ambitions in the far north, where tensions have soared over US President Donald Trump’s attempts to claim control of Greenland. The proposed bull-nosed, nuclear-powered vessel, unveiled as a conceptual design in December, is intended to provide a prototype for Beijing’s emerging polar fleet. Financial Times February 12, 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/9d726e1a-8b64-41e8-9e29-5bda58f05b3e

Many look to China as an unassailable clean energy superpower, India’s electrification pathway may end up being even faster,  according to a new report from climate think tank Ember, with big implications for the rest of the world. India is the planet’s third-biggest climate polluter and what happens here affects everyone. The Pavagada Solar Park in Karnataka, India, on October 11, 2021. New research has found that India is electrifying faster and using fewer fossil fuels than China did at a similar level of economic development . Abhishek Chinnappa/Getty Images CNN February 11, 2026  https://edition.cnn.com/2026/02/11/climate/clean-energy-china-india-electrostates The Economist: Solar Power An energy-rich future is within reach

  Faster productivity growth allows households to save less because they anticipate higher future income, while prompting businesses to invest more because expected returns rise.  Both of these boost demand and push up real interest rates. What we do have today is extraordinarily high expectations of productivity growth, already reflected in equity prices and business investment, boosting demand well ahead of any realised supply gains. Moreover, inflation is currently running close to 3 per cent and has been above target for more than five years.  Jason Furman professor at Harvard University and a former chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers  Financial Times February 12, 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/70dc5068-1718-474d-a225-e1ab6df3b40b The Federal Reserve’s policymakers ought to ask why, with inflation stuck at 3%, investors have so confidently priced in at least two further interest-rate cuts . Core PCE inflation (the central bank’s preferre...

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/what-sweeping-revisions-and-a-blowout-month-tell-us-about-the-u-s-job-market-929b1537 USA-jobben blev fler än väntat i januari och arbetslösheten sjönk. Dollarn stärktes och räntorna steg på beskeden. Men nästan hela jobbtillväxten – 124.000 av 130.000 – kom inom hälso- och sjukvården och socialtjänsten. Så var det även under större delen av fjolåret.  Utfallen för det föregående året reviderades. Det innebar att 403.000 av de initialt 584.000 nya jobb som rapporterades under 2025 raderades ut. Börsen, som gillar både bra tryck i ekonomin och lägre räntor, rörde sig endast marginellt. Viktor Munkhammar DI 11 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/analys/sprickorna-i-fasaden-vaxer/ Stockholm och New York 11 februari 2026 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/stockholm-och-new-york-11-februari-2026.html

  Financial Times 11 February 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/3735b710-92b7-4390-99e6-b13e4cff2dee Vi tror på europeiskt samarbete och den fransk-tyska vänskapen. Men... https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/12/vi-tror-pa-europeiskt-samarbete-och-den.html

Profits have soared since the pandemic, and the market value attached to those profits even more.  The result: Capital, which includes businesses, shareholders and superstar employees, is triumphant, while the average worker ekes out marginal gains. The divergence between capital and labor helps explain the disconnect between a buoyant economy and pessimistic households. It will also play an outsize role in where the economy goes from here. Greg Ip Wall Street Journal Feb. 9, 2026 https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/capital-labor-wealth-economy-2fcf6c2f The invisible line beyond which many Americans tumble out of the middle class. As one commentator widely credited with popularizing the phrase put it: many Americans appear comfortable on the surface — living in large homes and driving pickup trucks — but are in reality just one bad shock away from bankruptcy, or worse. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/bessent-kill-line-and-k-shaped-economy.html Hur KAN det komma sig att så må...

  11 februari 2026, 08:56 Försvarsbolag pressas efter uppgifter om val i Ukraina Den svenska vapentillverkaren Saab faller över 2 procent efter att uppgifter gjort gällande att Ukraina planerar att hålla val – redan i vår. I hela Europa pressas försvarsbolag. DI 11 februari 2026 https://www.di.se/live/forsvarsbolag-pressas-efter-uppgifter-om-val-i-ukraina/ Recalibration in bond markets  ‘Fears that the economy was overheating were totally misplaced,’ says one chief executive The flat reading on retail sales, which showed that American consumer spending fizzled out at the end of last year, translated into concerns that U.S. growth may not be as strong as previously presumed  resulting in what may be a lower path for both interest rates and inflation this year.  Because the U.S. tends to lead the rest of the world, traders in Europe may be considering what this weakness could mean for the global economy. Vivien Lou Chen Bloomberg Feb. 10, 2026  https://www.marketw...

AI Can Be Transformational and Still Be a Bubble America's capital markets have rallied to finance the artificial intelligence boom, with "hyperscalers" expected to invest more than $3 trillion through 2030 in data and power infrastructure. Private-credit firms have loaned an estimated $200 billion, some of which is probably borrowed from banks. Tens of billions more are packaged into securitizations offering tranches with various levels of risk and return.  It’s hard to see where much of the exposure ultimately resides — and the picture can change rapidly as the debts mount and traders take on new positions. Regulators should be asking how the financial system and the broader economy will cope if the AI boom turns to bust, as the history of innovation suggests that most of today's big players won't reap the gains they're hoping for. The Financial Stability Oversight Council should gather data and do analysis to identify concentrations of leverage, and regulat...

  As long as the US runs a trade deficit and sends dollars overseas, foreign countries must find a home for those dollar revenues, with Treasuries remaining one of the main destinations, said Jim O’Neill, the former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management. What’s more, the actual decline in China’s holdings may be smaller than official figures suggest. Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, estimates that China’s “true” holdings of US Treasuries exceed $1 trillion, far above the $683 billion reported by the US Treasury. That’s because Beijing may have obscured its footprint by shifting assets to custodians in Europe. Belgium — whose holdings are considered to include some of those Chinese accounts — has seen its Treasury ownership quadruple since the end of 2017 to $481 billion. Bloomberg February 11, 2026   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-11/china-s-years-long-retreat-from-us-treasuries-flags-bigger-risks 11 februari 2026, 08:56

  A Chinese PLA J-16 fighter jet. One fired flares at a Taiwanese aircraft during an exercise around the island in December © Taiwan Ministry of Defense/AP  In its latest report on the Chinese military — focused on 2024 — the Pentagon said the PLA had “conducted multiple unsafe, operationally dangerous actions near allied aircraft over the last year”, including reckless acrobatic manoeuvres and discharging chaff or flares near aircraft. https://www.ft.com/content/66a59c7c-5a22-482c-9363-71cb016ceb01 How War With China Begins  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/01/how-war-with-china-begins-tsmc.html

The convergence of three technologies has made possible the reinvention of the hydrofoil Hydrofoils cause much less disruption and could therefore be permitted to travel faster. Their proponents believe they could reshape urban transport by shifting traffic from clogged roads to underused waterways. Cities around the world are starting to put these claims to the test. Candela, based in Sweden, is at the forefront of an international array of startups making electric hydrofoiling boats. The Economist 9 February 2026 https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/02/09/flying-electric-boats-could-remake-urban-transport Bärplansbåt vid Lidingö https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/01/barplansbat-vid-lidingo.html

  Stockholmsbörsen inledde med huvudindexen på nya rekordnivåer. https://www.di.se/live/eqt-draglok-pa-rekordbors-skanska-foll-pa-rapport/ Grönt på USA-börserna – teknikjättar starkt uppå t https://www.di.se/live/gront-pa-usa-borserna-teknikjattar-starkt-uppat/

  https://www.ekonomifakta.se/sakomraden/makroekonomi/inflation-och-styrrantor/styrrantan_1208883.html

A question is whether current holders of US debt would be willing or even able to bear the costs of selling it, given the logic of mutual assured destruction (MAD).  If de-dollarizing governments were to coordinate a mass sale of US Treasuries and other assets, the damage to their own central banks and private financial institutions’ balance sheets would be twofold.  A mass sale of dollar assets would drive down their price, forcing banks to take a hit; and their remaining dollar assets would also fall sharply in value. Moreover the euro to appreciate sharply, damaging eurozone member states’ substantial export sectors.  Erin Lockwood Project Syndicate Feb 9, 2026 https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/sell-america-future-of-dollar-hegemony-by-erin-lockwood-2026-02

Lagarde sade att hon har stor respekt för Villeroys ”personliga beslut” att lämna posten som Frankrikes centralbankschef efter 11 år av ”lojal och hängiven tjänst för både Frankrikes och Europas gemensamma bästa”. Villeroy tar nu över ordförandeskapet för Fondation des Apprentis d’Auteuil, där han kommer att använda sina talanger till förmån för utsatta ungdomar och familjer genom utbildningsprogram, sociala program och yrkesutbildningsprogram. https://www.di.se/live/frankrikes-centralbankschef-avgar-i-fortid/ France’s central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau is stepping down early to run a charitable foundation,  allowing French President Emmanuel Macron to fill the key role by this summer and before the presidential election of 2027. Financial Times February 9, 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/f7207116-a485-431e-9a8a-163e2d92cde5

All the levers of economic stimulus in America are pushed to the maximum, setting the conditions for torrid overheating and an unstable boom by the end of the year. Bank deregulation, credit expansion, a weaker dollar, lower interest rates, stealth quantitative easing (QE) and neo-socialist affordability gimmicks are combining to stretch the economic cycle and deliver roaring growth in time for the mid-term elections in November. Dario Perkins from TS Lombard compares it to Britain’s “Barber Boom” in 1972. Anthony Barber, the Tory chancellor, unshackled the banks and let rip with corporate tax cuts, insisting that it was safe because his supply-side measures would raise the non-inflationary speed limit of the UK economy to 5pc.  Many cheered him on at the time. It was the zeitgeist. Barber got his boom. It lasted around 18 months. I am old enough to remember the crushing stagflationary bust that followed. “Stagflation” remains a word not uttered in the polite company of the financi...

US payment processing companies account for about two-thirds of card transactions in Eurozone “We are highly dependent on international [payment] solutions,” said Martina Weimert, chief executive of the European Payments Initiative (EPI), a consortium of 16 European banks and financial services companies. Financial Times February 9, 2026  https://www.ft.com/content/fcc215bb-b7b8-4a62-87ed-03f603eb3d14 Trump done more to unite Europe than any European https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/trump-om-euroa-5-februari-2026.html Vad är det som har en flagga, en nationaldag, en nationalsång, en militärstyrka, ett parlament och en högsta domstol.  En stat, naturligtvis. Vad är det mer en stat har? Jo, en valuta. Det är därför europas ledande politiker har infört euron.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/08/germanys-foreign-minister-heiko-maas.html

In early 1930 the market recovered half of the value lost from 1929. Then things got bad. The Dow was down a third by the end of 1930. It fell by half in 1931.  By 1932 it was down 80% from the 1929 peak.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/09/crash-of-1929-it-was-fomo-plus-debt-its.html FDR’s attempts to revive the economy are viewed as a failure in light of the devastating second depression that occurred in 1937-38. Instead, the Great Depression finally ended with the explosive growth of military expenditures starting in mid-1940.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2018/10/fdrs-attempts-to-revive-economy-are.html

Now imagine what happens when equity analysts — already well known for their corporate obsequiousness /Obsequiousness means excessive, often insincere eagerness to please or obey someone in authority, usually in a way that feels fawning or servile/ and pack mentality — are all listening to the same quarterly earnings report, and using the same one or two AI models to transcribe, analyze and suggest advice based on that call.  If market participants are all drawing from the same models trained on largely the same historic data, it’s probable they’ll not only miss the black swan events that have never happened before, but reach similar conclusions and investment strategies. Parmy Olson Bloomberg February 9, 2026  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-09/anthropic-claude-financial-markets-should-brace-for-ai-groupthink   Parmy Olson is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering technology. A former reporter for the Wall Street Journal and Forbes, she is author of “S...

So much has changed, and there are so many uncertainties, from the financial (what’s going on with tech stocks?) to the cosmic (what will the new economic world order look like?). To make matters worse, there is no haven — not gold, not crypto, not even US Treasuries. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/us-bonds-have-never-been-risk-free.html There is a way to manage this environment: Embrace Finance 101.  Recall the basics you learned in financial literacy class in high school, or in that one finance course you took in college, or while getting your MBA, or just from reading the classics on investing. Everything you need to know to manage this market environment is contained in a few nuggets of wisdom. Markets are efficient after all. This does not mean that prices are always “correct,” just that they generally reflect the available information.  Diversify. The so-called Magnificent 7’s growth has been so spectacular they dominate the S&P, and their performance seem...

I december 2024 fick amerikanen Richard Z Wimmel ett brev från sitt försäkringsbolag. Budskapet: hans hus, i en branddrabbad del av Kalifornien, går inte att försäkra längre. Riskerna är för stora. Och han är inte ensam. I New York Times, som skildrat Richard Z Wimmels öde, rapporterades i december förra året att 1,9 miljoner amerikaner fått sina försäkringar uppsagda. När förra vinterns omfattande bränder slog till i Kalifornien stod tusentals drabbade oförsäkrade. Nu varnar Finansinspektionen för att Sverige står för liknande risker, om än i betydligt mindre omfattning. Särskilt bostäder i områden med stor risk för översvämning ligger i farozonen. Bilden är från översvämningar i Gävle 2021, en av de kostsammaste händelserna  för försäkringsbolagen någonsin. Foto: Fredrik Sandberg/TT DN 9 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/maste-hoja-premierna-sa-slar-klimatkrisen-mot-din-forsakring/ Florida’s housing market in an era of increasingly destructive climate disasters https://engl...

Men bakom de svaga siffrorna spirar en optimism i mäklarkåren om att 2026 kommer att innebära fortsatt återhämtning och stigande priser. Antalet bostadsaffärer sjönk i januari jämfört med i fjol.   Foto: Linus Sundahl-Djerf DN 6 februari 2026 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/kylslagen-start-pa-bostadsmarknaden-2026/ https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/krugman-why-fed-did-what-it-did-and-why.html