This Recession May Be Mild. The Second One Will Be Worse.

Federal Reserve policy is still highly stimulative. The official Fed Funds Rate is now pegged at 1.50-1.75%, but the consumer-price index has risen by 8.6% over the last year, yielding a real or inflation-adjusted fed funds rate of approximately minus 7%. 

This is a highly stimulative fed funds rate by any measure.

 If the policy of the Federal Reserve were truly restrictive, one would expect the fed funds rate and Treasury yield curve to be above the inflation rate.

The mild recession of the first half of 2022 may well be followed by a more severe recession in early 2023,  a repeat of the history of the early 1980s

The initial dip occurred during the first three quarters of 1980, followed by a second dip that lasted from the third quarter of 1981 until the fourth quarter of 1982.

Robert Heller MarketWatch 12 July 2022 

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/economics-recession-downturn-fed-51657574747

Robert Heller is a Former Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Fed, Easing Too Soon Risks Repeat of Stop-and-Go 1970s

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/fed-easing-too-soon-risks-repeat-of.html