Bill Gross buy dips in bonds, stocks and commodities: just don’t.
The former bond king said one-year Treasury bills are a better alternative to almost any other investments, as the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes lead to a “strong” possibility of recession.
Gross, whose net worth amounts to $1.2 billion according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index, retired from asset management in 2019, but still regularly updates his investment views on his website.
Bloomberg 11 July 2022
Gross’s rates forecast (“to 3.5 and fast”) is exactly what the Fed says it is going to do
and exactly what the Fed funds futures market is pricing in — it has the Fed at 3.44 per cent by December.
So Gross’s point has to be that the Fed knows what it needs to do, and the futures market knows what that is, but the stock and bond markets don’t understand the severity of the implications of that.
Robert Armstrong, US Financial Commentator FT 12 July 2022
Stocks are trading at valuation levels that are seen as highs -- not lows.
The current price-to-sales metric, for instance, is at the same level of market tops in 2020, 2018 and at the tech bubble in 2000
A US inflation reading on Wednesday is expected to get closer to 9%
Bill Gross warns Fed rate rises will ‘crack the US economy’
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/03/bill-gross-warns-fed-rate-rises-will.html
Englunds lag 3
Räntan (A) är vad som behövs för att stoppa inflationen.
Räntan (B) är den som gör att bostadsmarknaden kollapsar.
Om A är större än B har vi ett stort problem.
Englund: Englunds lag 3 (Inflation and the housing market) (englundmacro.blogspot.com)
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