The stock market could fall by 40% or 50%, but would the Fed ever let this happen?
The models of Grantham, Hussman and others might show that the stock market could fall by 40% or 50%, but would the Fed ever let this happen?
Ever since Alan Greenspan, there has been an apparent Fed “put option” that cushions the fall.
John Authers Bloomberg 24 January 2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-24/our-stock-market-bubble-biases-deserve-the-closest-scrutiny
Where’s That ‘Fed Put’? Dip Buyers Confront the Market’s New Reality
Bloomberg 21 Januiary 2022
https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/01/wheres-that-fed-put.html
Fed still has its foot on the accelerator:
real interest rates after taking into account inflation are extremely negative.
While it is on course to stop its quantitative easing stimulus programme at the end of this quarter, it continues to inject funds into a marketplace sloshing with liquidity.
Mohamed El-Erian FT 24 January 2022
https://www.ft.com/content/6bed7dff-f5e2-4105-a948-449f2d80ad32
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