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2021-02-27

From 1966 to 1997 inflation was the primary driver of the markets

In general, the bond market and the stock market moved in opposite directions. 

Starting in 1997–8 up until (maybe) this week, they mostly moved in tandem. 

If we see what The Bank Credit Analyst calls a regime change, where once again bond yields and stocks diverge, that means that as rates go up, the stock market will fall.

The single biggest danger to the stock market is that the Federal Reserve in particular and central banks in general, “lose the narrative.” When the market stops believing the Fed can control interest rates and influence markets, we enter a scary new world, and likely a bear market for stocks.

John Mauldin February 26, 2021

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-great-jobs-reset#interest

The Fed has lost control of bond markets - and Europe is the victim





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