Englund

The crisis is overwhelming Pakistan’s fragile economy, throwing millions of households into misery, shredding government finances and shutting down industry. China built and financed the plants, but Pakistan pledged to repay the cost—along with a rich premium on top—by buying the electricity produced by them for as long as 40 years.  Worse still, Pakistan promised to repay the cost over just 10 years, meaning it had to charge sky-high prices for the electricity. The deal was also financed in dollars.  Soon after the Chinese plants started coming on stream in late 2017, Pakistan’s currency devalued by about half, sending the dollar-denominated debt soaring. Wall Street Journal 3 December 2024 https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/pakistan-energy-debt-china-8cfcee3d Pakistan  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=Pakistan+ Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-3-december-2024.html

  Investors placing bets against the U.S. stock market,  which is headed for another solid year, are increasingly giving up. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarians-arent-being-rewarded-and-short-sellers-of-u-s-stocks-are-giving-up-says-citigroup-9e9c86d6 Art Cashin, director of floor operations at the New York Stock Exchange for UBS, whose career in the industry spanned more than six decades, has died at the age of 83. Perhaps Cashin’s most famous quip dates back to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, when he remarked during an interview with CNBC that it appeared traders were betting on the end of the world. That’s rarely a smart idea, he observed at the time. After all, the end of the world is an exceedingly rare event — it can only happen once. “You never bet on the end of the world, ’cause that only happens once and something that happens once in infinity is a long shot,” he said during an interview with CNBC’s Bob Pisani in October 2009. MarketWatch 3 Decem...

Christopher Clark ställer frågan i inledningen till sin mäktiga Revolutionary Spring. PJ Anders Linder Axess https://www.axess.se/artiklar/forandringens-vindar/ 1848 and all that https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/08/1848-and-all-that.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-3-december-2024.html

  Being in the Wall Street forecasting business often seems like a brutal job in many respects.  apologies to Sam Ro here https://x.com/SamRo/status/471076295552430080 Goldman Sachs. Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and US Equity Strategist David Kostin Kostin sees the S&P 500 closing out 2025 at 6,500, which would represent about a 7.5% increase from where the index stands right here. This year, calendar 2024, the largest companies, the Magnificent Seven as they're called, those companies had 33% expected earnings growth around 33%.  And that compares [to] around 3% for the 493 remaining companies in the S&P 500. Bloomberg 2 December 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-12-02/gdp-normally-increases-2-to-3-and-stocks-normally-go-up Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-3-december-2024.html

  The exercise required a group of more than 50 City of London institutions to model how a period of intense stress would ripple through the increasingly important non-bank sector. It underlines how regulators are shifting their focus to risks arising outside the banking system. Financial Times 29 November 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/139a0862-1d14-44c7-87a9-fab6a860032d Banks Need to Worry About Shadow Banks Global supervisors at the Financial Stability Board call these non-bank financial intermediaries. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/11/banks-need-to-worry-about-shadow-banks.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-3-december-2024.html

The contagion to the rest of the euro zone has so far been minimal — suggesting that the European Central Bank’s promise to act as a lender of last resort, made under duress in 2012, is still having a powerful effect.  When the bloc’s sovereign debt crisis  https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/fixed-income/european-sovereign-debt-crisis/ broke out in 2010, there was thought to be a real solvency risk attaching to countries at the European periphery, particularly the so-called PIIGS — Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.  The Macrons and Trumps on Bastille Day 2017.   This time around, the extra spreads that they must pay to investors compared to bunds have remained very stable.   John Authers Bloomberg 3 december 2024   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-03/france-s-cold-hasn-t-spread-to-rest-of-europe-yet Anders Borg (TT): Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska ban...

Riksbanken väntas till hösten 2025 ha sänkt styrräntan fyra eller fem gånger, till 1,75 eller 1,50 procent,  enligt en rapport från storbanken SEB:s ekonomer om hur prissättningen på penningmarknaden ser ut. Sänkningarna antas komma steg för steg. Första steget i den fortsatta nedgången, på 0,25 procentenheter, väntas meddelas den 19 december.  DI/TT 3 december 2024  https://www.di.se/live/marknaden-styrrantan-kan-ga-ner-till-1-5-procent/ Marknaden tror på åtta sänkningar september 24, 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/09/marknaden-tror-pa-atta-sankningar.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 3 december 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-3-december-2024.html

  Meanwhile, in the Transcaucasia region, a long day’s drive northeast from Aleppo, a decision by the government of  Georgia to end its bid to join the European Union drew huge crowds into the streets of the capital Tbilisi.  They fought rolling street battles with riot police, exchanging fireworks and other projectiles for water-cannon blasts. Marc Champion is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Europe, Russia and the Middle East.  Marc Champion Bloomberg 3 december 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-03/syria-georgia-and-ukraine-just-gave-us-a-glimpse-of-the-post-american-world Det Östliga Partnerskapet?  Grannskapspolitiken är, enligt EU, Den europeiska grannskapspolitiken har till syfte att upprätta särskilda förbindelser med EU:s grannländer i öster, i södra Kaukasus och söder om Medelhavet, som inte kan bli medlemmar i EU.  Grannskapspolitiken utvecklades redan 2003 för att EU:s grannländer skulle kunna dra nytta av fördel...

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/french-bonds-fall-as-le-pen-piles-pressure-on-barnier-again Förstör Joe Biden sitt eftermäle? Ja. Trump was impeached in 2019 for pressuring Zelenskyy https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/forstor-joe-biden-sitt-eftermale-ja.html The mother of all bubbles https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-mother-of-all-bubbles.html The Fed’s Next Big Policy Rethinking https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-feds-next-big-policy-rethinking.html The West Huntington https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-west.html Wall Street stängde i grönt –  halvledarbolag fortsatte att rusa https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-stangde-i-gront-halvledarbolag-fortsatte-att-rusa/ Industrijättar i täten på munter Stockholmsbörs https://www.di.se/live/industrijattar-i-taten-pa-munter-stockholmsbors/ Det får anses som lågt när inflationsmålet är 2 procent. Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-30-november-...

Next year, the US Federal Reserve will undertake an exercise with global implications: the periodic monetary policy framework review, at which it rethinks its approach to managing the world’s largest economy. March 2022, interest rates were still near zero and the Fed was still buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to push down longer-term rates providing extraordinary stimulus even as the economy overheated.  Fed needs a framework for quantitative easing, the asset purchases it has used to provide added stimulus (and for its reversal, known as quantitative tightening).  Second, a regime is needed to assess the costs and benefits of quantitative measures March 2022: the Fed purchased $1.4 trillion in asset at a time when it was pretty clear that the development of Covid vaccines and the Biden administration’s immense fiscal stimulus would obviate the need for the added monetary stimulus.  Those purchases will end up costing the U.S. taxpayer more than $100 bill...

The idea of America as an exceptional nation, superior to its rivals and therefore destined to lead the world, seems passé to most observers. In political, diplomatic and military circles, the talk is of a dysfunctional superpower, isolationist abroad and polarised at home.  But in the investing world, the term “American exceptionalism” is hotter than ever.     As a result, the US accounts for nearly 70 per cent of the leading global stock index, up from 30 per cent in the 1980s.  And the dollar, by some measures, trades at a higher value than at any time since the developed world abandoned fixed exchange rates 50 years ago. This is not a bubble in US markets, it’s mania in global markets. Ruchir Sharma Financial Times 2 Decembe r 2024 The writer is chair of Rockefeller International. His latest book is ‘What Went Wrong With Capitalism’  https://www.ft.com/content/49cca8d7-7b6e-47e3-a50c-9557d7c85fc0  March 2022: the Fed purchased $1.4 trillion in asse...

USA är i dag djupt splittrat och halva landet kommer nu att bli ännu mer övertygade om att Demokraterna i allmänhet och Joe Biden i synnerhet är korrupta och ”fuskar” så fort de kan. Det senare är ett ord som Donald Trump flitigt använt om Biden och hans parti under valkampen. Samtidigt är president Biden vad som i USA kallas för en ”lame duck”. Han har sju veckor kvar på sin mandatperiod och det kommer inte att bli några politiska konsekvenser för honom av beslutet.  Väljarna har redan gett sin dom över Biden och hans vicepresident Kamala Harris genom att skicka tillbaka Trump till Vita huset. Therese Larsson Hultin SvD 2 december 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/1My7al/biden-kommer-minnas-som-korrupt Trump was impeached in 2019 for pressuring Zelenskyy to open criminal probes into Joe Biden and his son Hunter over their business dealings in Ukraine https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/zelenskyy-congratulated-trump.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 2 ecember 2024 https://englundmacr...

  Via Robert Kaplan Huntington, The Davos Man and The Clash of Civilizations, Ambrose https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/01/huntington-davos-man-and-clash-of.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 2 ecember 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/rolfs-lanktips-2-ecember-2024.html

 Massmördaren Bashar Assad har inga vänner i USA och Europa, och om Donald Trump tänker satsa på att försvaga Iran så är Syrien Irans mest sårbara punkt. Den sunnimuslimska strömning president Recep Tayyip Erdogan tillhör anser att minoritetsstyret i Syrien – en koalition av shiiter, druser, kristna och alawiter – är ett historiskt misstag som helst borde rättas till.  Om rebellerna håller stånd så öppnar sig rika möjligheter för en invecklad internationell kris. Alla de fyra närmast berörda makterna har militärbaser i Syrien: Turkiet, Iran, Ryssland och USA.  En femte makt, Israel, bombar Syrien ett par gånger i veckan. Nathan Shachar DN 1 December 2024 https://www.dn.se/varlden/nathan-shachar-upplagt-for-stormaktskollison-efter-att-aleppo-fallit/ Rebel forces push south toward Hama after capturing Aleppo President Assad may not be able to rely on Russia and Iran Russia’s intervention in Syria’s civil war almost a decade ago turned the tide in Assad’s favor, but this tim...

Centrist and left-wing tactical alliances designed to thwart Marine Le Pen’s National Rally from taking a majority of seats, thus producing an unworkable parliament divided into three roughly equal blocs — Le Pen and Macron’s groups, plus an ungainly left-wing coalition.  Le Pen is now aiming to show that she holds the power in this situation It’s possible that Le Pen is bluffing The Franco-German axis remains at the heart of the EU. It looks unlikely to set a budget within the agreed euro-zone parameters, and so the issue casts doubt on the currency area’s viability ECB might buy French bonds to help, but Barclays argues that it’s unlikely to do so because of requirements that French public debt be on a sustainable path. It could, however, act to rein in any contagion to other countries’ bonds. John Authers Bloomberg 2 December 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-12-02/france-budget-crisis-is-le-pen-for-turning-macron-and-barnier-can-t-bank-on-it

  Of course, the merits of independent central banking can be overstated.  Central bankers have credited themselves with delivering sustained low inflation in the 1990s and 2000s — the Great Moderation — when in reality stable prices were largely the product of a global labour market shock.  This resulted from the incorporation of China and other developing countries into the world economy. The ability to carry out monetary policy insulated from governmental pressure is clearly valuable.  The logic is that elected governments have an incentive to lower unemployment in the short run at the expense of longer run impacts on inflation and growth. They also have an incentive, when heavily indebted, to rely on inflation to reduce the real value of debt obligations. US economy will confront big supply shocks coinciding with expansionary fiscal policy. John Plender Financial Times 29 November 2024 https://www.ft.com/content/3963b783-00da-44df-a45b-39b54b9f7c78 The Great Mode...

  https://www.svd.se/a/vgVa6p/skitstovelns-bil-staller-fraga-om-lyx-jaguar-lar-av-hermes Rebel forces in Syria have taken control of the "majority" of the country's second-largest city, Aleppo https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rebel-forces-in-syria-have-taken.html 2016 tog president Bashar al-Assads styrkor tillbaka Aleppo https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/2016-tog-president-bashar-al-assads.html Ukraine’s endgame https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/ukraines-endgame.html Is the era of central bank independence drawing to a close? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/12/is-era-of-central-bank-independence.html The forward price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 for 2025 is 22. Historically very high. Take out the Magnificent Seven? It is only 16, fairly middle-of-the-road. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-forward-price-to-earnings-ratio-of.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-29-november-2024.html...