Evergrande - China will almost certainly avert a Minsky crisis, but...
it may not avert a long grinding semi-slump that profoundly changes the world’s perception of the country.
Those who have pre-bought homes will top the creditor pecking order: largely protected in the name of social stability.
The big state lenders will be cushioned by central bank liquidity. Chinese investors who sank money into Evergrande through “wealth management products” will suffer haircuts.
Bondholders on the offshore dollar market can kiss goodbye to $19bn.
Shareholders and foreign “tourists” will get nothing.
The authorities will lean on state banks to keep lending developers enough to stay afloat.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Telegraph 22 September 2021
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/09/22/evergrande-marks-end-chinas-economic-miracle/
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