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2021-05-04

How concerned should you be that the CAPE for the U.S. stock market is the highest in the world?

The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio (CAPE) made famous by Yale University finance professor (and Nobel laureate) Robert Shiller. 

The CAPE currently stands at 36.6 for the S&P 500. 

That’s higher than 98% of monthly readings since 1881, and more than double the 140-year average, suggesting an extremely overvalued market.

Mark Hulbert MarketWatch 3 May 2021

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-markets-cape-is-now-the-worlds-highest-and-this-gives-stock-investors-little-cover-11620004719


The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio made famous by Robert Shiller at over 22 times, this measure of earnings is still uncomfortably above the long-term average.

it is a handful of technology and consumer discretionary stocks that have lifted the overall valuation of the US market. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 31 times on average. 

When you strip out these stocks, the forward PE comes down to under 20 times.

/Chart showing this is also historically high/

FT 4 May 2021

https://www.ft.com/content/211ab2b8-7af6-40fe-96b2-04f7704dac73

  

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