In both Greece and Japan, excessive debts will be reduced by means previously regarded as unthinkable. Turner
Since 2010, official discussion of Greek debt has moved fitfully from fantasy to gradually dawning reality.
The rescue program for Greece launched that year assumed that a falling debt ratio could be achieved without any private debt write-offs.
After a huge restructuring of privately held debt in 2011, the ratio was forecast to reach 124% by 2020, a target the International Monetary Fund believed could be achieved, “but not with high probability.”
Today, the IMF believes that a debt ratio of 173% is possible by 2020, but only if Greece’s official European creditors grant significant further debt relief.
A significant write-down is inevitable, and the longer it is put off, the larger it eventually will be.
Adair Turner, Project Syndicate 10 June 2016
The rescue program for Greece launched that year assumed that a falling debt ratio could be achieved without any private debt write-offs.
After a huge restructuring of privately held debt in 2011, the ratio was forecast to reach 124% by 2020, a target the International Monetary Fund believed could be achieved, “but not with high probability.”
Today, the IMF believes that a debt ratio of 173% is possible by 2020, but only if Greece’s official European creditors grant significant further debt relief.
A significant write-down is inevitable, and the longer it is put off, the larger it eventually will be.
Adair Turner, Project Syndicate 10 June 2016
Adair Turner, former chairman of the Financial Services Authority, in his book Between Debt and the Devil.
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