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Visar inlägg från februari, 2025

What the AI Race and the Euro Have in Common

Weirdly enough, the race for AI supremacy reminds me of the development of the euro zone. George Soros gave this incredible speech in June 2012,  https://www.georgesoros.com/2012/06/02/remarks_at_the_festival_of_economics_trento_italy/ right in the heart of the European debt crisis where he talked about how the whole project had always been something of a “bubble” but not in the traditional financial markets aspect. It’s a long speech, but these are the paragraphs that stick in my head: “I contend that the European Union itself is like a bubble. In the boom phase the EU was what the psychoanalyst David Tuckett calls a ‘fantastic object’ – unreal but immensely attractive.  The EU was the embodiment of an open society – an association of nations founded on the principles of democracy, human rights, and rule of law in which no nation or nationality would have a dominant position. The process of integration was spearheaded by a small group of far sighted statesmen who practiced wh...

SSU: En ny världsordning

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  Sedan andra världskriget har vi förlitat oss på det transatlantiska löftet, där den gemensamma säkerhetspolitiken gynnat USA:s maktställning.  I utbyte har Europa fått skydd mot Ryssland.  USA:s agerande underminerar Natos grundbult - att medlemsländerna hedrar löftet om ett kollektivt försvar. Den garanti som USA varit för Europa sedan andra världskriget är över.  Europa står nu ensamt. SSU menar därför att om Europa ska uppnå strategisk autonomi   “Strategic autonomy must be the battle of Europe,”  Macron Urges European Strategic Autonomy https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/04/macron-urges-european-strategic-autonomy.html behövs politiska omtag på tre områden:  försvars- och säkerhetspolitiken, den ekonomiska politiken samt en utrikespolitik som gör Europa till en trovärdig och inflytelserik diplomatisk aktör DI 28 Februari 2025 https://www.di.se/debatt/ssu-en-ny-varldsordning-kraver-politiska-omtag/ Sanningens minut närmar sig för Ulf Kris...

Sanningens minut närmar sig för Ulf Kristersson. Skall han falla undan för trycket? Eller stå fast?

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  Är det dags för Sverige att överge den kritiska synen på EU-gemensam upplåning? SvD 27 februari 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/kwLvJv/bor-eu-lana-gemensamt-till-upprustningen Federalisterna utnyttjar varje tillfälle att försöka skapa ett principgenombrott, på vägen till ett Europas Förenta Stater Kommentar RE: EUs mål är att skapa en bankunion och att ge EU rätt att ta upp egna lån.  Är det Covid, tar man tillfället i akt. Likaså kan man motivera det med Klimatet.  Är det Ukraina så är det ett bra skäl att ta upp egna lån.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/federalisterna-utnyttjar-varje.html EU-ledarna Nästan alla pläderar fortfarande för nya, gemensamma lån https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/eu-ledarna-nastan-alla-pladerar.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 28 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-28-februari-2025.html

Rolfs länktips 28 Februari 2025

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   “What happened to sentiment? Everywhere you look,  fear has set into the collective mood,”  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-happened-to-sentiment-everywhere.html Jeremy Grantham Warns US Stocks Are About to Be Crushed https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/jeremy-grantham-warns-us-stocks-are.html Det har varit många tunga år för oss björnar https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/06/det-har-varit-manga-tunga-ar-for-oss.html Och tänk om Dip Buyers kommer igen. Hu. SSU: En ny världsordning  Strategisk autonomi https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/ssu-en-ny-varldsordning.html What the AI Race and the Euro Have in Common https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/what-ai-race-and-euro-have-in-common.html Det bästa jag läst om euron, och jag har läst mycket. Sanningens minut närmar sig för Ulf Kristersson.  Skall han falla undan för trycket? Eller stå fast? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/sanningens-minut-narmar-sig-for-ulf.html...

EU satsar kvarts miljard på datorspel: ”En 'gamechanger'”

Finansiering i ett tidigt skede är avgörande för att nästa generations spelutvecklare”, säger Thomas Östros, vice ordförande i EIB – som också är största enskilda långivare till krisande Northvolt. DI 27 februari 2025 https://www.di.se/digital/eu-satsar-kvarts-miljard-pa-datorspel-en-gamechanger/ The European Investment Bank is the lending arm of the European Union. https://www.eib.org/en/index Thomas Östros https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_%C3%96stros Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 28 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-28-februari-2025.html

Jeremy Grantham Warns US Stocks Are About to Be Crushed

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The famed value investor says on this week’s Merryn Talks Money that a “major decline” is imminent.  “The longer and the higher they climb, the worse it is.” In this week’s episode of Merryn Talks Money, host Merryn Somerset Webb interviews GMO co-founder and notorious caller of market bubbles Jeremy Grantham. Bloomberg 28 February 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-28/podcast-gmo-s-jeremy-grantham-on-super-bubbles-ai-fertility Jeremy Grantham on my blogg https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/search?q=Jeremy+Grantham+ SvD 16 februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/vad-hander-egentligen-med-ekonomin-nar.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 28 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-28-februari-2025.html

Donald Trump and Elon Musk are revolutionising presidential communication

Mr Trump is narrating his presidency for the public as they never could. He is fusing America’s media and its state like no president before him, and as a result  his administration seems to be talking about everything everywhere all at once. Mr Trump has appointed people to top posts who may lack management or other relevant experience but can fluently communicate via new and old forms of media. The Economist 27 February 2025 https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/02/27/america-has-never-had-state-media-like-it-does-today How Trump wields and uses attention.  Kamala Harris and Tim Walz and before them, Joe Biden, they were just terrified of an interview going badly.  And Trump and Vance — they were all over the place, including in places very hostile to them. Vance had a ton of interviews that went badly. But they were everywhere.  Because they cared about the volume of attention and were completely fine with the energy that negative attention could unlock. ht...

“What happened to sentiment? Everywhere you look, fear has set into the collective mood,”

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  But what’s remarkable about the current bout of worry is that as of Wednesday’s close the S&P 500 was down by merely 3.1% from its record finish, set just a week earlier on Feb. 19. “It takes a lot less to strike fear into investors than it has in the past,” the analysts wrote.  “If there is one word to describe the state of investor sentiment right now, complacent it is not.” MarketWatch 27 February 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/extremely-fearful-stock-market-sentiment-shows-investors-scare-easily-right-now-75d2edc2 Rolfs länktips 19 Februari 2025 Time Machine https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-19-februari-2025.html For two years, Wall Street traders have minted profits simply by chasing the hottest stocks in the market regardless of price, fundamentals or the economic backdrop.  Those days appear to be over. Killing the so-called momentum trade that’s been driving the latest stock market rally. “The S&P 500 has welcomed lower yie...

ETFs - exchange-traded funds; the greatest development in modern financial history

 For retail investors, exchange-traded funds, and the index-tracking investment they facilitate, are the greatest development in modern financial history.  The largest 15 equity-focused ETFs contain $3.9trn in assets The Economist 26 February 2025 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/02/26/how-cheap-can-investing-get Fotnot: En trn är 1.000 miljarder.  Och det är dollar. I kronor är det således drygt 10.000 miljarder kr.  3,9 trn är således närmare 40.000 miljarder kr. Går börsen ner med 10 procent betyder det 4.000 mrd kronor försvinner från tillgångssidan. Skuldsidan är oförändrad. Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 27 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-27-februari-2025.html Wall Street’s top securities regulator has raised concerns about a private credit exchange traded fund from State Street and Apollo that began trading on Thursday, in a blow to the two Wall Street groups. The fund is designed to open private credit,...

Von der Leyen’s defense plan strider mot fördraget

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  The first initiative is designed to allow for more spending by member states by loosening fiscal rules. According to some officials, this could help mobilize at least €160 billion The second part consists of enabling spending at the EU level with a new joint instrument. Some senior EU officials and member states are calling for the possibility of joint borrowing, but the idea is always controversial and splits the bloc. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-27/trump-shocks-europe-into-defense-spending-shakeup RE: Men det strider vad jag förstår mot EUs grundlag, Fördraget. Ms Merkel does not say “no” to eurozone bonds.  She says: “Not without treaty change.”  The German constitutional court in Karlsruhe would never allow Germany’s sovereign guarantee to be given to its eurozone partners without them submitting to effective and centrally budgeted discipline. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2017/04/mr-macron-has-proposed-common-fiscal.html “I had one concern,”...

Rolfs länktips 27 Februari 2025

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  Donald Trump said he had decided to slap  25 per cent tariffs on imports from the EU https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/donald-trump-said-he-had-decided-to.html https://www.ft.com/content/8c633f79-2cc3-4bb6-a4a8-6c73e460a5e3  Breda nedgångar på Wall Street – största  fallet för Nvidia sedan Deepseek-raset https://www.di.se/live/breda-nedgangar-pa-wall-street-storsta-fallet-for-nvidia-sedan-deepseek-raset/ https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-02-27-2025 Stockholmsbörsen föll https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-foll-saab-steg-mot-strommen/   Make Them a Mar-a-Lago Accord They Can’t Refuse https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/make-them-mar-lago-accord-they-cant.html Friedrich Merz ugly political maneuver; Debt brake https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/friedrich-merz-ugly-political-maneuver.html Trump Shocks Europe Into Chasing Billions for Military Buildup Von der Leyen’s defense plan strider mot fördraget htt...

Nonsensinformation

På tolv års sikt väntar sig hushållen att inflationstakten ska ligga på 7,5 procent  Felicia Åkerman DI 27 februari 2025 https://www.di.se/nyheter/trist-dubbelsmocka-for-riksbanken/ RE: Om de frågade mig, jag är ett hushåll, skulle jag svara: Har ingen aning. Riksbanken förefaller inte heller ha någon välgrundad mening om vad inflationen blir nästa kvartal.

Friedrich Merz ugly political maneuver; Debt brake

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  Friedrich Merz is mulling using the outgoing parliament to approve €200 billion ($210 billion) of new borrowing to beef up the military.  Merz shares the blame for having to consider such an ugly political maneuver, yet it might be the least-bad option to rebuild the country’s threadbare armed forces.  His sudden embrace of massive borrowing looks opportunistic and anti-democratic.   Long an ardent trans-Atlanticist, Merz now says Europe must become “independent” from the US and that “the fate of Europe matters very little to certain Americans,”  And it’s a reminder that Germany’s constitutionally enshrined so-called debt-brake is long past its sell-by date. Chris Bryant Bloomberg  27 februari 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-27/germany-s-210-billion-military-spending-bazooka-has-an-ugly-cost , Merz is laying the groundwork for a grand bargain with Macron https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/merz-is-laying-groundwork...

Make Them a Mar-a-Lago Accord They Can’t Refuse

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All the questions arising from the hectic first month of the second Trump administration find their expression in the dollar. The idea is that other nations would agree to direct investment in the US to head off a trade war, and also coordinate to make their currencies stronger, and thus make the dollar more competitive. For the arguments as to why you should take this seriously, first read “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System” written by Stephen Miran, the hedge fund manager and former Treasury economist who is set to become the chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors.  638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf There’s a precedent in the 1985 Plaza Accord, in which officials from the then-much-smaller capitalist world agreed to intervene to weaken the dollar.   The nub is to get others to agree to the changes.  As Trump has shown in the last few weeks, there are plenty of other sticks in his arsenal beyond tariffs to ...

Europeans want more safety than they can afford. And Americans may well get more disruption than they anticipate

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  As I watch Europe’s deepening existential crisis over its grim growth prospects, I often think back to a speech I heard 16 years ago in Paris. I was a lowly consultant for the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, but for some reason they had let me in to a fancy lunchtime reception,  where I listened to a senior staff member describe how the financial crisis proved the validity of the European economic model.  Slow, steady and highly regulated growth, she explained, was superior to the American boom-and-bust version of capitalism. Last year Mario Draghi, the former president of the European Central Bank, released his now infamous “Draghi report,” https://commission.europa.eu/topics/eu-competitiveness/draghi-report_en#paragraph_47059 which blames excessive and fragmented European regulations for strangling growth.  The purpose of government is to balance risk and reward for its citizens.  The problem is that Europeans want more safety than they...

It has been a long time

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 since investors had to deal with a full-blown disruption on par with what was seen during the 2008 financial crisis, or the bear market that walloped stocks in 1973 and 1974. Stagflation In Singer’s opinion, that is breeding a dangerous sense of complacency, inspired by the conviction that the government, or the Federal Reserve, will always come running to the rescue. “The state of stock markets today are just about as risky as I have ever seen.  Leverage is building and building, risk-taking is building and those statements apply also to governments.  It’s absolutely astonishing this NIRP — negative interest-rate policy — in Europe, and Japan, and Switzerland.  And ZIRP [zero-interest rate policy] for, what, 10 years, in the U.S.?  It’s crazy.” Paul Singer, 80, founder and co-CEO of hedge-fund giant Elliott Investment Management fund.  By Joseph Adinolfi MarketWatch 26 February 2025 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliotts-paul-singer-gives-rare-intervi...

Donald Trump said he had decided to slap 25 per cent tariffs on imports from the EU...

 ... as he lashed out at the bloc, saying it “was formed to screw the United States”. Financial Times 26 February 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/2f0288f6-3f6a-4334-b666-3f0122981842 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 26 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-26-februari-2025.html

Vad betyder Nvidias bokslut?

Börserna världen över väntar med spänning på Nvidias bokslut. Det kan bli bättre än väntat. Eller till och med sämre. Men vad säger det om övriga IT-aktier? Och vad säger det om tillståndet i världsekonomin? Platt intet.  

fjäsk kommer inte stoppa Trump

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  DN 26 februari 2025 https://www.dn.se/ledare/vi-befinner-oss-mitt-i-skilsmassan-fjask-kommer-inte-stoppa-trump/

Kampen om Åland

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  Kampen om Åland | SVT Play RE: Dock ingen släkt, vad jag vet.

2050 Africa will be home to approximately 2.5bn people, or around a quarter of humanity

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  By 2030 half of all new entrants into the global workforce will be from sub-Saharan Africa.  By 2050 the region’s working-age population will still be rising when it will be falling everywhere else.  At that point Africa will be home to approximately 2.5bn people, or around a quarter of humanity.   The Economist 6 January 6th 2025 https://www.economist.com/special-report/2025/01/06/to-catch-up-economically-africa-must-think-big By mid-century (2050) Nigeria is projected to be as populous as the US https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/07/by-mid-century-2050-nigeria-is.html

Rolfs länktips 26 Februari 2025

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  Merz is laying the groundwork for a grand bargain with Macron https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/merz-is-laying-groundwork-for-grand.html Donald Trump said he had decided to slap 25 per cent tariffs on imports from the EU... https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/donald-trump-said-he-had-decided-to.html 19.50   https://www.di.se/live/blandat-pa-wall-street-nvidia-lyfte-infor-rapport/ Can Europe confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on its own ? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/can-europe-confront-vladimir-putins.html It has been a long time  since  nvestors had to deal with a full-blown disruption https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/it-has-been-long-time.html Stockholmsbörsen avslutar starkt på onsdagen https://www.di.se/live/lastbilsduo-lyfte-till-nya-rekord-pa-stark-bors/ Betydelsefullt om Europas länder kan komma överens om att ta pengarna  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/betydelsefullt-om-europas-lander-kan.html  “The glo...

Betydelsefullt om Europas länder kan komma överens om att ta pengarna

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Om Europas länder bestämmer sig för att beslagta dessa frysta tillgångar så skulle de få en starkare position, menar Jan Hallenberg, professor emeritus i statsvetenskap vid Försvarshögskolan. Han anser att det hade varit oerhört betydelsefullt om Europas länder kan komma överens om att ta pengarna och ge dem till Ukraina. SvD 26 februari 2025 https://www.svd.se/a/Pp2rLb/europa-har-200-frysta-miljarder-som-trumfkort-mot-ryssland Stort steg att gå från att beslagta, till att konfiskera €250bn https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/stort-steg-att-ga-fran-att-beslagta.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 26 Februari 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/02/rolfs-lanktips-26-februari-2025.html

Merz is laying the groundwork for a grand bargain with Macron

What did Merz and Macron talk about? The trip was expected to include discussions on the recent shift in US policy on the war in Ukraine, as well as European security issues. Merz posted a photo of himself and Macron on social media late on Wednesday, thanking the French president for his "friendship" and "trust in German-French relations." "Together our countries can achieve great things for Europe," Merz wrote on Instagram. https://www.dw.com/en/merz-makes-surprise-trip-to-paris-for-talks-with-macron/a-71763932 After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, French President Francois Mitterrand reassured a cautious US that Paris’s ambitions for a more self-reliant European defense would take eons to succeed:  The UK wasn’t keen, the Irish were neutral and the Germans after reunification were geographically “so big they no longer know what they’re supposed to be doing.” Whether through jointly issued bonds or a less hawkish attitude to budget deficits, Merz’s ...