How Cold War II Could Turn Into World War III
The Persian empire is now the Islamic Republic of Iran; one might say the Holy Roman Empire has been reincarnated in the form of the European Union, at once extensive, German-centered and weak.
It is not civilizations that clash, but empires.
Biden’s plan for Russia might be described cynically as fighting to the last Ukrainian, but to what end?
Ostensibly the US is determined to “support Ukraine in its fight for its freedom,” but the real goal is “to degrade Russia’s ability to wage future wars of aggression.” That is why the administration has made almost no effort to broker a cease-fire, much less peace. The White House seems to want this war to keep going, though I suspect that will change after the mid-term elections.
Yet there is a much worse scenario, in which we get something closer to the 1940s, with regional conflicts coalescing into something like World War III — albeit with smaller armies, many unmanned weapons systems, and far more powerful and accurate bombs.
What makes me worry more about this scenario is the Biden-Harris administration’s new National Security Strategy, belatedly published last week
In short, the Biden administration aims to halt technological progress in China
The most extraordinary thing about these measures is how little comment they have elicited in the media. Trump did nothing so radical. As Luce put it: “A superpower declared war on a great power and nobody noticed.”
Cutting China off from high-end chips today seems a lot like cutting Japan off from oil in 1941. And it is an especially hazardous move when more than 90% of the production of those chips takes place in Taiwan, an island that China claims as its own.
Niall Ferguson Bloomberg 23 October 2022
Just How Close Are We to World War III, Exactly?
In 1983, only Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov — a guy who should really have statues around the world — kept us from accidentally dinosauring ourselves by refusing to believe a dodgy early warning system.
Where would we be if Petrov had called in sick that day?
Mark Gongloff Bloomberg 24 oktober 2022
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