Recession predictors have always had a terrible record

But in the past, stopped-clock doom-mongers only had to wait a few years for their moment of glory. 

Now redemption can take decades. 

At 122 months, the current US expansion is the longest on record, just ahead of the period from 1991 to 2001.

A hard to predict financial crisis is the most probable source of the next downturn

FT 3 September 2019