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2016-09-30

What should you do if Trump is right about a bond bubble?

In the first presidential debate, Donald Trump said, 

"Now, look, we have the worst revival of an economy since the Great Depression. 


And believe me: We're in a bubble right now. 


And the only thing that looks good is the stock market, but if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that's going to come crashing down.

Nigam Arora, MarketWatch Sept 29, 2016


At least one Wall Street economist agrees with Trump.

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In an op-ed written in The Wall Street Journal late Wednesday Morgan Stanley chief economist, Ruchir Sharma, says, Trump’s bubblicious depiction of the state of equities isn’t off base, given the degree to which the Federal Reserve is propping up stocks by maintaining ultralow interest rates in place. 
Sharma says about 60% of the gains from the stock market since dovish monetary policy was enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis can be attributed to central-bank support. Sharma puts it like this:



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