The trigger for the next global recession is at last coming into view after a series of loud distractions and false alarms.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve's gauge of "sticky-price" inflation in the US soared to a post-Lehman peak of 3pc in February.
This index is a 'pure' measure of core inflation - the underlying story once the noise is stripped out.
Mr F spelled out why the 1970s 'Phillips Curve' trade-off between unemployment and inflation is alive and well, and an implicit warning that prices could soon off take since the labour market is clearly approaching the electric fence of Milton Friedman's NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment).
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 15 March 2016
NAIRU at IntCom