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New debt forecasts dash Greece hopes The magnitude of Greece’s fiscal challenge was painted in sharp relief yesterday as Athens unveiled new budget projections exceeding the worst-case scenarios envisioned by international lenders when they agreed an €174bn rescue eight months ago. Financial Times, October 31st, 2012 The German bloc will have to take its bitter medicine in Greece Ambrose,  October 31st, 2012 Every detail of the Greek economy is worse than officially forecast just weeks ago. The budget unveiled this morning estimates that public debt will reach 189pc of GDP next year (not 179pc). The budget deficit will be 5.2pc (not 4.2pc). The economy will shrink 4.5pc next year (not 3.8pc). Unemployment is already 25.1pc and 55.6pc for youth. Just for the record: The EU-IMF Troika originally said that the economy would contract by just 2.6pc in 2010, before growing by 1.1pc in 2011, and 2.1pc in 2012. In fact Greek GDP contracted by 4.5pc in 2010, 6.9pc i...

EU budget: who pays what and how it is spent - Telegraph

Självklar rätt till asyl - DN.SE Ingen borde vara förvånad över att människor flyr från Syrien, skriver DN. Men att dom flyr till Sverige, som inte alls gränsar till Syrien, är det som bör förklaras.

Frankenstorm Poses ‘Worst Case Scenario’ - US Business News - CNBC See also Cataclysm

Jag har länge trott att eurons skulle bryta samman i Spanien . Alla talar om Spanien och Grekland och Italien. Ingen verkar bry sig om det lilla Portugal. Landet hade en textilindustri som har flyttat till Asien. Vad har dom nu och i framtiden? “There are signs aplenty of adjustment fatigue,”IMF said. “With unemployment high and real disposable incomes falling for several quarters in a row already, the announcement of further austerity measures to underpin the 2013 budget is testing the broad-based political and social consensus that has buttressed the program to date.”  Bloomberg, Oct 25, 2012 Observera att jag skriver "utlöser" eurons sammanbrott, inte förorsakar således. Euron kommer att kollapsa därför att det var en felaktig tanke.

Johan Schück är intressant, i en viss mening. Jag skrev om honom tidigare på denna blog 2012-02-04 Johan Schück är en kompetent ekonom och en kompetent journalist. Han är också för en svensk anslutning till EMU, som sig bör för en folkpartist, och har varit det länge och dragit sig strå till Ja-sägarnas stack. Johan Schück är ovanligt lämplig som studieobjekt för den framtida forskningen inom flera vetenskapsområden, ekonomi, statskunskap, psykologi och sociologi för att nämna några. Forskarna kommer att ha till uppgift att förklara hur det kom sig att så många i det ledande skiktet i Europas länder kom att vara för det redan nu misslyckade fullskaleexperiment, eller rättare sagt vågspel, som EMU och euron innebar. Kronkrigarna från valutafronten firar. Poltavaföreningen höll möte, skrev Carl A Hamilton i en legendarisk artikel i Aftonbladet 22/11 2002 . Nu tio år senare var det dags igen för Poltavaföreningen att fira sin seger hösten 1992. Poltavaföreningens hovreport...

Ja-sägarna vägrar dra den uppenbara slutsatsen av vad de själva säger.  EMU var ingen bra idé. – De spanska fackföreningarna känner en oerhörd frustration över att det inte finns någon som kan visa vägen hur de ska komma ur den här jättedjupa krisen, säger LO:s nye ordförande Karl-Petter Thorwaldsson, som är i Bryssel med anledning av Europafackets styrelsemöte som äger rum i samband med EU-toppmötet. – Vi måste hitta egna förslag på hur man ska förbättra konkurrenskraften och få nya jobb i Europa och driva dem.   Det känns ju inte som att vi är nära det i dag, säger Karl-Petter Thorwaldsson.   Europaportalen 18 oktober 2012 Anders Borg tror att Grekland kan komma att tvingas lämna eurozonen – Skulle man lämna eurosamarbetet är det troligt att man får tillbaka sin konkurrenskraft och då kanske Grekland kan komma på fötter vart efter.   – Det är en smärtsam och komplicerad väg men det är svårt att se en alternativ väg som skulle kunna fungera.   Ekot 1...

Lenders have welcomed the financial regulator’s new “common sense” rules on mortgages that will require the industry to check borrowers can afford to repay their debt. New mortgage rules will affect as many as one million borrowers - Telegraph Se även http://www.internetional.se/banks.htm

The banking union and its various cousins constitute the biggest act of political integration in Europe since the creation of the European Economic Community 55 years ago. I believe that they will be even bigger than the euro itself because they are a significant encroachment on national sovereignty on several levels. While the combination of banking, fiscal and economic union, if done properly, would create a minimally sufficient institutional set-up for a sustainable monetary union, there is a big snag: the monetary union might blow up well before the new mechanisms kick in. The banking union, as currently constructed, will not help us in the current crisis. Wolfgang Münchau Banking union will not end Europe’s crisis - FT.com

Summers Says Euro Crisis Approach Evokes U.S. in Vietnam War Marines guard the evacuation of civilians at Tan Son Nhut airbase in Vietnam while  under Viet Cong fire, during the fall of Saigon, on April 15, 1975.  Källa:  Bloomberg Oct 20, 2012   Det var en bra dag för Klas Eklund och andra som gladde sig åt att socialismen var införd i ännu ett land. Och segern var nära även i Sverige trodde många och fruktade andra. "Den 27 augusti 1975 slog nyheten ned som en bomb i den svenska debatten" "Revolution i Sverige" stod det på DN:s löpsedlar. Boken "Löntagarfonder" hade kommit ut. - Huvudförfattare var den då 61-årige LO-ekonomen /Rudolf Meidner/ Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said European leaders’ handling of the sovereign debt crisis evokes comparisons with U.S. strategy during the Vietnam War until helicopters pulled out of Saigon. “An observer such as mys...

Norge kan vara på väg att bygga upp en farlig fastighetsbubbla precis som Irland och Spanien tidigare har gjort rapporterar CNBC. Huspriserna i Norge har stigit med nästan 30 procent sedan 2006.   Den norska uppgången följer exakt det mönster som tidigare bubblor har gjort i andra länder som Japan, USA och Irland.  Det skriver Bank of New York i en färsk rapport.   Dagens Industri 19 oktober 2012 Norway's house price rise has been so dramatic that the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco wrote a paper on the subject in June that made parallels between the lead up to the U.S. housing crisis and the “irrationally exuberant bubble” of Norway’s present boom. Written by an advisor to Norway’s central bank (Norges Bank) Marius Jurgilas and San Francisco Fed’s senior economist Kevin Lansing, the paper stated that Norwegian property prices are currently 125 percent of the historic price-to-income ratio and around 170 percent of the historic price-to-rent ratio — a full 5...

Även om eurokrisen kräver kraftfulla åtgärder så har EU slagit in på en farlig väg med den snabba rörelsen mot överstatlighet i en tid när Europaprojektet genomlever sin hittills största förtroendekris.  Priset för att utan folkligt stöd förvandla EU till en regelrätt federation kan inom sinom tid bli högt.   Därför behövs nu ett mått av försiktighet och eftertanke. Expressen-ledare, 20 oktober 2012 Det är målsättningen om ett ständigt fastare förbund - "ever closer union" - som är själva grundbultsfelet med EU. Kunde vi rulla tillbaka Sovjetunionen skall vi väl kunna rulla tillbaka Europeiska Unionen. Rolf Englund Barometerns website 7/6 2005

As yet, I can see no clear proposal on the table in any EMU country  –  from any major movement, party, or political leader  –  that offers a way out of the current impasse. Somebody will fill the vacuum. Ambrose, October 19th, 2012  

Reformer som stärker ekonomin är vad som till slut avgör, i Grekland och Spanien likaväl som i Sverige. Det finns ingen enklare utväg, inte heller för länder som låter sin valuta flyta Johan Schück, DN 8 september 2012 Kronkrigarna från valutafronten firar  Poltavaföreningen höll möte. Carl A Hamilton Aftonbladet 22/11 2002

Info om Bankunion  http://www.nejtillemu.com/englundcloser0506.htm#zcbankunion

Fredrik Reinfeldt upprepade de svenska villkoret om att svenska banker och skattebetalare inte ska kunna få betala för förluster i andra länders banksystem. DN/TT 17 oktober 2012 Men det är väl det som hela idén med en bankunion, att man gemensamt skall dela risken för bankförluster?

http://www.internetional.se/emufldt.html

The "fiscal multiplier" is not the hallowed 0.5 assumed by every finance ministry in Europe. The awful evidence since the global bubble burst in 2008-2009 is that the multiplier is between 0.9 and 1.7, or even higher for EMU's crucifixion belt. The model constructed over the long boom years -- and largely drawn from isolated cases, each able to export its way out of trouble -- is dangerously wrong in a 1930s-style excess savings crisis with much of the world is slump. Steen Jakobsen from Saxo Bank says the IMF's mea culpa is the "biggest financial story of the year". Indeed it is. The authorities have repeated the blunders of the Great Depression, but with fewer excuses. The IMF has now called for a change of course. The Greco-Latins should be given more time to cut their deficits. The AAA creditor bloc should stop cutting altogether until the eurozone is off the reefs. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 14 Oct 2012 It...

Förslaget om en bankunion, med en överstatlig finanstillsyn som ett första steg kommer upp för diskussion på toppmötet nästa vecka Rolf Gustavsson, kolumn SvD 13 oktober 2012   Denna kris erbjuder Europa en enorm chans. Den har lagt fast dagordningen för åratal framåt: bankunion, finanspolitisk union och politisk union. finanskrisen har inte bara skakat Europa i dess grundvalar utan antagit livshotande proportioner Just nu står eurozonen på tröskeln till en bankunion, och en finanspolitisk union följer. Men om så bara med en bankunion kommer trycket i riktning mot en politisk union att tillta. Joschka Fischer, Kolumn DN, 2 Oktober 2012

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Fredspriset till EU - Den union som är den starkaste och viktigaste fredskraften i vår del av världen i vår tid, säger utrikesminister Carl Bildt.   Att ge EU priset nu är inte alls fel eller otajmat, enligt honom. SvD 12 oktober 2012 - For those, in particular, who see the European Commission as an undemocratic, bureaucratic, even corrupt institution, this will do more than raise eyebrows. - Remember, also, that it was awarded in Norway, a country that has steadfastly refused to join the Union, preferring to maintain its own sovereignty. Matthew Price,  BBC News, Brussels, 12 October 2012

In an apparent reference to the IMF’s u-turn this week on government austerity programmes, Lord Turner mocked the body’s “confident assertion” before the crisis that innovation in the financial system had “helped make the banking and overall financial system more resilient”.  “That assumption turned out to be profoundly wrong and dangerous, a major intellectual failure,” he said. Lord Turner also had harsh words for the FSA’s own conduct in the years leading up to the crisis and said the regulator had “made huge mistakes” “The rules on bank capital and liquidity were woefully deficient - an entire global banking system allowed to run with equity capital resources and liquidity buffers which we now believe were a small fraction of safe levels,” he said.    Harry Wilson, Banking Correspondent, Telegraph 11 Oct 2012 Basel -  Economic theory discredited

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From the formation of the euro in 1999 to now, German unit labour costs have hardly risen. During the euro's existence Germany´s average growth rate has been only 1.4pc, below the UK's – and below Spain's and Ireland's.   Whereas consumer spending has grown by about 30pc in America and the UK, in Germany it has grown by only 10pc.   The reason is that over the last 13 years, German workers' average real incomes have fallen by 4pc.   If, one way or another, the link between Germany and the southern euro member countries is broken, a return to the days of the deutschemark.   By reducing the domestic price of exports and imports, a stronger currency would transfer income from producers to consumers.   The result would be increased consumption.   If Germany left the euro, not only would the peripheral countries be better off, but so also would Germany.   Roger Bootle, Telegraph 7 October 2012 Det enda man kan tillägga är: Simsalabim! Och man fr...

Snipers, Commandos to Welcome Merkel in Greece CNBC, 8 October 2012 To fend off potential attacks, at least 7,000 plainclothes police and hundreds more undercover agents have been mobilized from across the country to lock down the capital and erect steel fences around parliament. Snipers were already visibly stationed on the roof tops of government buildings in Athens;  Commando Seals and Frogmen were also ordered on standby as helicopters began patrolling the Athenian skyline from Monday.   Inte heller som fredsprojekt verkar euron vara någon framgång.

Helmut Kohl, huvudpersonen som offrade D-marken på Europas altare   Tjugo år efter Maastricht, har alla dessa försummelser och brister kommit tillbaka på Europas dagordning Rolf Gustavsson, Kolumn, SvD 6 oktober 2012 Kohl skulle i Maastricht försöka förverkliga sin stora dröm, ett Europa förenat i en politisk union.   Under tidspress blev resultatet haltande och med ofullbordade kompromisser. Först i dessa yttersta dagar, tjugo år efter Maastricht, har alla dessa försummelser och brister kommit tillbaka på Europas dagordning.   Nu visar det sig om dagens generation politiska ledare vill och kan förvalta arvet – eller om de hellre lättjefullt förskingrar det.   I sin nyutkomna monumentala biografi om Helmut Kohl påminner historikern Hans-Peter Schwarz om hur läget var efter Tysklands återförening. Helmut Kohl, 82, är i dag hårt drabbad av ett dramatiskt slaganfall som berövat honom nästan all förmåga att tala och röra sig. Han lever isolerad i hemmet i Oggershe...

Fear of escalating demands by Germany, Finland and Holland is a key reason why Spanish premier Mariano Rajoy continues to drag his feet on a full sovereign bail-out.  Spain's refusal to act has frozen the eurozone rescue machinery and begun to rattle markets. The European Central Bank will not buy Spanish bonds until the country requests aid from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and signs a "Memorandum" giving up fiscal sovereignty. Finance minister Luis de Guindos told Spain's parliament Wednesday that there will be no bail-out until the terms are clear. "The government will take the best decision for Spain and its European allies when it knows all the details," he said. Finland has become the greatest worry. "Rajoy is terrified that the Finns will say `No' after he has requested a rescue," said a Spanish economist with close ties to the Rajoy team. Miapetra Kumpula-Natri, head of the Grand ...

The Teuto-Calvinists believe that the fiscal multiplier is around 0.5 The entire EU austerity plan is based on a false premise. This disastrous error is now clear beyond any reasonable doubt.   The Teuto-Calvinists believe – or profess to believe, since much of their dogma is national self-interest dressed up as theory – that the fiscal multiplier is around 0.5. That is to say, fiscal retrenchment worth 1pc of GDP will cut output by half as much, or around 0.5pc over two years. There is pain, but at least there is gain. This is based on the IMF's analysis of fiscal crises over the decades. Well, it has not worked out like that. Ireland has contracted at nearly seven times the speed, Spain four times, and Greece three times. Here is a table put together by Jean-Michel Six from S&P using IMF data. The multiplier is nearer 2.0 for part of the Club Med bloc. So what went wrong? It is blindingly obvious. The IMF data – and indeed the more extr...

If the troika does not approve the plan and agree that Greece is making sufficient progress reforming its finances, it means no more eurozone bailout funds. And without bailout funds the country faces likely bankruptcy, ejection from the euro and social chaos. The IMF is reportedly worried about becoming stuck as a long-term funder of the country, when its primary remit is to provide short-term, emergency funding.  So in Washington on Monday, IMF head Christine Lagarde suggested that eurozone countries may have to take a haircut on loans they have made to Greece, agreeing to write off part of what they are owed. In addition, the ECB might also have to take losses on the estimated 40bn-euro worth of Greek bonds it owns. Dr Vassilis Monastiriotis, senior lecturer at the European Institute of the London School of Economics, told the BBC: "If Greece convinces the authorities it is on track with its debt reduction measures, the decision to allow the two-year extens...

The recent standoff in Athens between Poul Thomsen, chief envoy of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Greek Finance Minister Yannis Stournaras was, by all accounts, rather heated.  Stournaras even threatened to resign rather than implement the cuts Thomsen was calling for, reported the New York Times. "It doesn't matter to me," the IMF envoy allegedly replied, and then left. On Friday, Sept. 21, it was time for the "Men in Black," as the Greeks call them, to depart once again -- without having accomplished anything.  The troika, consisting of representatives of the IMF, the European Commission and the European Central Bank (ECB), had had enough. Der Spiegel, 1 October 2012  

He said the political and economic fall-out from Greek ejection from the euro would be devastating and must be avoided. The plea came amid reports that Berlin is so worried that a Greek crisis would spin out of control that it is ready to back the next €31bn payment to Athens under its EU-IMF Troika rescue, despite failure to comply with the terms.  Ambrose, 30 September  2012 Tyskland Grekland Spricker