Hussman January 2025

On December 6, the S&P 500 set the most extreme level of valuations on record, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks  

Reliable valuation measures are enormously informative about both long-term investment returns and the potential depth of market losses over the completion of any given market cycle. 

At the same time, valuations are of strikingly little use in projecting market outcomes over shorter segments of the market cycle. Investor psychology has a much stronger impact

John P. Hussman January 2025

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250107/

If enough people believe stocks are a sure thing, their price-insensitive buying can push prices higher for a considerable time, reinforcing those initial beliefs

S&P 500 trades at about 22 times blended forward 12-month earnings, a multiple that the index has only exceeded in the periods 1998-2000 and 2020-2021 in data since 1990. 

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/most-people-assume-that-s-500-index.html

Daniel Kahneman, winner of the 2002 Nobel Prize in economics got his 15 days of fame.

https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/is-us-stock-market-in-bubble-territory.html