The next recession will be marked by a severe stagflationary debt crisis

Central banks will eventually wimp out and accept higher inflation – followed by stagflation – once a hard landing becomes imminent, because they will be worried about the damage of a recession and a debt trap, owing to an excessive build-up of private and public liabilities after years of low interest rates.

In typical plain-vanilla recessions, US and global equities tend to fall by about 35%.  But, because the next recession will be both stagflationary and accompanied by a financial crisis, the crash in equity markets could be closer to 50%.

Nouriel Roubini Project Syndicate 29 June 2022

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stagflationary-debt-crisis-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-06


 

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