Englund

Morfar var en av världens då mest framträdande nationalekonomer, Gustav Cassel.  Fadern hette Nils Wohlin och var under en kort tid finansminister, medan modern Margit Wohlin var den första kvinnan som blev doktor i nationalekonomi.  Bland syskonen fanns halvsystern Ulla Lindström som länge var socialdemokratiskt statsråd – och i släkten finns många fler kända namn. Johan Schück DN 27september 2018

So we think the coming yield shock will be thundering, and that the stock market bubble and purportedly booming economy that the Donald has been lured into embracing will blow up in his face.  At length, it will provide the catalyst that finally puts him aboard the Dick Nixon Memorial Helicopter for his final ride to Gonesville. David Stockman 26 september 2018

Lars Wohlin : stocksundspojken som blev chef för Riksbanken och hjälpte Sverige säga nej till euron   Läs mer här

Thatcher’s Bruges speech FT 25 September 2018

Efter dagens talmansval får det anses säkert att SD röstar emot UlfK som regeringsbildare.  I slutändan hotar extraval. Då blir C och L stödpartier åt S "för att rädda landet undan kaos".  Kvar blir UlfK. Utmyglad.

A bear market could come without warning or apparent reason, or with the next recession Robert J. Schiller Project Syndicate 24 september 2018

First published in 2002, it became an instant international sensation and propelled its author, already a Nobel laureate economist, to rock-star status.  That has been especially true in the emerging and developing world, where he now addresses sold-out arenas. Last year, Stiglitz published a sequel in which he reassesses his previous arguments;   Globalization and Its Discontents Revisited The Evolution of Globalization, Sep 21, 2018 ERIK BERGLÖF, Project Syndicate

- När löntagarfonderna blev en stor fråga på 1970-talet, fick de borgerliga ett perfekt skäl att samverka. Marknadsekonomin var på allvar hotad. Det skriver DN:s chefredaktör Peter Wolodarski, född 15 april 1978 i Oscars församling i Stockholm, DN 23 september 2018. Han hade hittat ett klipp om FP:s landsmöte 1974 då fyra av de senaste årens ungdomsförbundsordföranden – Per Ahlmark, Per Gahrton, Lars Leijonborg och Johan Schück – hade undertecknat var sin motion, som samtliga var kritiska mot M.  Full text Däremot hade han inte hittat något om att i den gemensamma uppgörelsen om den ekonomiska politiken mellan Folkpartiet och socialdemokraterna våren 1974, den sk Haga-överenskommelsen, ingick att frågan om anställdas del i företagens förmögenhetstillväxt skulle bli föremål för en statlig utredning, Löntagarfondsutredningen. (Gösta Bohman misslyckades att få den utredningen nerlagd eftersom Per Ahlmark då hotade att spräcka Fälldin-regeringen.) Direktiven utarbetades a...

Too many suffered too much for too long, while those responsible avoided justice. Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater  As Dalio would have predicted, problems were harshest in economies that do not control the currency in which they borrow  As for the solution, he is gloriously laconic: “In the end, policymakers always print.”  John Authers FT 21 September 2018 Om man har en sedelpress går man inte i konkurs Englund blog 4 november 2011

It needs the U.S. and NATO help to avoid the fate of the Austro-Hungarians. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-09-20/the-eu-is-looking-like-europe-s-next-failed-empire Rome, Habsburg and the European Union https://www.internetional.se/paxromana.htm

Its  $28 million   of revenue and  $8 millions  of net losses in 2017 are now valued at  $22.2 billion , which amounts to a nice round multiple of  785X  sales! We do reckon, of course, that occasionally a start-up of true technological brilliance surrounded by patent-protected moats might initially be worth something like that multiple during its early years. But a dope purveyor which grows the stuff in greenhouses, sells thru pharmacies and on-line, has no patents, no barriers to entry and no material brands--- since the incipient mass market cannabis industry barely exists? David Stockman. September 19th, 2018

Grekland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien och Cypern fick alla enorma räddningslån från EU och IMF,  och en stor del av pengarna gick till att hålla kommersiella banker flytande – samtidigt som befolkningarna i de krisdrabbade länderna underkastades hårda åtstramningspaket, med sänkta löner och pensioner. Teresa Küchler SvD 15/9 2018 - Den stora risken var att Grekland skulle utlösa en kris i italienska, franska och tyska banker.  Nu finns i praktiken en EU-garanti för de utestående grekiska statsobligationerna. Anders Borg, TT, SvD papper 22 februari 2012

All are the result of bias, ignorance, laziness or bad faith. Barry Ritholtz Bloomberg 14 september 2018 

Steve Eisman blev världsberömd efter att en karaktär baserad på honom blev huvudrollen i filmen “Big Short”. – Nu vill alla att jag ska berätta vad som blir nästa krasch, säger han till DN på tioårsdagen av finanskraschen. DN 14/9 2018 ”Beredskapen inför nästa finanskris inte särskilt hög” Klas Eklund DN Debatt 14/9 2018 Läs mer här

Annual State of the EU address by President Juncker at the European Parliament 12 September 2018 Juncker beskrev en plan för att skapa en 10 000 man stark gränsbevakningsstyrka...  I den mån EU klarar att komma överens om flyktingar handlar det om att hålla dem borta.  Avtalet med Turkiets auktoritäre president Erdogan var en tvivelaktig modell. Numera litar EU även till Libyens krigsherrar. Det finns en grumlig tanke om att bygga förläggningar i Nordafrika, där en och annan eventuellt kan söka asyl i EU. DN-ledare 13/9 2018 Federalism

Adair Turner FT 9/11 2018

Given the US fiscal stimulus has been ill-timed, the Federal Reserve will have to continue to hike to a level of about 3.5 per cent by early 2020.  Nouriel Roubini and Brunello Rosa FT 9/11 2018

CNBC 10 September 2018

Banks are safer, but too much of what has gone wrong since 2008 could happen again The state had no choice but to stand behind failing banks, but it took the ill-judged decision to all but abandon insolvent households.  Perhaps 9m Americans lost their homes in the recession The Economist editorial 6 September 2018

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-stock-market-bear-signal-is-at-a-more-than-4-decade-high-says-goldman-2018-09-06

The presidential candidates of the day, the late John McCain and Barack Obama, were delivering speeches saying that Washington must save Main Street, not Wall Street. FT 6 September 2018

The U.S. trade deficit added up to almost $338 billion in the first seven months of 2018.  That compared to $316 billion in the same span in 2017. MarketWatch 5 September 2018 US Trade deficit at IntCom

New programs ranged from financial assistance for large banks and car manufacturers to tax rebates for low-income households and also included funding for public projects, such as highway construction. At its peak, in early 2009, total discretionary spending was about $1.2 trillion in annual terms, or 7 percent of GDP. St. Louis Fed 2018-08-24

A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, J.P. Morgan takes a look back  at the response to the financial crisis that reshaped financial markets and the global economy. CNBC 4 September 2018 Lehman

Argentina and Turkey look like outliers but the rot could spread fast. Satyajit Das Bloomberg 3 september 2018

If those who believe in the market economy and liberal democracy do not come up with superior policies, demagogues will sweep them away. A better version of the pre-2008 world will just not do. People do not want a better past; they want a better future. Martin Wolf FT 4 september 2018

— just as the president did last time an IMF programme failed in Argentina before its 2001 crisis. FT 31 August 2018

It will not be an instant sandpile collapse, but instead take years because we have $500 trillion of debt to work through. We cannot accurately predict when the avalanche will happen.  John Mauldin 1 September 2018

One day in the early summer of 2007, I received an email out of the blue from an erudite Japanese central banker called Hiroshi Nakaso. “I am somewhat concerned,” he began in typically understated manner, before warning that a financial crisis was about to explode because of problems in the American mortgage and credit market. I was astonished. That was not because I disagreed with Nakaso’s analysis: by June 2007, I had been writing about the credit sector for a couple of years as the FT’s capital markets editor in London, and was uneasy.  But I was surprised that it was Nakaso raising the alarm. So why was Nakaso pessimistic? “Déjà vu”, he replied.  A decade earlier, back in 1997, Nakaso had been working at the Japanese Central Bank when Tokyo plunged into its terrible banking crisis, sparked by $1tn of bad loans left by Japan’s 1980s real estate baburu keiki, or bubble. Gillian Tett FT 31 August 2018