Englund

   China makes a third of all manufactured goods  — more than the US, Japan, Germany and South Korea combined https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/china-makes-almost-third-of-all.html   Ray Dalio said the US is hooked on using debt to finance excessive spending, while creditor countries like China are addicted to selling goods to borrower countries like the US. “There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways,”  Ray Dalio apparently stands on the shoulders of nobody  Donald Trump inför viss tullpaus under 90 dagar.  Det fick USA-börsernas index   till rallyn man inte sett på decennier. https://www.di.se/live/megarusningar-pa-wall-street-efter-trumps-tullpaus/ Trump: 90 dagars tullpaus för vissa länder – börserna rusar https://www.di.se/live/trump-90-dagars-tullpaus-for-vissa-lander-borserna-rusar/ Sveriges utrikeshandelsminister, Benjamin ...

José Luis Escrivá, governor of the Bank of Spain and a member of the ECB’s governing council,  suggested US policies could bring into question the dollar’s status as a reserve currency and haven. He suggested the euro could emerge as a more attractive alternative. “We can offer a very large economic area and a solid currency, which benefit from the stability and predictability which result from sound economic policies and the rule of law.” Financial Times 9  April 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/31194494-88bd-4066-a91f-5b94822f555e Amerikanska börser faller och räntorna stiger. Kombinationen är både ovanlig och oroväckande.  I värsta fall handlar det om att förtroendet för världens viktigaste tillgång är på väg upp i rök.  Alternativet panikförsäljning för att täcka förlustpositioner lockar inte heller. Viktor Munkhammar DI  Uppdaterad: 9 april 2025, 13:39 Publicerad: 9 april 2025, 11:41 https://www.di.se/nyheter/varsta-scenariot-ar-pa-bordet/ A selloff in longe...

  We have a problem... Beijing’s trade juggernaut is built on deep competitive advantages built up over decades that will not be easily dislodged. Financial Times 9  April 2025 https://ig.ft.com/china-trade-surplus/ Why China thinks it might win a trade war with Trump Mr Trump wants a lot from his geopolitical rival, including stemming the flow of fentanyl precursors and help ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. America’s president has also revealed that he does not want to be responsible for shutting down TikTok, a Chinese-owned short-video app popular among young Americans.  Tesla, an electric-vehicle firm owned by Elon Musk, Mr Trump’s adviser, is vulnerable to retaliation, since it does about a fifth of its business in China.   Chinese officials may also believe that America will be unable to bear the inflation and economic discontent caused by Mr Trump’s tariffs. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/08/why-china-thinks-it-might-win-a-trade-war...

Mega hedge funds are so critical to modern finance they should be regulated more like banks. Paul J. Davies Bloomberg 9 april 2025  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2025-04-09/hedge-fund-risk-shadow-banks-are-too-big-to-stay-in-the-shadows Banks Need to Worry About Shadow Banks https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/11/banks-need-to-worry-about-shadow-banks.html 15 years on from the great financial crisis, there’s still plenty of risk in the market https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/09/15-years-on-from-great-financial-crisis.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 9 april 2025 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-9-april-2025-china-more.html

It is a racing certainty that he will soon do the same to the Federal Reserve, forcing the central bank to cut interest rates into the teeth of rising inflation,  with epic consequences for the world’s dollarised financial system and for €39 trillion of offshore dollar debt contracts and swaps. The current debate over whether or not Trump has the legal power to fire Powell entirely misunderstands the character of the Maga revolution.  America’s rule of law is for guidance only these days. Powell will not go without a fight. “I will never, ever, ever leave this job voluntarily until my term ends under any circumstances,” he said during Trump 1.0. US federal debt was 34pc of GDP in 1971. Today it is 122pc on the Fed measure, and galloping upwards.  The fiscal deficit is over 6pc as far as the eye can see. The US does not have the domestic savings to fund this debt appetite. The savings rate has collapsed to 0.6pc of national income. It was 12pc in the 1960s. Foreign investo...

´ Surging home equity is all the more important in a declining stock market. For generations, owning a house was considered a surefire path to prosperity. Wall Street Journal 7 April 2025 https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/american-home-equity-wealth-costs-982e79a4 Let’s look at how US home prices changed https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/lets-look-at-how-us-home-prices-changed.html Who, exactly, is buying all of this stuff? Updated USA: The Haves and Have-Nots https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/usa-haves-and-have-nots.html “Consumers are strong, our consumers that we chase are especially resilient and strong,” Mark Kempa, chief financial officer of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, said https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/economic-data-paint-picture-of-two.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 8 april 2025; sju börskrascher https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-8-april-2025-sju.html

The worry is that the Fed might face political pressure to suspend the so-called swap lines that provide dollar liquidity to foreign central banks in such moments. Currency swap lines are not foreign bailouts. Economic historian Charles Kindleberger taught us that global stability relies of the hegemon’s willingness and ability to lead.  His main lesson in The World in Depression, 1929-1939, draws from the devastating implications of the missing hegemon in 1930s — “no longer London, not yet New York”  Aditi Sahasrabuddhe Financial Times 8 april 2025  The writer is an assistant professor at Brown University and the author of the forthcoming book ‘Bankers’ Trust’ on central bank co-operation in crises https://www.ft.com/content/4ed9edc2-cdfe-43c5-8d95-e1842adc9e62 Kindleberger’s work showed that tariffs were only part of the story and not even the most important.  What turned all this into a full-blown global depression was the collapse of a small bank in Vienna in 193...

Foreign private investors, instead of central banks, have been the main buyers of US assets. While this hot money flow supported a dollar super cycle in the past, it’s dangerous because the capital is more flighty. As of last year, foreign investors held about $18 trillion in US equities Shuli Ren Bloomberg 7 april 2025 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-04-07/why-buy-the-dollar-if-the-us-becomes-an-economic-island ‘Drop the Dad, Keep the Baby’ Is Chinese Women’s New Mantra  Shuli Ren Bloomberg  26 mars 2025   https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-26/-drop-the-dad-keep-the-baby-is-chinese-women-s-new-mantra

Donald Trump verkar ”genuint korkad”, är narcissistiskt lagd och har helt missat grundkursen i nationalekonomi, enligt ekonominestorn Lars Calmfors. Underskottet mot resten av världen bestäms i grunden av att USA investerar mer än det sparar.  Så länge det förhållandet består, kommer även handelsunderskottet att bestå. DI 8 april 2025 https://www.di.se/digital/ekonominestorn-trump-tar-usa-till-hedenhos-handel/ Calmfors; på uppdrag av Stiftelsen fritt näringsliv https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/01/calmfors-pa-uppdrag-av-stiftelsen-fritt.html

https://www.akademibokhandeln.se/bok/finanskrascher-fran-kapitalismens-fodelse-till-lehman-brothers/9789127166639 År 2018 gav professor Lars Magnusson ut boken ”Finanskrascher: Från kapitalismens födelse till Lehman Brothers”.  Sedan dess har vi även haft börsraset under covid – en kris som oväntat nog övergick i börsrally för många. Och så har vi den nu aktuella kraschen med tullkris. Enligt professor Magnusson är den ena kraschen inte den andra lik. Även om dramatiken vissa börsdagar är densamma, är orsakerna bakom krascherna olika. Den senaste riktigt allvarliga kraschen kom under ”Finanskrisen”.  https://www.svd.se/a/wEGg6G 2007 började man ana att flera komplexa finansiella upplägg i USA inte var hållbara. Det fanns bland annat lånepaket till allmänheten där räntorna inledningsvis var rabatterade, ”subprime”.   – Kom ihåg att finanskrisen sträckte sig över flera år. Den inkluderar eurokrisen. I Europa blev det till exempel problem med ”PIIGS-länderna” – Portugal...

  On Monday, when stocks were tumbling for a third straight day, prices of long-term U.S. Treasury debt fell, too. That drove their yields, which move in an inverse relationship to prices, higher. It was especially confounding because long-term Treasury prices in preceding days hadn’t gained as much as they normally would in the face of a steep-stock market selloff. So much for government debt being a haven at a time of upheaval. The big question is why Treasury yields have behaved this way. With Treasury yields well above 4%, risk-free debt could act as a brake on a potential stock-market rebound such as the one that started to unfold Tuesday. This is even more of a risk since equity analysts haven’t yet fully priced in growing recession risk. If a prolonged downturn materializes, Treasurys would typically be big winners, especially if stocks remain highly valued. Wall Street Journal 8 April 2025 11:26 am  https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-stock-market-is-in-chaos-wh...

Den svaga amerikanska dollarn; How worrying is the weakening dollar? Updated.  The big question is why Treasury yields have behaved this way. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/den-svaga-amerikanska-dollarn-how.html We got a problem...  US  trade deficit increased to  $918 billion; 9.997 miljarder kronor Persistent trade deficits are an inescapable aspect of  issuing the global reserve currency https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/if-dollar-no-longer-rules-world-global.html Det har spekulerats i att Donald Trump vill devalvera den amerikanska dollarn genom ett stort avtal. Den planen är dödfödd, menar Naoyuki Shinohara, Japans tidigare toppdiplomat i valutafrågor. För en sådan manöver behöver man vänner.  DI  8 april 2025 https://www.di.se/live/japansk-valutahojdare-trump-kan-inte-devalvera-dollarn/ Weakening the dollar is a good idea, Plaza https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/weakening-dollar-is-good-idea.html US central bank’s swap ...

The US cumulative trade deficits in goods from 1976 — the year chronic deficits began — to 2024 have transferred over $20tn of American wealth into foreign hands.  That’s more than 60 per cent of US GDP in 2024. Foreign interests have taken over vast swaths of US farmland, housing, tech companies, and even parts of our food supply. Peter Navarro President Trump’s senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing Financial Times 7 April 2025 https://www.ft.com/content/f313eea9-bd4f-4866-8123-a850938163be Trump’s game plan for devaluing the mighty dollar https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/03/trumps-game-plan-for-devaluing-mighty.html Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 8 april 2025; sju börskrascher https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-8-april-2025-sju.html  

  EU kan ta till ett aldrig tidigare använt verktyg som svar på USA:s tullar – en europeisk ”handelsbazooka”. – Den är främst tänkt att användas i avskräckande syfte för risken är så stor att man trappar upp handelskriget och att det får oöverskådliga konsekvenser, säger Europakorrespondent Ulrika Bergsten https://www.svt.se/nyheter/ekonomi/ulrika-bergsten-eu-kan-rikta-handelsbazooka-mot-usa EU Spares Bourbon as It Plans 25% Tariffs on Some US Goods The European Union has dropped a planned 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey as it’s proposing 25% tariffs on a selection of US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s decision last month to put levies on aluminum and steel imports Several member states had pushed for whiskey to be excluded in an effort to spare European wine and champagne producers from facing 200% tariffs threatened by Trump as retaliation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/eu-considering-25-tariffs-on-some-us-goods-in-metals-dispute ...

  83 procent av unga mellan 18 och 33 år sparade i fonder  enligt en undersökning på uppdrag av Fondbolagens förening. SvT 7 maj 2025 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/uppsala/unga-aktiesparare-har-ar-det-samsta-du-kan-gora-under-borsraset Den totala fondförmögenheten är nu 8,2 biljoner kronor. ”Att ha is i magen låter ju väldigt trist men  investerar man långsiktigt tycker jag att  man ska vara försiktig med att gå in och peta  när det händer sådana här saker”. DI 3 april 2025 Rolfs länktips 3 april 2025 Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 8 april 2025; sju börskrascher https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2025/04/rolfs-lanktips-8-april-2025-sju.html

Asia Börskrasch i Asien   ras på över 10% i Hong Kong https://cornucopia.se/2025/04/borskrasch-i-asien-oljepriset-och-kronan-rasar-bostadsmarknaden-kommer-paverkas-av-kraschen-extrema-elpriser-tillbaka-i-hela-landet/ Donald Trumps rådgivare Kevin Hassett uppger att USA:s president  Donald Trump överväger 90 dagars tullpaus för alla länder  exklusive Kina.   https://www.di.se/live/trump-overvager-90-dagars-tullpaus/ Stockholmsbörsen lyfter till dagshögsta – Wall Street vänder till plus https://www.di.se/live/stockholmsborsen-lyfter-till-dagshogsta-wall-street-vander-till-plus/ Tidigare medieuppgifter om att Donald Trump  överväger 90 dagars tullpaus är falska, hävdar Vita huset  och samtliga ledande index vänder ned i rött.  DI 7 april 2025 https://www.di.se/live/vita-huset-falska-uppgifter-om-tullutspel/ USA-börserna stänger blandat efter svängig handel  Nvidia lyfte 3,5 procent medan Apple tappade 3,7 procent.  EU-kommissionen...