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A pandemic is no longer a scientific tail-risk. It is fast becoming the central risk.

Leading virologists warn that it may already be too late to contain the virus in China. We should have a clear idea whether or not the spread is unstoppable within three weeks. 

What is striking about the global epidemiology is the implausible absence of cases in Indonesia, Pakistan, Cambodia, or the whole of Africa, despite constant to and fro to China. 

It is clear that there is no systematic testing or tracking in many countries. The virus may be circulating below radar in large areas. 

This will make it nigh impossible for western states to control the spread unless global travel is shut down, but to do that would derail the globalised international economy overnight.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph 12 February 2020

"The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year,"

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