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Den dramatiska nedgången för SPD började med Gerhard Schröder och hans så kallade  Harzreformer  2003, ett i grunden nyliberalt reformpaket för låglönemarknader och kraftig begränsning av arbetslöshetsförsäkringen SPD är nu nere på omkring 15 procent i opinionsundersökningar och medlemmarna är ursinniga och villrådiga.  Den tyska socialdemokratins öde  är en del av ett europeiskt drama. Det tycks som om socialdemokratins tid runnit ut.  Carl Tham Dagens Arena 29 november 2018

Det sade Fredrik Reinfeldt i sitt segertal i natt då han mötte 650 jublande partikamrater 2010. Aftonbladet Efter valet 2010 hade Alliansen inte längre egen majoritet Migrationsuppgörelsen mellan Alliansen och Miljöpartiet 2011  Wikipedia https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Migrationsuppg%C3%B6relsen_mellan_Alliansen_och_Milj%C3%B6partiet_2011

Rising risk premia undermine the expansionary effect of fiscal deficits even during recessions. The Eurozone economy’s Coming Downturn Project  Syndicate 27 November 2018 Lucrezia Reichlin, a former director of research at the European Central Bank, is Professor of Economics at the London Business School.

Låt inte Putin hyvla den ukrainska salamin Linda Nordlund Expressen Ryssland kokar grodor och skär salami Tove Lifvendahl SvD De borgerliga grodorna är inte lustiga att se Rolf Englund 87- 08- 27 De battartikel för NPT

Patricia Hedelius: SvD 25 november 2018

Banks bailed out to the tune of £500bn;  the bankers responsible punished only in the court of public opinion;  the imbalance between risk and sky-high rewards barely addressed by boards and shareholders. FT editor Lionel Barber 23 November 2018

Non-performing exposures constitute almost half of Greek banks’ assets. Most of their regulatory capital consists of deferred tax claims against the battered Greek sovereign. Bloomberg 23 november 2018

Read more here

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/19/tech-stocks-like-facebook-and-apple-got-crushed-once-again.html

“We’re seeing more and more banks take risks that, back in 2008 and 2009, they said they’d never do again,” said Korbinian Ibel, a director general at the ECB’s banking supervision arm. “They argue that everyone else is doing it, so how can they avoid it? That sounds a lot like 2007.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-19/european-banks-are-taking-lending-risks-like-it-s-2007-ecb-says?srnd=premium-europe

The most plausible solution to the latest impasse appears to be “Italexit”— Italy’s secession from the euro zone.  Europe has always been a disunited continent, with broad ethnic, cultural, linguistic, political, and economic divides.  Given these disparities, the imposition of a single currency on a population that now totals 340 million people arguably has been doomed from the start. Avi Tiomkin Barron's Nov. 16, 2018 Italy’s Threat to the Euro Desmond Lachman, America Enterprise Institute, November 18, 2018 Italy, the Eurozone’s third largest economy, is coming under increased market pressure fueled by doubts about the country’s economic outlook and the sustainability of its public finances.  This has to once again raise questions as to whether the Euro can survive in its present form.

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But there are others, and some have the capacity to be even deadlier. BBC 14 November 2018

 and  the amount of money homeowners pulled out of their homes through equity loans dropped by an amazing 14 per cent of disposable household income.  The resulting damage to consumption explained the onset of recession in 2008.  Gavyn Davies FT 11 November 11, 2018

Rest assured that not all of today’s trading strategies are predicated on that reality. To return to Mr Minsky, the big question around the instability hypothesis now turns on the behaviour of the central banks. John Plender FT 13 November 2018

but an implied guarantee that said “Global banks cannot be allowed to fail”.  Frances Coppola - September 15, 2018

Here are 10 things I would like all my children to understand about what happened to their great-grandfather’s generation. 1. The war was not “for Civilisation,” as claimed on John Ferguson’s Victory Medal. It was a war for predominance between the six great European empires — the British, the French, and the Russian against the German, the Austrian, and the Ottoman — that broke out because all their leaders miscalculated ... Niall  Ferguson Boston Globe  NOVEMBER 12, 2018

On Nov. 13, Treasury will sell a combined $164 billion of bills maturing in 4 weeks, 8 weeks, 3 months and 6 months https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/bond-traders-about-to-see-if-they-re-underrating-inflation-risks?srnd=fixed-income

As a firm believer in the Austrian Business Cycle Theory – first drafted by Ludwig Von Mises in early 1900’s – I believe that artificially moving interest rates away from the markets natural rate is opening Pandora’s box. Sure – lowering rates across the yield curve is good for stimulating the economy.  And like John Maynard Keynes explained, it’s a good tool for ‘papering over’ a slowdown – a quick fix. But like Mises said – it’s not the boom that matters (from lowering rates). It’s the bust that will follow (from raising rates). Suddenly and artificially raising short-term rates – which the Fed does when they hike – disrupts the current equilibrium. Palisade Research  via Zerohedge 11/09/2018   

https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/the-polish-pilots-who-flew-in-the-battle-of-britain Battle of Britain 303   After the war, the Polish pilots felt their country had been betrayed to Soviet communism. And they were not included in victory celebrations in Britain, nor in war films celebrating RAF heroism.  Other Polish contributions to the war effort - such as vital work in the cracking of the German Enigma code - went similarly unacknowledged. https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-45516556

Xi has said homes are for living in, not for speculation. Bloomberg News 8 november 2018

The CBO calculates that servicing costs will triple in size to nearly $1tn by 2028 Gillian Tett FT 8 November 2018

—Tom Toro (b. 1982), American cartoonist for The New Yorker Cit by John Mauldin 2 November 2018

Grekland,  Italien, Spanien, Irland,  Portugal. Johan Carlström SvD 4 November 2018 När och hur spricker EMU?

zombie companies Excessive leverage may light the fuse, but the real problems are deeper. US government deficit will be (drumroll, please) approximately $1.4 trillion per year for the next five years,  which will mean $29 trillion total debt by 2024.  And that’s without a recession.  John Mauldin 2 November 2018

Just over three years ago, when I was negotiating on behalf of Greece with the German government to end the combination of unsustainable loans and hyper-austerity that are still crushing my country, I warned my interlocutors at a Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers: “If you insist on policies that condemn whole populations to a combination of permanent stagnation and humiliation, you will soon have to deal not with Europeanist leftists like us but, instead, with anti-Europeanist xenophobes who see it as their vocation to disintegrate the European Union.” YANIS VAROUFAKIS Project Syndicate  May 29, 2018  

The moral of the story is that if only we economists had spoken up sooner, been more convincing on the issues where we were right, and recognized where we were wrong,  the situation today would be considerably better. J. Bradford DeLong Project Syndicate 1 November 2018

The findings suggest that summers like 2018, when the jet stream drove extreme weather on an unprecedented scale across the Northern Hemisphere, will be 50 percent more frequent by the end of the century if emissions of carbon dioxide and other climate pollutants from industry, agriculture and the burning of fossil fuels continue at a high rate. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/31102018/jet-stream-climate-change-study-extreme-weather-arctic-amplification-temperature

Banking’s diminished role in lending has enormous, still under-appreciated implications Robin Wiggglesworth FT 2 November 2018 James Bigglesworth, DSO, DFC, MC

Lasting Effects: The Global Economic Recovery 10 Years After the Crisis,, 3 October 2018

Mish 1 November 2018

AMBROSE EVANS-PRITCHARD 31 October 2018

The shortfall rose to $54 billion for the month, and reflective of a 10.1 percent increase year to date The goods deficit stood at $76.3 billion, the highest on record on a seasonally adjusted basis. Exports increased to $ 212 .6 billion, a $3.1 billion gain from August,  while imports rose $3.8 billion to $ 266 .6 billion. CNBC 2 November 2018

Simon Kuper FT 1 November 2018