“Stein’s law” If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” China, Wolf


If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.” 

 This is “Stein’s law”, after its inventor Herbert Stein, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under Richard Nixon. 

 Rüdiger Dornbusch, a US-based German economist, added: 

 “The crisis takes a much longer time coming than you think, and then it happens much faster than you would have thought.”

 Martin Wolf, FT 11 april 2017


Stein's Law: If something cannot go on for ever it will stop. 

 Herbert Stein The Public Interest nr 97 Fall 1989

Kommentarer

Skicka en kommentar

Populära inlägg i den här bloggen

Sju chefsekonomer med delade meningar (2,5 eller 2,25)

Bild
  Samstämmigheten om oförändrad ränta på torsdag var total.  Däremot är meningarna om vägen framåt delade.  Var Riksbankens styrränta ligger om ett år landar ekonomerna hos Handelsbanken, Länsförsäkringar och Swedbank på 2,5 procent  medan Robert Boije, SBAB, och Jens Magnusson, SEB, tror på 2,25 procent. DI 25 juni 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/experter-ekonomin-vander-men-sankt-ranta-forst-senare-i-ar/ They don’t want to be what investor Mark Kritzman calls “wrong and alone.”  A manager with one-third of assets in Chinese stocks won’t get fired if that market falls, since almost every other firm has similar exposure. Being wrong together gives every manager plausible deniability. But a firm that holds little or nothing in Chinese stocks will be blamed by clients if China booms, since its funds will lag behind their competitors.  Being wrong and alone is what gets asset managers fired. WSJ 24 September 2021 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/09/nobody-knows-anything.html
Läs mer

In the perennial tussle between fear and greed, the former has seized the upper hand och Mattias Isakson, Swedbank

Bild
  Mattias Isakson, chefsstrateg på Swedbank, kallar fallet en naturlig reaktion på att aktierna utvecklats extremt bra under lång tid på grund av en mycket stark vinstutveckling. – När det kommer lite besvikelse i siffrorna passar investerare på att ta hem en del av vinsten, säger han. Den kraftiga börsuppgången har fått en del att oroa sig för en AI–bubbla som slutar i en stor börskrasch. Trots uppgången tror Mattias Isakson tror att Magnificent seven-aktierna har mer att ge . https://www.svd.se/a/Ooo4Vw/oro-for-ai-bubbla-i-magnificent-seven-efter-borsens-fall In the perennial tussle between fear and greed, the former has seized the upper hand  Assumptions on Fed rate cuts, AI, earnings have been upended The assumptions that have driven this year’s global financial markets are being rapidly rethought. Stockholders have suddenly grown skeptical that technology companies’ massive investments in artificial intelligence will pay off any time soon.  Investors were taken aback this week how
Läs mer

Röd Öppning - Red Opening

Bild
About me Why am I writing this? Being a long-time market bear and being wrong most of the time, with a few exceptions, like 2008, I fear that we do not have the worst behind us. - If you are interested in why people act the way they do, chronology is the only way to go. Time and time again I have discovered that events become comprehensible only when you follow the chronology of a course where those involved, unlike the historian, do not know how it will go. - Om man är intresserad av varför människor agerar som de gör är kronologin den enda vägen. Gång på gång har jag upptäckt att händelser blir begripliga först när man följer kronologin i ett förlopp där de inblandade, till skillnad från historikern, inte vet hur det ska gå.                                                                     Henrik Berggren So I am wring the story of  the next big event in real time, I hope. Prolog Börsen 2022 i Stockholm och New York  Englund: Börsen 2022 i Stockholm och New York (englundmacro.blog
Läs mer