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Wall Street och Stockholm 17 oktober 2024

oktober 17, 2024

Kamala Harris och Hillary Clinton om Trump som fascist; New York Times https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/kamala-harris-och-hillary-clinton-om.html Sex av åtta partier överens om att slopa överskottsmålet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/sex-av-atta-partier-overens-om-att.html A Trump Presidency Radically Remake World Trade https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/a-trump-presidency-radically-remake.html US Stealth Bombers Strike Houthi Weapons Sites in Yemen https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/us-stealth-bombers-strike-houthi.html The lock-in effect, high mortgage rates and climate risk are affecting home buyers https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-lock-in-effect-high-mortgage-rates.html Volkswagen är största ägare i Northvolt, vinstvarningar och elbilsomställningen har kommit av sig https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/volkswagen-ar-storsta-agare-i-northvolt.html Luften gick ur Wall Street https://www.di.se/live/luften-gick-ur-wall-street-egenc

Sex av åtta partier överens om att slopa överskottsmålet

oktober 17, 2024

Ramverket ska justeras från och med 2027 – till ett balansmål fast med ett bevarat skuldankare, det vill säga att bruttoskulden ska vara 35 procent av BNP. Edward Riedl (M), ordförande i finansutskottet och ledamot i kommittén, är nöjd. – Dagens besked innebär att Sverige nu slutar amortera på en av Europas lägsta statsskulder och vi permanentar den här mycket låga nivån, säger han. Fredrik Olovsson (S), vice ordförande i finansutskottet, är inne på samma spår. SvD/TT 17 oktober 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/XjWQ8o/uppgifter-overskottsmalet-slopas RE OBS att överskott hos staten betyder underskott hos hushåll och företag Att gå från ett överskottsmål till ett balansmål är rimligt Många socialdemokrater hade velat ha ett underskottsmål i stället, och det finns dessutom kongressbeslut på ett system där strategiska infrastrukturprojekt exkluderas från budgetreglerna. Överskottsmålet/balansmålet lämnar en hel del utrymme för tolkning. Målet ska nås över en konjunkturcykel – inte så lätt att

A Trump Presidency Radically Remake World Trade

oktober 17, 2024

Tariffs could rise to highest levels since the 1930s. Anything from a global trade war to a U.S.-led system against China could be the result. In his first term as president, Donald Trump resurrected tariffs as a tool of economic diplomacy, regularly deploying them as a lever to extract new trade deals from other countries. The result was a world trading system with a bit more friction, but it remained largely intact. The free trade consensus that prevailed from 1995 until Trump’s election in 2016 isn’t going to return even if Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, wins. She may add to the mix of tariffs imposed on China during Trump’s first term and manufacturing support overseen by President Biden. But these would represent incremental changes, whereas a re-elected Trump could fundamentally remake the world trading system. In short, no one knows what Trump has in mind. Greg Ip Wall Street Journal 16 October 2024 https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/donald-trump-elect

Jessica Rosencrantz EU-minister”active rule of law policy” med udden riktad mot Ungern

oktober 17, 2024

”Ytterst handlar detta om det ungerska folket”, säger Rosencrantz till Dagens Nyheter: ”Jag vill att människor ska leva i ett sammanhang där rättsstatens principer respekteras.” Om Viktor Orbáns regering inte börjar leva upp till Rosencrantz föreställningar om en rättsstats förpliktelser mot sina medborgare vill hon helt enkelt stoppa framtida utbetalningar av EU-bidrag till Ungern. https://www.fokus.se/kronika/vad-gor-vi-nasta-gang-vi-behover-ungern/ Sverige vill stoppa EU:s pengar till Ungern Inte en endaste euro till Ungern från EU. Det kan bli följden av ett finsktsvenskt förslag om att stärka demokratin i unionen. – Inga pengar ska gå till ett land som inte lever upp till unionens grundläggande krav på en rättsstat, säger Sveriges nya EU-minister Jessica Rosencrantz. Tillsammans med sin finländska kollega har hon skrivit ett brev https://www.europaportalen.se/sites/default/files/dokument/Svenskt-finsk%20brev%20till%20KOMM%20september%202024%20RoL.pdf till EU-kommissionen om at

Volkswagen är största ägare i Northvolt, vinstvarningar och elbilsomställningen har kommit av sig; BYD Is Winning

oktober 17, 2024

Under första halvåret sjönk rörelsemarginalen till bara 2,3 procent, och sedan dess har förutsättningarna försämrats och varumärket kan gå mot förlust i år. Magnus Dagel DI 17 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/analys/kostnaderna-gackar-stenrika-jatten/ BYD Is Winning the Global Race to Make Cheaper EVs The Chinese company is flooding markets with its cars—while the US is doing everything it can to keep the booming brand out. Biden imposed a 100% tariff on EVs exported from China; in September his administration proposed a ban on the sale or import of connected cars with Chinese hardware or software, underscoring a fear in US national security circles that internet-connected cars could become tools of Chinese surveillance or cyber warfare. In October, the EU slapped a 17% tariff on BYD’s EV imports, Bloomberg 16 oktober 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-10-16/electric-car-brand-byd-leads-race-to-make-cheap-evs-despite-tariffs Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 17 okto

The lock-in effect, high mortgage rates and climate risk are affecting home buyers

oktober 17, 2024

After two decades working in housing policy, Priscilla Almodovar is intimately familiar with the challenges the U.S. faces when it comes to housing. The Brooklyn native took the reins of the New York State Housing Finance Agency in 2007 amid a financial crisis that was fueled by a crash in subprime mortgages. Today, buyers are facing the opposite problem: Demand for homes is so insatiable that even as mortgage rates remain elevated and home-insurance costs soar, home prices keep inching up to new record highs. Aarthi Swaminathan MarketWatch 16 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-mae-ceo-says-she-has-never-seen-a-housing-market-like-this-before-5b3d360f

US Stealth Bombers Strike Houthi Weapons Sites in Yemen

oktober 17, 2024

Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea have disrupted shipping The strikes hit what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said were five hardened underground facilities. He said the use of the B-2 bombers was intended to send a message. “This was a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened, or fortified,” Bloomberg 17 October 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-17/us-bombers-strike-houthi-weapons-storage-sites-in-yemen Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 17 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-16-oktober_17.html ,

Därför vinner Trump valet; och det var i Fokus ni läste det först

oktober 16, 2024

Harris/Walz är bortom räddning. Huvudproblemet för Harris/Walz-kampanjen är inte de personliga lögnerna, utan de politiska. Vilka spricker som troll i ljuset. Man påstår sig alltid ha varit för strikta gränskontroller. En osanning som alla genomskådar. Och för fracking. Inte heller sant. Man vägrar erkänna att man är för aborter ända till månad nio. Väljarna, kanske inte alltid så insatta, ser lögnen i lögnarens ansikte. Här fick ni grundanalysen. Till den ska läggas att väljarna minns att Trump presiderade över en stark ekonomi, kontrollerad gräns, samt undvek att dra in sitt krigströtta land i krig. Medan Harris är oprövad som ledare. Amerikanerna ser och hör: Detta är inte en särskilt intelligent person. När hennes teleprompter nyligen hackade under ett tal, kunde hon inte improvisera fram en enda mening, utan fastnade i repetition av de ord hon nyss sagt. Erik Hörstadius Fokus 12 oktober 2024 https://www.fokus.se/kronika/darfor-vinner-trump-valet/ Intervjun med Fox News var Kam

FAM via ägarbolaget Wallenberg Investments AB

oktober 16, 2024

FAM ägs av de tre största Wallenbergstiftelserna – Knut och Alice Wallenbergs Stiftelse, Marianne och Marcus Wallenbergs Stiftelse och Stiftelsen Marcus och Amalia Wallenbergs Minnesfond – via ägarbolaget Wallenberg Investments AB. https://fam.se/sv/om-oss ”Vi på FAM är av den bestämda uppfattningen att det aldrig är okej att ljuga, att ingångna avtal ska hållas och att räkningar ska betalas i tid”, säger FAM:s vd Håkan Buskhe, som även är vice ordförande i Stora Enso. DI 16 oktober 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/wallenbergs-kritik-mot-stora-enso-aldrig-okej-att-ljuga/ Investor https://www.investorab.com/sv/om-investor EQT https://eqtgroup.com/sv/ Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 16 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-16-oktober.html

Global electricity demand to double by 2050: IEA

oktober 16, 2024

An egret rests atop solar panels at a photovoltaic power generation base in Yinchuan, in northwestern China’s Ningxia region on July 9, 2024. Photo: Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Mainly due to the scale of China’s monumental energy transition, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024 Electricity demand worldwide is set to increase at rates equivalent to adding a new Japan to the world each year, with the majority of that new demand now expected to come from the People’s Republic of China https://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-electricity-demand-to-double-by-2050-ieas-world-energy-outlook-says-ededbb1d Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 16 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-16-oktober.html

Einhorn says it’s the most expensive stock market in decades; 30 to 50 times earnings

oktober 16, 2024

Buffett stock sales indicate now is not a great time to have a lot of equity exposure The S&P 500 index actually fell on Tuesday, but still managed to close at its second-best level in history. David Einhorn, the hedge-fund star who co-founded Greenlight Capital, isn’t thriving as the bull market turns three years of age. The Greenlight letter says it is by many measures the most expensive stock market since the founding of the firm, which was in 1996. The firm points out that Warren Buffett has been among the best market timers the world has ever seen — closing a fund in the late 1960s, re-emerging near the market bottom in the early 1970s, selling many holdings ahead of the 1987 crash, capitalizing on the 2008 global financial crisis — and now has been in a selling mode. The Greenlight letter points out it’s not just technology stocks with “nosebleed valuations” — pointing to mature, industrial businesses that trade for 30 to 50 times earnings. Steve Goldstein MarketWatch 16

Wall Street och Stockholm 16 oktober 2024: Global electricity demand to double by 2050; semikolon

oktober 16, 2024

says Nomura Capital Management’s Matt Rowe Vivien Lou Chen MarketWatch 15 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bond-market-may-be-at-risk-from-inflationary-forces-beyond-the-feds-control-435fd907 Global electricity demand to double by 2050; IEA https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/global-electricity-demand-to-double-by.html European Regulators Make a Power Grab; European leaders delete references to the flag in the constitution. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/european-regulators-make-power-grab.html Einhorn says it’s the most expensive stock market in decades; 30 to 50 times earnings https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/einhorn-says-its-most-expensive-stock.html Därför vinner Trump valet; och det var i Fokus ni läste det först https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/darfor-vinner-trump-valet-och-det-var-i.html Att använda semikolon rätt är en svår men skön konst. Semikolon har flera användningsområden, men det följs alltid av liten bokstav (

European Regulators Make a Power Grab European leaders delete references to the flag in the constitution.

oktober 16, 2024

In May the EU adopted the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, which converts a range of international conventions into binding law enforceable on American companies. The new regulation forces U.S. companies to adhere to the EU’s “net zero” carbon emissions target and to comply with onerous labor-related standards—even when they exceed the requirements of U.S. law. In addition to imposing severe financial penalties for violations, the rule establishes a private right of action that gives activists an incentive to bombard companies with frivolous lawsuits. Though the regulation directly targets U.S. companies with European market revenue exceeding €450 million (about $500 million), it indirectly harms small and medium-size businesses too. It requires big companies to police their subsidiaries and supply chains for compliance with environmental, social and governance standards, even if these smaller firms otherwise wouldn’t be covered by the rule. Wall Street Journal 15

Even if the Federal Reserve engineers a soft landing

oktober 15, 2024

... the bank’s monetary policy during and after the pandemic will distort the housing market for years to come. In the spring of 2020, as the world was in full pandemic panic and the US economy was in free-fall, the Federal Reserve turned to the emergency playbook from the financial crisis: It cut interest rates to zero and restarted quantitative easing, buying up longer-dated Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, known as MBS. This time, however, it went much bigger — expanding its balance sheet to $8.9 trillion in 2022, compared to $2 trillion in 2009. The result was record-low mortgage rates and $8 trillion worth of mortgage originations in 2020 and 2021, as people bought homes and refinanced at the historically low rates. Because the US has 30-year fixed rate mortgages, many Americans are still benefiting from the low rates. More than half of homeowners now have mortgage rates below 4%. They will not be moving anytime soon. That means less inventory, so new buyers are fa

Wall Street och Stockholm 15 oktober 2024

oktober 15, 2024

Can the Stock Market Keep Going Up? Market Watchers Think So. The bullishness on Wall Street is largely based on confidence that the Federal Reserve will tame inflation, the economy will remain solid and corporate earnings will continue to grow. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/15/business/stock-market-valuation-outlook.html Nvidia sjönk ( 4.55% ) efter negativa nyheter av geopolitisk natur. https://www.di.se/live/halvledarsektorn-pressade-wall-street-backade/ Even if the Federal Reserve engineers a soft landing the bank’s monetary policy during and after the pandemic will distort the housing market for years to come . https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/even-if-federal-reserve-engineers-soft.html The ‘neutral’ interest rate interest — or “r star,” as economists call it https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/the-elusive-neutral-interest-rate.html Spread of French level of the 2012 “whatever it takes” moment - Tusk “temporarily suspending asylum rights.” https://englundmacro

The elusive ‘neutral’ interest rate interest — or “r star,” as economists call it

oktober 15, 2024

As the Fed starts cutting, that’s making some on Wall Street nervous about a potential reacceleration of inflation. The so-called neutral rate of interest — or “r star,” as economists call it — is the standard against which the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy is judged as either “tight” or “loose.” Because the neutral rate is a theoretical concept, nobody can say for certain exactly where it lies. Since the start of the pandemic, senior Fed officials have espoused a wider range of opinions about where they see the neutral rate. Chief among their concerns is the possibility that the neutral rate might be higher than the Fed expects. If this turns out to be true, the central bank could inadvertently lower interest rates too aggressively, potentially contributing to another wave of inflation. Indeed, some market-based barometers, like the spread between the 5-year Treasury note yield 3.893% and that of its inflation-protected counterpart, appear to be already picking up on the

Spread of French level of the 2012 “whatever it takes” moment - Tusk “temporarily suspending asylum rights.”

oktober 15, 2024

The ECB still has the genes of the very inflation-resistant Bundesbank. The bloc has been far keener than the US to resort to austerity, and its economy has failed to grow anything like as fast Unemployment is very significantly higher. The ECB doesn’t have a full employment mandate like the Fed Europe’s politics are not propitious for the ECB to be at all hawkish. The economic structure of the euro zone — which forced Mario Draghi to promise to do “whatever it takes” to save the currency from its sovereign debt crisis 12 years ago — is in question again. The spread of French over German sovereign bond yields, the market’s measure of the perceived extra risk, is at almost exactly its level of the 2012 “whatever it takes” moment. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk — formerly president of the European Council and a great champion of the European project — created a shock over the weekend by announcing that his country was “temporarily suspending asylum rights.” That came after Germ

Wall Street och Stockholm 14 oktober 2024

oktober 14, 2024

Nvidia 16.40 EU Finance Chiefs Know They’re in Trouble https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/eu-finance-chiefs-know-theyre-in-trouble.html U.S. to Deploy Missile Defense System and About 100 Troops to Israel President Biden directed Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, or THAAD, and its crew Terminal High Altitude Area Defense - Wikipedia The move will put American troops operating the ground-based interceptor, which is designed to defend against ballistic missiles, closer to the widening war in the Middle East. It comes after Iran launched about 200 missiles at Israel on Oct. 1 and as Israel plans its retaliatory attack. New York Times 13 October 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/13/us/politics/us-missile-defense-iran-israel.html “For those who want this defendant put to death, let me say simply that there can be no exception to principle,” Kamala Harris wrote “I gave my word to the people of San Francisco that I o

EU Finance Chiefs Know They’re in Trouble

oktober 14, 2024

It has taken the politicians charged with actually steering the European economy some time to accept the seriousness of the challenges they face. But they are starting to get it now. Most of all, there is a bitter split over the idea of more joint borrowing by EU members. Paschal Donohoe, the Irish official who leads meetings of euro-area finance ministers, had his own epiphany when Group of Seven economy chiefs met in Italy on Lake Maggiore in May. They gathered in the Grand Hotel des Iles Borromées, a Belle Epoque edifice with sweeping staircases, crystal chandeliers and frescoed ceilings, as a reminder of the era when Europe’s economies were the richest in the world. Bloomberg 14 October 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/eu-summit-europe-finance-chiefs-divided-over-bloc-s-economic-problems Tillbaka till Wall Street och Stockholm 14 oktober 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-14-oktober.html

US Homeowners haven’t drained cash out of their houses this fast since 2008

oktober 13, 2024

In the first half of this year lenders originated more than 333,000 new home-equity loans totaling about $23.6 billion With home values soaring over the last few years, homeowners who have built up equity are turning to home-equity loans to cash in on their gains. Homeowners are tapping into their home equity to cover expenses such as home renovations or to consolidate debt. They’re taking on a second mortgage rather than refinancing because they want to avoid giving up the relatively low rate on their primary mortgage. Aarthi Swaminathan MarketWatch 12 October 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/homeowners-havent-drained-cash-out-of-their-houses-this-fast-since-2008-2e080b36 U.S. Home Prices Hit Record in June - Sverige har en liknande utveckling https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/us-home-prices-hit-record-in-june.html Housing Bubbles in America https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/06/housing-bubbles-in-america-wolf-street.html Why the bulls are running and the consum

Volvos senaste bästsäljare EX30 tillverkas idag i Kina. ”Cold War II”

oktober 13, 2024

Tyskland gick ett steg längre än Sverige. Berlin röstade mot tullarna. Den tyska bilindustrin har mycket att förlora på ett handelskrig. European Council of Foreign Relations ECFR:s rapport beskriver ett scenario där de europeiska bilföretagen fortsätter bygga dyra och stora bilar. De förlorar stort mot kinesiska tillverkare vilka redan i dag har 75 elbilsmodeller som kostar mindre än 20 000 dollar. Dessa små elbilar visar sig funka utmärkt för smala europeiska vägar och små europeiska plånböcker. Katrine Kielos SvD 13 oktober 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/al3l7L/kina-tullarna-pa-elbilar-ett-farligt-geopolitiskt-spel https://www.volvocars.com/se/cars/ex30-electric/ Paula Röttorp: Det var med förvåning jag hörde att USA nu befinner sig i ett kallt krig med Kina om ekonomisk, teknologisk och militär världshegemoni. Att ”Cold War II”, andra kalla kriget, inte är ett hotande framtidsscenario, utan dagens verklighet. Och att det måste prägla allt USA gör framåt – för att behålla och utveckl

Wall Street och Stockholm 12-13 oktober 2024

oktober 13, 2024

The European project is approaching a tipping point. Macron: “the EU could die.” The European project is approaching a tipping point. (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Volvos senaste bästsäljare EX30 tillverkas idag i Kina https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/volvos-senaste-bastsaljare-ex30.html Det brittiska Torypartiet står inför en historisk ledarstrid Det brittiska Torypartiet står inför en historisk ledarstrid (englundmacro.blogspot.com) US Homeowners haven’t drained cash out of their houses this fast since 2008 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/us-homeowners-havent-drained-cash-out.html A new version of both Chelsea and Mayfair in Dubai and Abu Dhabi https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/a-new-version-of-both-chelsea-and.html Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/wall-street-och-stockholm-11-oktober.html Stock Market Data CNN https://edition.cnn.com/markets My website https://internetional.se/