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  1928 Rally Was Just Like This One; Authers https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/1928-rally-was-just-like-this-one.html Fondspararna gör helt rätt som sparar genom att köpa fondandelar både när börsen går upp och ner,  säger Rebecca Jansson, ekonom vid bransch­organisationen Fondbolagens förening. Den totala fondförmögenheten är nu 8,2 biljoner kronor. Wall Street stänger svagt ned https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-stanger-svagt-ned-tesla-foll-tillbaka/ 10Y 4,440 Kraftig nedgång på Stockholmsbörsen. Nedgången var bred och flera indextunga bolag föll tydligt  utan bolagsspecifika nyheter.  https://www.di.se/live/kraftig-nedgang-pa-stockholmsborsen-atlas-copco-och-sandvik-foll / Kaja Kallas: Ryssland måste förlora kriget Estlands förra premiärminister Kaja Kallas har nominerats som efterträdare till spanske Josep Borrell  EU har försett Ukraina med sammanlagt över 980 000 artillerigranater Den svaga europeiska euron https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/11/12/why-germany-and-t

  – Under oktober föll Stockholmsbörsen drygt 4 procent men trots det har fondspararna fortsatt sitt långsiktiga sparande och satt in pengar.  Det är ett fortsatt positivt netto­sparande precis så som tidigare i år, säger Rebecca Jansson, ekonom vid bransch­organisationen på Fondbolagens förening. https://www.fondbolagen.se/ – Eftersom det är omöjligt att tajma marknaden gör fondspararna helt rätt som sparar regelbundet och därmed sprider risken genom att köpa fondandelar både när börsen går upp och ner, säger Rebecca Jansson. Svenskarnas fondförmögenhet till cirka två tredjedelar är placerad i renodlade aktiefonder ISK har under januari–september i år haft ett nettoinflöde på 25 miljarder kronor  Johan Hellekant SvD 12 november 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/Jbp4E8/fondformogenhet-satter-rekord-kompenserar-inflationen Fondbolagen höjer sin lönsamhet när kapitalet ökar. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/07/fjolaret-blev-stralande-for-flera-av-de.html Swedbanks fondbolag Robur, noterade

  Again, to be clear, a primitive overlay chart is no kind of evidence that the stock market is destined for a crash like 1929.  Nothing proves that the stock market is about to fall as it did on those two occasions.  But the higher the valuation, the higher the odds against continued strong performance. The spread of high-yield bonds’ yields over Treasuries, a crucial measure of the compensation you receive for lending to companies with weak credit, has dropped to a 17-year low in recent days Again, this absolutely doesn’t prove, or even suggest, that we’re about to stage a repeat of the GFC.  It does, however, strongly indicate that markets are very ungenerously priced for anyone who wants to enter.  John Authers  Bloomberg 12 November 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-12/trump-post-election-stocks-rally-looks-just-like-1928   https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-s-p-500-breaks-above-6-000-for-the-first-time-why-u-s-stocks-may-have-more-upside-ahead-96a06d09 Ni

Kaja Kallas: Ryssland måste förlora kriget Estlands förra premiärminister Kaja Kallas har nominerats som efterträdare till spanske Josep Borrell och väntas tillträda med resten av den nya EU-kommissionen den 1 december. – Vi måste se till att Ryssland förlorar sitt sista koloniala krig, säger Kallas i den utfrågning hon genomgår i EU-parlamentets utrikesutskott inför tillträdet. DN/TT 12 november 2024 https://www.dn.se/varlden/folj-det-sakerhetspolitiska-laget-i-europa/  unionens utrikeschef Josep Borrell. Borrell säger nu att EU:s mål om totalt en miljon granater till Ukraina kan komma att nås ”mycket snart”, rapporterar Reuters med hänvisning till tidningen European Pravda. SvT 11 november 2024 https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage?inlagg=68a8e6a11823beaef1d5173b29a59f40 https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/interview/2024/11/11/7198104/ https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/ EPF Europeiska fredsfaciliteten Josep Borrell Fontelles, Commission Vice

The prospect of higher American interest rates has pushed the value of the dollar up by 1.5% against a broad basket of currencies over the past four weeks. Countries and firms that have borrowed in dollars but lack sources of dollar revenue, a rising greenback mechanically bloats their debt burden and boosts their interest costs.  Higher interest rates in America, coupled with a rising dollar, also makes investing in the rest of the world less attractive. Capital tends to flow out from emerging markets, forcing them to raise interest rates as well, tightening monetary conditions just when their economies may start to suffer from a general trade slowdown. The Economist 10 November 2024 https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/11/10/americas-strengthening-dollar-will-rattle-the-rest-of-the-world Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 11 November 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-11-november-2024.html

Central banks escape route from of boom and bust; John Plender https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/central-banks-escape-route-from-of-boom.html Tyskland dumpar sitt överskottsmål https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/tyskland-dumpar-sitt-overskottsmal.html Tongivande EU-länder som Tyskland och Frankrike befinner sig i inrikespolitiskt sönderfall https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/tongivande-eu-lander-som-tyskland-och.html Strengthening dollar will rattle the rest of the world https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/strengthening-dollar-will-rattle-rest.html Does Warren Buffett Know Something? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/does-warren-buffett-know-something.html Små rörelser på USA-börserna https://www.di.se/live/sma-rorelser-pa-usa-borserna-lakemedelsjatte-rasade-tvasiffrigt/ Tesla's Stock Price Keeps Climbing, Jumps Back Above $1 Trillion Market Cap https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-11-11-2024/card/now-back-abo

En förvarning om en framtid då Ryssland allt tydligare blir en vasallstat till Kina.  Då får Europa indirekt Kina som granne genom ett försvagat Ryssland.  I detta nya läge har Europa hamnat i en bråddjup identitetskris som tar sig olika uttryck. De gamla etablerade partierna står handfallna inför dessa missnöjesyttringar, bland annat eftersom de misslyckats med att formulera ett trovärdigt realistiskt europeiskt framtidsperspektiv.  President Macron har ännu inte lyckats bygga upp något stabilt stödparti. Rolf Gustavsson SvD 11 november 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/4BrK2q/europa-i-nytt-lage-vad-kommer-att-handa The Economist: Germany is bound by an absurd constitutional “debt brake” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-economist-germany-is-bound-by.html  Denna sammanfallande förbannelse har sina rötter i Maastricht Rolf Gustavsson SvD 3 december 2022 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2022/12/rolf-gustavsson-denna-sammanfallande.html Med Barroso från EEC till en federation of nat

Friluftsbolaget Thule ska köpa det australiensiska bolaget Quad Lock,  som tillverkar mobilfästen för bland annat cyklar, för en köpesumma på omkring 3,6 miljarder kronor.  Enligt en analytiker som Di pratat med är prislappen billig.  DI 11 november 2024 https://www.di.se/live/glada-miner-pa-stockholmsborsen-lindab-och-thule-draglok/

The 2 per cent figure was politically plucked out of the air in 1990 to be used by the central bank of New Zealand — a tiny country with agriculture as the main part of its economy — and later copied by other countries  It had — and has — no scientific base.  US inflation averaged 3.3 per cent over 100 years from 1914 to 2014, during which time the economy did well  Yet despite those facts, Fed chair Jay Powell has said in recent times: “We are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 per cent goal in support of a strong economy that benefits everyone.” https://www.ft.com/content/d7a23964-af9e-42ef-abbb-a06b565cb99c John Plender The widespread adoption of 2 per cent inflation targets has been, at best, a mixed blessing. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/central-banks-escape-route-from-of-boom.html Bara inflationen blir två procent kommer allt att bli bra - den nya religionen  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/bara-inflationen-blir-tva-procent.html Riksbankens

The widespread adoption of 2 per cent inflation targets has been, at best, a mixed blessing. Conventional economic wisdom tells us that monetary policy has no lasting effects on the real economy.  This simply does not square with what has happened in the era of financial deregulation which has been marked by repeated, ever   William White, former economic adviser at the Bank for International Settlements, points out https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/WP_210-White-Monetary-Policy.pdf that the first three of the four interest cycles we have seen since the late 1980s — ending in 1990, 2001, 2008 and 2020 — finished with a financial crisis What we know for sure is that ultra-low interest rates after the 2007-09 financial crisis were morally hazardous, encouraging a huge increase in borrowing.  Global debt rose from 280 per cent as a percentage of GDP in 2008 to nearly 360 per cent in 2021.   Excessive monetary easing has had other unintended consequences. The world is at risk of

Berkshire Hathaway is hoarding cash in a pattern seen before the financial crisis, but it has a new reason this time Buffett has turned cautious before in 1969 when he said markets were too frothy and also building up substantial cash in the years leading up to the global financial crisis—money he deployed opportunistically. With T-bills now yielding more than the prospective return on stocks, it might seem that Buffett has taken as many chips off of the table as possible since there is no upside in risky stocks.  Spencer Jakab Wall Street Journal 11 November 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/does-warren-buffett-know-something-that-we-dont-48fabc9d 3.500 miljarder kronor. Så stor är nu kassan i Warren Buffetts investmentbolag Berkshire Hathaway Det mesta – 288 miljarder dollar – är investerat i amerikanska statspapper med kort löptid.  https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/warren-buffett-slashes-apple-boosts.html   Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 11 November 2024 https://engl

  A future government may be forced to legislate to lift its Schwarze Null, or black zero, debt brake. This iron rule prevents the state budget balance straying into deficit, but since the pandemic there have been workarounds for this — temporary in name but suffering repeated legal tussles. If any replacement coalition can command a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, it may be forced to cross this previously unthinkable Rubicon.  Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg 11 november 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-11/the-mighty-german-bund-is-losing-its-benchmark-shine Germany’s Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has finally admitted economic reality and announced a temporary suspension of the country’s infamous debt brake — known as the Schwarze Null (Black Zero) rule, which insists on a budget balanced between fiscal spending and tax receipts. Such temporary measures have a curious tendency to become permanent. Marcus Ashworth Bloomberg 26 februari 2020 https://www.bloomberg.c

Jag hittade detta när jag letade efter något annat på min blogg.  Det får bli Favorit i repris med ny etikett. Martin Sandbu, the economics leader writer for the Financial Times, skrev (FT 2 april 2012) en ledare som argumenterade emot att Grekland och andra länder borde lämna euron. Han borde veta vad han pratar om. Hans meriter är inte dåliga."Sandbu has a B.A. in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Balliol College, University of Oxford, and an A.M. and Ph.D. in Political Economy and Government from Harvard University". Nuförtiden verkar fisksoppeargumentet,  att det är lätt att göra fisksoppa av ett akvarium, men svårt att ångra sig och försöka göra ett akvarium av fisksoppan,  ha bytt ut till liknelsen att det är lätt att göra citronsaft av citroner, men svårt att göra citroner av citronsaft. Ekonomerna gör framsteg, vill jag lova. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2012/04/eurokrisen-fisksoppan-och-elitens.html Margit Gennser brukade säga att de ingen elit, de är bara

The Economist: Germany is bound by an absurd constitutional “debt brake” https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/the-economist-germany-is-bound-by.html Det går inte åt rätt håll https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/det-gar-inte-at-ratt-hpll.html Trump adviser says Ukraine focus must be peace, not territory https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/trump-adviser-says-ukraine-focus-must.html Skall man skratta eller gråta över EU?   https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/skall-man-skratta-eller-grata-over-eu.html Det akkadiska imperiets kollaps https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/det-akkadiska-imperiets-kollaps.html Woke is broke https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/some-democrats-are-finally-waking-up.html Democrats’ shell shock is real CNN 10 November 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/politics/democrats-election-party-future-voters/index.html Eurokrisen, fisksoppan och elitens olidliga dumhet https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/eurokrisen-fisksoppan-och-

  In the past Europe has made progress only when propelled by both cylinders of its Franco-German motor.  Today, France is led by Emmanuel Macron.  Germany has been led by a bickering three-way coalition.  Its collapse leaves the chancellor hoping to stagger on at the head of a minority government until early elections are held in March. In part, this paralysis is because Germany is bound by an absurd constitutional “debt brake” that bans it from running more than tiny deficits.  The Eonomist 7 November 2024 https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/11/07/europe-needs-to-wake-up-and-look-after-itself Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 9-10 November 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-9-10-november-2024.html

  Växthusgasnivåerna steg till ny rekordnivå 2023, enligt rapport från WMO  | SMHI https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/record-hot-2024-seen-breaching-1-5c-paris-target-for-first-time Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 9-10 November 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-9-10-november-2024.html

För över 4000 år sedan fanns ett stort rike i dagens Syrien, Turkiet och Irak.  Det akkadiska riket regerade i över 140 år men kollapsade år 2154 f.Kr.  https://www.svtplay.se/historiska-apokalypser The Akkadian Empire was the first known ancient empire of Mesopotamia, succeeding the long-lived civilization of Sumer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akkadian_Empire Sumer is the earliest known civilization, located in the historical region of southern Mesopotamia (now south-central Iraq), emerging during the Chalcolithic and early Bronze Ages between the sixth and fifth millennium BC . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumer Babylon, Which Ruled The World Three Times https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/babylon-which-ruled-world-three-times.html Rome fell. Will West follow suit? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/07/rome-fell-will-west-follow-suit.html EU:s storslagna vision; Annika Ström Melin https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/eus-storslagna-vision-annika-strom-melin.html Til

Donald Trump won a majority of white women and remarkable numbers of Black and Latino voters and young men. Democratic insiders thought people would vote for Kamala Harris, even if they didn’t like her, to get rid of Trump.  But more people ended up voting for Trump, even though many didn’t like him, because they liked the Democratic Party less. Maureen Dowd New York Times 9 November 2024 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/09/opinion/democrats-identity-politics.html Harris i SNL: ”Skrattar jag verkligen sådär? ” https://www.svd.se/a/rP5v9w/harris-i-snl-skrattar-jag-verkligen-sadar Tillbaka till Rolfs länktips 9-10 November 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-9-10-november-2024.html

A senior adviser to President-elect Donald Trump says the incoming administration will focus on achieving peace in Ukraine rather than enabling the country to gain back territory occupied by Russia. Bryan Lanza, a Republican party strategist, told the BBC the Trump administration would ask Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his version of a "realistic vision for peace". "And if President Zelensky comes to the table and says, well we can only have peace if we have Crimea, he shows to us that he's not serious," he said.  BBC 9 November 2024 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czxrwr078v7o G7 leaders agreed that Russia’s sovereign assets would remain immobilized until Russia repays Ukraine for the damage https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/10/versailles-ryssland-g7-och-ukraina.html French president once advocated dialogue with Russia https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/french-president-once-advocated.html Ukraina önskar omedelbart EU-inträde februari

  The EU needs to streamline decision-making channels  and reduce excessive and costly bureaucracy. At an EU summit in Budapest Draghi reiterated what reforms  EU required  to keep pace with the US and China.  He cautioned that time was running out, and decisive action was required. https://www.dw.com/en/eu-summit-in-budapest-how-can-the-eu-remain-competitive/a-70740519 EU competitiveness: Looking ahead - European Commission Vi behöver för detta en avreglering som vitaliserar den inre marknaden och som fördjupar och utvidgar den in i alla de medlems­stater vars lagar och regler fortfarande skyddar tjänste­sektorn, nationella företag och monopol. Gunnar Hökmark, Anders Borg, Benjamin Dousa och Finacial Times om EU; nettobetalare till EU

Bloomberg Europe Francis Fukuyama: what Trump means for America https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/francis-fukuyama-what-trump-means-for.html Gunnar Hökmark, Anders Borg, Benjamin Dousa  och Finacial Times om EU; nettobetalare till EU https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/gunnar-hokmark-anders-borg-och-finacial.html USA-börserna summerade en urstark vecka  med samtliga tre stora index på historiska högstanivåer. Tesla fortsatte att stiga kraftigt https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-summerar-urstark-vecka-pa-historiska-hogstanivaer/ Stockholmsbörsen backade på fredagen,  men kan tack vare gårdagens uppgång summera en plusvecka. https://www.di.se/live/rod-borsdag-i-stockholm-gruvbolag-backade-pa-kinabesvikelse/  Dagen innan https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/11/rolfs-lanktips-7-november-2024.html

  Ryssland kommer att vara ett hot mot Europa för lång tid framöver. För att vi ska kunna möta detta krävs en politik som bygger på militär styrka och ekonomiska reformer som ger ekonomisk tillväxt och stärker de ekonomiska strukturer som bygger samhällelig säkerhet. Europa måste växla över till en snabbare tillväxt som kan ge oss en roll när det gäller utvecklingen av AI, digitalisering, nya material, moderna energi­källor, avancerad industri samt strategiska råvaru­tillgångar för att Europa ska kunna vara en ledande partner och kraft i den globala ekonomin.  Det kräver en revidering av all EU-lagstiftning de senaste 20 åren. Förre ECB-chefen Mario Draghis rapport... Vi behöver för detta en avreglering som vitaliserar den inre marknaden och som fördjupar och utvidgar den in i alla de medlems­stater vars lagar och regler fortfarande skyddar tjänste­sektorn, nationella företag och monopol. Gunnar Hökmark SvD 6 november 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/zA9MOK/gunnar-hokmark-europa-behover-chock