Englund

Ivan Boesky is a renowned American arbitrageur who came to epitomize the motto "greed is good" during the financial excess of the 1980s.  A major player in the hostile takeover and junk bond craze, his words partly inspired the fictional character Gordon Gekko in Oliver Stone's movie, Wall Street. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/ivan-boesky.asp AND: A reminder, Michael Douglas is much nicer than the original Gekko, Ivan Boesky https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/another-wall-street-bear-has-thrown-in.html Emilshus tar in 384 Mkr i nyemission – storägaren storsäljer DI 21 maj 2024 https://www.di.se/live/emilshus-tar-in-384-mkr-i-nyemission-storagaren-storsaljer/

 But the game of predicting the year-end index value is just that: a game; For the long term, the stock market still looks unhealthily expensive; AND: A reminder, Michael Douglas is much nicer than the original Gekko, Ivan Boesky "greed is good" https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/greed-is-good.html There appears to be more joy on Wall Street over one bear who capitulates than over 99 bulls who were positive all along. That might explain the fascination with the news that Mike Wilson, chief equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, has increased his year-end target for the S&P 500 from 4,600 to 5,400. That’s a big leap that came accompanied with a lengthy explanation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-20/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-capitulates-on-bearish-view-of-us-stocks The following chart traces the average S&P 500 forecasts for the end of 2024 over time, as collated by my colleague Lu Wang (they can also be found on the Bloomberg terminal at SPXSFRCS In

  Can things possibly be this good? (englundmacro.blogspot.com) big new risks to systemically important big new risks to systemically important (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Private Equity Risk https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/private-equity-risk.html CRE Investors want their money back https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/cre-investors-want-their-money-back.html CNN Fear & Greed Index https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed US Bond Yields https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/us-bond-yields.html About me https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/11/what-have-i-done-caveat-emptor.html My website https://internetional.se/ Börsen 17 maj 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/borsen-17-maj-2024.html  

A giant commercial real-estate fund is scrambling to escape a looming cash crunch caused by the long line of investors who want their money back. The $10 billion fund from Starwood Capital Group has been trying to preserve its available cash and credit by limiting investor redemptions. In the first quarter, the fund was hit with $1.3 billion in withdrawal requests but satisfied less than $500 million of them These developments have left the Starwood Real Estate Income Trust, known as Sreit, with three options—none of them appealing.  It could take on more debt. It could sell properties into a tough market. Or it could halt completely or limit further redemptions, a move that would greatly impair the fund’s ability to raise new money.  Unless it takes one of these three steps, Sreit looks poised to run out of cash and credit before year-end  if the current pace of redemptions continues. Other real-estate funds are handling the pressure from the long queue of redemptions in varying degre

The honour, which was approved by the Queen, is to recognise Mr Greenspan's "contribution to global economic stability" BBC 7 August 2002 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2177814.stm

Despite what people such as Marc Rowan might lead you to believe, there’s really no way to get a higher return without taking more risk. As Rowan sees it, people invest for their retirement for the long term. One reason private assets promise a higher return is they are less liquid. If you give your money to a private equity fund, it invests in assets that aren’t publicly traded, so you can’t sell them if you need to. After several years, the fund matures, and you get your money back with some return. In theory at least, you have been compensated for giving up liquidity with a higher return. If you don’t need liquidity — like most retirement savers, Rowan argues — you may as well get that illiquidity premium. Even the best private equity and credit managers are prone to groupthink and not seeing huge risks.  Even the smartest people can be blind to big risks — and a market price, on which a lot of smart people are making different bets that are transparent to everyone, is the best insu

Corporate Britain’s increased dependency on debt over the past few years creates “big new risks to systemically important employers, not only for jobs but for taxpayers,” says Liam Byrne, a former Labour Treasury minister who chairs Parliament’s business and trade committee.  “There are four to five highly leveraged general retailers like Morrisons and Asda, companies employing hundreds of thousands of people, owned by private equity firms that are taking risks in the dark. That’s a dangerous place for UK capitalism to be.” From pubs and gyms to Madame Tussauds, every kind of consumer business was fair game. The bet was that while these were often low-margin companies, they tended to own lots of buildings, and knockdown prices and near-zero interest rates made them look like surefire winners.  Many were piled up with debt to pay for the splurge, pushing the amount of leveraged loans and high-yield bonds issued by UK companies to a record £200 billion plus, according to data compiled by

Those siding with me in believing that we are already in a second cold war Then there is the Yale University/Hoover Institution view. the global situation today more closely resembles the world on the eve of one or the other of the world wars.  In an excellent new piece, Zelikow argues that it is a comforting delusion — indeed, “wishful thinking” — to believe we are in a cold war with China. Rather, we confront a new Axis — China, Russia, Iran and North Korea — that in many ways poses a bigger threat than the Germany-Japan-Italy Axis of the late 1930s and early 1940s, or the early Cold War combination of the Soviet Union, China and the other communist-controlled states. “The worst case, in a major crisis,” writes Zelikow, “will be if the United States and its allies commit to victory, animated by their own rhetoric and dutiful but ill-considered military plans, and then are outmaneuvered and defeated. It would be the ‘Suez moment’ for the United States, or perhaps much worse.”  Regular

By Vladislav M. Zubok Gorbachev had a poor understanding of the Soviet economy and launched ill-conceived economic reforms. Zubok condemns Gorbachev for radically weakening the Communist Party apparatus, the Soviet Union’s only effective governing mechanism, which eventually left him to powerlessly watch his country’s demise.  The book offers an impressive close-up of the hectic political and diplomatic activities between August 1991, the time of the failed Communist coup, and December of that year, when the Soviet Union formally ceased to exist.  Throughout, one is struck by the grand expectations that Gorbachev, his allies, and his opponents had of the West, and the United States in particular, as a source of political support, legitimation, and, especially, economic assistance. But as Washington watched its Cold War adversary plunge into a meltdown, it was no longer willing to keep extending credit to the Soviet Union and began focusing instead on protecting itself from the conseque

  Temperatures on Saturday in almost the entire country were expected to reach at least 35C, with several states reaching 45C. States of alert and emergency earlier this month after several Mexican cities suffered blackouts amid a heat wave. Bloomberg 18 May 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-18/mexico-declares-state-of-alert-for-power-grid-amid-heat-wave

Of the world’s 20 largest stock markets, 14 have hit all-time highs recently.  Looming interest rate cuts, healthy economies and corporate earnings are driving the activity. And what’s more, there are plenty of potential drivers to keep the rally rolling, such as the $6 trillion sitting in money market funds, while risks remain scarce. The April pullback in global stocks didn’t last long, as dip buyers consistently showed up US stocks have been on a $12 trillion rally since late October.  Bloomberg 18 May 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-18/tokyo-to-new-york-stock-markets-are-on-a-record-hitting-spree-around-the-world top Wall Street strategist Ed Yardeni MarketWatch 20 May 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-massive-earnings-surge-could-lift-the-dow-to-60-000-and-the-s-p-500-to-8-000-says-top-wall-street-strategist-7f5568c0 One of Wall Street’s last remaining bears has finally capitulated. - MarketWatch Deutsche Banks prognos ligger  på ”street high”-nivå, det

– Det är euroländerna som bestämmer, och så ska det vara. Men det är inte särskilt kul att stå där utanför och käka jordnötter liksom. I samband med den globala finanskrisen 2008 försvagades kronan med nästan 15 procent mot euron på kort tid. Men så återhämtade sig svensk industri också snabbare än exempelvis den finska. – Om poängen med en egen valuta är att kronan ska falla kraftigt mot euron om det blir dåligt i ekonomin, då är det inte säkert att det tas emot med blida ögon av andra.  Man kan inte bara närma sig det här som en makroekonomisk fråga, säger Stefan Ingves. DN 18 maj 2024 https://www.dn.se/ekonomi/stefan-ingves-sveriges-eu-medlemskap-blev-olyckligt-fran-borjan/ Som Riksbankschef flög Stefan Ingves regelbundet till den Europeiska centralbanken, ECB, i Frankfurt. Men eftersom Sverige inte har euro fick han sitta utanför dörren. Men det är ju inget konstigt med det.  Euroländerna träffades först för att t ex diskutera hur de skall förhindra att Italien, tidigare Grekland,

  With less than one month to go, surveys show the National Rally, led by Le Pen’s protégé, Jordan Bardella, will win the EU parliament vote with around double the score of Macron’s Renaissance group. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/france-latest-macron-faces-trouble-around-the-world-before-eu-vote

  But enjoyed it only for five days. Then, on July 1, 1960, it united with Somalia Italiana and formed the Republic of Somalia.  It took Somaliland more than three decades to unilaterally declare its independence after the collapse of Mohamed Siad Barre's government in 1991. But the declaration was never recognized internationally. Deutsche Welle 17 May 2024 https://www.dw.com/en/somaliland-eyes-ethiopias-recognition-amid-somalia-tensions/a-69015111 Though not internationally recognised, Somaliland has a working political system, government institutions, a police force and its own currency. The former British protectorate has also escaped much of the chaos and violence that plague Somalia. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14115069 How Tiny Djibouti Said ‘No’ to the US https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/how-tiny-djibouti-said-no-to-us.html  

The East African country is host to Chinese, French and US naval bases  The location of the tiny East African nation, at the point where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden, has made Djibouti — a predominantly Islamic country — a strategic priority for major powers.  It’s home to Chinese, French, Italian, Japanese and US military bases. Germany would like its own naval base in the country too, according to diplomats in the region. Tokyo has recently supplied new coastguard patrol vessels. Imagine a Cold War Berlin on the Horn of Africa, but this time acting as an intersection between the West and the Arab world. The up market Djibouti Palace Kempinski Hotel is popular with the tight-knit intelligence community. Prime Minister Abdoulkader Kamil Mohamed says that after the Houthi missile attacks began in October, the US asked for permission to conduct operations against the group from inside its naval base in Djibouti.  The government said no. Bloomberg 16 maj 2024 https://www.bloomberg.c

PIGS Are Flying Again. Remember the “PIGS,” short for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain?   PIGS Are Flying Again. (englundmacro.blogspot.com) How Tiny Djibouti Said ‘No’ to the US   How Tiny Djibouti Said ‘No’ to the US (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Kina tar krafttag nu när bostadspriserna snart fallit lika mycket som i Sverige https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/kina-tar-krafttag-nu-nar.html Thedéen: även om flera räntesänkningar väntar, ska man ha en realistiska förväntningar var räntan ska landa. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/thedeen-aven-om-flera-rantesankningar.html Huvudmannen i ekobrottshärvan i Malmfälten är spårlöst försvunnen Värden för över 1 miljard kronor saknas i konkurserna – det handlar om guldtackor, maskiner och en helikopter. Huvudmannen i ekobrottshärvan i Malmfälten är spårlöst försvunnen (englundmacro.blogspot.com) CNN Fear & Greed Index https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed US Bond Yields https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/04/us-b

Remember the “PIGS,” short for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain?  Four of the top-10 performers in the Stoxx Europe 600 index over the past year are Italian and Spanish banks: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banco de Sabadell, Banca Popolare di Sondrio and UniCredit.  In Greece and Italy, yields on 10-year government bonds have gone from trading roughly 2 percentage points above Germany’s to around 1 percentage point. This is an impressive turnaround for nations that many investors saw as irredeemable basketcases following the eurozone crisis of 2011 and 2012. in Europe, though, fiscal austerity is back. The European Parliament last month approved a new set of fiscal rules designed by the 27 EU states.  They will allow for more bespoke adjustment plans, but nevertheless force national governments to return to an arbitrary “structural” deficit below 1.5% and a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%.  This is a self-inflicted wound as the bloc tries to catch up with American and Chinese industria

 Det bekräftar chefsåklagare Mikael Bäckström för Di.  ”Vi har inte hållit något förhör med honom eller delgivit honom misstanke”, säger han.  Värden för över 1 miljard kronor saknas i konkurserna – det handlar om guldtackor, maskiner och en helikopter. DI 17 maj 2024 https://www.di.se/nyheter/aklagaren-bekraftar-huvudmannen-ar-forsvunnen/

Om jag har fattat detta diagram rätt  China  readies $42 billion of funding to buy unsold homes  Central bank funding to help government-backed firms buy excess inventory from developers.  Those properties would then be converted into affordable housing. The central bank on Friday cut the minimum down-payment ratio for first-time buyers to 15% The funding announced by China’s central bank is just a fraction of what some analysts say is needed to address the supply-demand mismatch in housing, and many potential buyers are waiting for prices to fall further before stepping in. Bloomberg 17 maj 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-17/china-removes-mortgage-rate-floor-for-individual-homebuyers-lwa88d1y RE: Det förefaller som om makthavarnas prioritet nr 1 världen över är att aktier och bostäder skall fortsätta att stiga. Is The Fed propping up the stock market? John Authers Bloomberg  8 maj 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/is-fed-propping-up-stock-market.html

Unrest in the territory could derail President Macron’s efforts to restore French influence in the Indo-Pacific French authorities said Thursday that 1,000 police officers were on their way to the territory, while the army was being deployed to secure ports and the main airport.  Around 1,700 police officers are already present in New Caledonia, where rioters have burned buildings, looted shops and set up road barricade Located about 900 miles east of Australia, New Caledonia is one of France’s 12 overseas territories, a legacy of the country’s colonial past.  Most former French colonies gained independence in the wake of World War II, but France held on to small islands across the globe.  Wall Street Journal 17 May 2024 https://www.wsj.com/world/oceania/france-rushes-reinforcements-to-riot-stricken-new-caledonia-95dc26fe

Att återvinna stödet i storstäderna, att vinna fler kvinnliga väljare samt att minska mängden väljare som splittrar sina röster mellan olika politiska nivåer.  För mig som är röstsplittare sedan åtminstone tre val tillbaka, är frågan odramatisk: jag väljer alltid person (kombinationen av karaktär och idéförankring) före parti.  Den ökade röstsplittringen kan delvis förklaras av statsvetaren Henrik Ekengren Oscarssons forskning, som visar att lokala politiker väljs på resultat, nationella på politiska intentioner.  Tove Lifvendahl SvD 17 maj 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/GyGL79/battre-schysst-an-oskon

 ”Det var där vi gick vilse för ett par år sedan, räntan kommer alltid att variera. Det långsiktiga är att styrräntan kanske ligger kring 2,5–3,0 upp till 3,5 procent.” ”Min bedömning är att juni inte ingår i andra halvåret och det troliga är att vi kan sänka två gånger under andra halvåret.”  ”Det goda med denna ränteuppgång är att alla blivit varse om det som jag och andra varnade för när vi hade nollränta, nämligen att den kan förändras, det har nu blivit sanning.” DI/TT 17 maj 2024 https://www.di.se/live/thedeen-varnar-for-ketchupeffekt-nar-rantan-sanks/

  Dow briefly traded above 40,000 for the first time ever but ended near 39,869, a loss of around 39 points, or 0.1% https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-jones-tops-40-000-for-first-time-to-deliver-psychological-boost-to-bulls-2a26b365 Dow Eclipses 40,000 for First Time as Investors Bet on Rate Cuts has climbed 23% since late October low https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/dow-eclipses-40-000-for-first-time-as-investors-bet-on-rate-cuts The issue is whether Powell’s post-meeting remarks on May 1  — in which he said the central bank’s next move is “unlikely” to be a rate hike —  are now easing financial conditions by so much that this ends up stalling progress on inflation.  https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-post-fed-stock-market-rally-is-raising-fresh-inflation-questions-d8c6d03c Argentina’s extreme experiment in Austrian economics is sailing dangerously close to the wind The president’s revolution is less Thatcherite than his rhetoric would suggest Argentina’s

  I”Nya riket” häcklar Strindberg sin samtids förvaltning och ämbetsmän. Staten försörjer ämbetsadelns ättelägg, introvert och korrupt är den med en överklass som köper eller ärver sina tjänster.  För att bli befordrad ”ska man ha ett namn som inte slutar på son, berg eller lund”. Och samhället självt är ett enda kotteri av släkt och vänner. Det var inte bättre förr. Men i dag är det sämre än för ett tag sedan. Det yttersta ansvaret vilar på regeringen. Den styr riket och har ytterst att bedöma om dess tjänstepersoner – ämbetsmannen är ju tyvärr avskaffad – leder sina verksamheter så att de förtjänar medborgarnas förtroende. Inga-Britt Ahlenius SvD 16 maj 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/nyalgQ/strindberg-hade-inte-varit-nadig Sitt nuvarande uppdrag i FN fick hon på förslag av USA, inte på förslag av Sverige.   En av anledningarna därtill var naturligtvis den sak som inte med ett ord omnämndes i EU-kramarnas huvudorgan i Sverige, Svenska Dagbladet, det faktum att hon ingick i den grupp som på

 This beautiful chart generated by Bloomberg Economic Analysis breaks CPI into four major components; food, fuel, other goods, and other services.  Two years ago there were major shocks to the prices of goods, food and energy, all of which have now dissipated. That’s why inflation is much lower now.  The problem is that services inflation remains stubbornly high, and accounts for substantially all of headline inflation at this point: John Authers Bloomberg 16 maj 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-16/us-economy-inflation-battle-is-far-from-over

  “Dad, what’s a financial crisis?” Humöret är på topp bland världens tunga fondförvaltare. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/05/humoret-ar-pa-topp-bland-varldens-tunga.html Powell  Fed Likely to Keep Rates Higher for Longer Powell Reiterates Fed Likely to Keep Rates Higher for Longer Star (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Frida Bratt, sparekonom på Nordnet, slår fast att inflationsbekämpningen har lyckats . SvD 15 maj 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/alwkPL/sa-hog-blev-inflationen-i-april Det här betyder dagens inflationsbesked – SvD reder ut | Johan Carlström | SvD What’s wrong with cheap Chinese imports? Krugman What’s wrong with cheap Chinese imports? Krugman (englundmacro.blogspot.com) Tidigare rikspolischefen Anders Thornberg misstänks för brott i samband med Mats Löfvings död i fjol.  Han anklagas för vållande till annans död.  ”Det jag anklagas för är att jag inte stoppade utredaren Runar Vikstens presskonferens. Rapporten som utredaren presenterade var offentlig, varför en inställd pr

One of Jamie Dimon’s daughters called him up from school with a question more than a decade ago: “Dad, what’s a financial crisis?”  The billionaire who runs JPMorgan Chase & Co. tried to put her at ease. “It’s the type of thing that happens every five to seven years,” he told her, he later testified to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.  The problems are old, and the system is delicate: We let banks make long-term investments, including loans and bonds, while taking deposits from customers who can demand them back whenever they want. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/04/who-was-to-blame-for-failures-of.html History The Bank for International Settlements will gather top central bankers and financiers for a meeting in Basel this weekend amid rising concern about a resurgence of the “excessive risk-taking” that sparked the financial crisis. “The concern here is that the prolonged assurance of very cheap and ample funding may encourage excessive risk-taking,” the BIS invitat

Sentimentsindexet steg till den högsta nivån sedan hösten 2021 i april. DI 14 maj 2024 https://www.di.se/live/topphumor-bland-tunga-forvaltare/ The S&P 500 is up more than 9% in the year to date, finishing Monday just 0.6% below its record close of 5,254.35 points, set on March 28. The Dow Jones remains less than 600 points away from the 40,000 milestone, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP has advanced more than 9% so far in 2024. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-could-suffer-ugly-day-if-april-cpi-comes-in-above-this-level-e6cfe6c4

The Fed chief said recent inflation figures indicate it will likely take more time than previously thought to attain the confidence needed to lower interest rates, echoing comments he made earlier this month. Powell described current policy as restrictive by “many, many measures”  but noted time will tell whether rates are sufficiently high to bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% goal. Bloomberg 14 maj 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-14/fed-s-powell-urges-patience-given-lack-of-inflation-progress Higher Interest Rates Have Changed the World Benchmark US Treasury yields have shot from less than 1% in 2020 to more than 4%, reflecting the raised costs of financing for everyone from mortgage borrowers to business startups.  We asked leading economists and investors to reflect on the consequences of tighter money. Their responses have been edited for clarity and length. Bloomberg 13 december 2023  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-13/whatever-the-

RE: Ajabaja, inte vara protektionist. USA chockhöjer tullarna på kinesiska elbilar, och EU väntas följa efter.  I Europa är hotet från de kinesiska elbilstillverkarna också betydligt mer påtagligt än i USA. De senaste åren har flera kinesiska bolag etablerat sig här med namn som BYD, Xpeng, MG, Zeekr och Nio. På flera håll är oron betydande för att delar av den stora europeiska bilindustrin ska slås ut om marknaden överflödas av billiga kinesiska elbilar. SvD 14 maj 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/kwJyBX/joe-bidens-kina-straff-tull-pa-elbilar-okar-med-100-procent Donald Trump is an old-fashioned protectionist But President Biden is by no means a free-trade purist.  His signature legislative achievement, the Inflation Reduction Act — which is actually mainly about fighting climate change — contains several nationalistic provisions designed to limit subsidies primarily to manufactured goods produced in North America.  And the Biden administration is now imposing tariffs as high as 100 percent