tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-106873362024-03-18T22:40:10.602+01:00EnglundRolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.comBlogger7873125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-68281467541945488582024-03-18T22:37:00.008+01:002024-03-18T22:40:08.402+01:00Senior Strategy Analyst March 18 Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-29690290034651535132024-03-18T18:16:00.007+01:002024-03-18T18:24:25.362+01:00China Evergrande Fraudulently Boosted Sales Founder Hui Ka Yan is given lifetime ban by Chinese markets panelThe China Securities Regulatory Commission found Hengda had substantially inflated crucial reported financials in 2019 and 2020, and relied on those misleading figures to sell bonds. It judges sales were overstated by a total of 564.1 billion yuan over the two years, or the equivalent of $78.4 billion. Rebecca Feng Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-45153491227367528022024-03-18T09:09:00.002+01:002024-03-18T09:09:04.836+01:00J-21 och J-22 med mera The Experimental Swedish WW2 Fighter - Saab 21 - YouTubeRolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-12698566184224021232024-03-17T20:37:00.009+01:002024-03-18T15:43:53.810+01:00Has Fed Hit the Brakes Hard Enough? Federal-funds rate target, at 5.25% to 5.5%, is relatively high in nominal and inflation-adjusted termsBecause of lags, the question of whether growth perseveres or rolls over in the face of past interest-rate hikes might well be resolved in the next six months.Fed raises short-term interest rates to cool inflation by slowing demand, hiring and wage growth. It does that through the Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-687336437247059562024-03-17T19:55:00.005+01:002024-03-17T19:55:36.585+01:00France, Germany and Poland differences over UkraineIn particular the chancellor has resisted intense pressure to supply German-made Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, a stand that has won support for his politically flagging Social Democrats among war-shy Germans (an opinion poll suggests that 61% of Germans oppose such transfers). But it has frustrated allies as well as many German policy experts and the opposition Christian Democrats.The Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-52516540039658965112024-03-17T19:42:00.008+01:002024-03-17T19:42:29.213+01:00Between 1885 and 1919, Germany was the third-largest colonial power in Africa he colonies included present-day Namibia, the present-day states of Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania (without Zanzibar) as well as Togo, Cameroon and areas in present-day Ghana.Germany's colonial era: Battling oblivion with art – DW – 03/16/2024Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-8600362085657361142024-03-17T13:51:00.006+01:002024-03-17T16:41:40.712+01:00Fastator, Björn Rosengren, Carl Bildt, Spiltan och Batljan Fastighetsbolaget Fastator som i leds av exministern Björn Rosengren, ställde på torsdagens kväll in räntebetalningar på flera obligationer och aviserade på fredagen två separata försäljningar av fastigheter. Bolagets problem är dåliga nyheter för såväl Spiltan Fonder som Fastators storägare tillika tidigare vd Joachim Kuylenstierna och hans ägarbolag, som fram till nyligen hette Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-61053272094630084632024-03-16T19:49:00.002+01:002024-03-16T19:52:09.138+01:00Många moderater och kristdemokrater tycker att Carl Bildts principiella ”Ja till EU” är otidsenligt och pinsamtI en ny rapport från Timbro (”Varning för Swexit! Högerväljarnas kluvna syn på EU”) analyserar Carl Albinsson opinionen och skriver om ”en utbredd skepsis gentemot överstatlighet och federalism hos många högerväljare”.SD:s Charlie Weimers går till storms mot unionens överstatliga beslut och institutioner, försvarar oinskränkt nationell suveränitet och varnar för Europas förenta stater.Sådant Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-39243511842911948082024-03-16T18:13:00.002+01:002024-03-16T18:13:05.910+01:00The price of secondhand homes in China ... ... fell 6.3% in February compared to the same month last year.That was the worst year-on-year decline since the government started releasing data in 2011.It was part of a widespread drop in prices across the country, as China’s painful real-estate slump shows no signs of losing steam.Wall Street Journal 15 March 2024 https://www.wsj.com/world/china/Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-86661325979889771622024-03-16T14:35:00.004+01:002024-03-16T17:51:45.446+01:00Wall Street Doom Prophesy Falls FlatGustav Sällberg från Prior Nilsson ”Jag tror att fastighetsaktier kan dubblas på två, tre års sikt.”https://www.di.se/nyheter/forvaltarna-aktierna-att-kopa-nu-kan-dubblas/Prior Nilsson https://priornilsson.se/The last few years of gravity-defying markets have proved unkind to the pundit classWith the US economy expanding at a healthy clip, a Bloomberg-compiled portfolio tracking Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-82964954469747214542024-03-16T12:58:00.000+01:002024-03-16T12:58:03.165+01:00The bulls are clearly in chargeYou may have noticed the stock market rising lately Much of the gain isn’t so much “the market” as a handful of mega-cap stocks. Nonetheless, the bulls are clearly in charge. The question is how long they will stay there. History suggests longer than many market bears think.Sarah Hansen at Morningstar thinks the market is fairly valued. David Rosenberg, not so much.Bank of America Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-73668209375398005962024-03-15T20:20:00.008+01:002024-03-16T07:10:17.333+01:00Swaps pricing Friday showed less than 75 basis points of easing priced by December 10-year yields are on track for biggest weekly rise this yearBloomberg 15 March 2024https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-15/treasuries-slump-as-traders-push-fed-rate-cut-bets-out-to-julyMajor equity indexes are heading for weekly declineshttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-futures-inch-higher-as-inflation-jitters-cap-gains-c377d4a3Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-63118186457114316552024-03-14T18:55:00.011+01:002024-03-14T18:55:59.219+01:00Drone Swarms Are About to Change the Balance of Military PowerHistory is littered with similar stories. A favorite comes from the time of Alexander the Great. His conquests are as much a technological story as a political one. When Alexander’s army stepped onto the battlefield it was not only with a new technology—the sarissa, a 16-foot spear—but also with a new conception of how to use that weapon in tight, impregnable phalanxes. USS Gerald R. Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-7929226362420020712024-03-14T18:15:00.001+01:002024-03-14T18:15:14.477+01:00Intrum anlitar Houlihan Lokey som hanterade Lehman Brothers kollaps under finanskrisen. Richard Bråse DI 14 mars 2024https://www.di.se/analys/game-over-for-aktieagarna/Vägen till ruinens brantHela historien om Intrums uppgång och fallDI 8 mars 2024https://www.di.se/analys/vagen-till-ruinens-brant/Lehman Brothers ställde in betalningarna den 15 september 2008 - vad har vi lärt oss på 15 år?Gunnar Örn DPS 31 aug. 2023https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/09/Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-23416544132478716202024-03-14T14:46:00.005+01:002024-03-14T14:46:38.518+01:00The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes averaged 2.39% in the decade through 2019 Higher-for-Longer and That’s OK - Good News is Good News and Bad News is Good News (englundmacro.blogspot.com)Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-5333387357783891952024-03-14T08:37:00.008+01:002024-03-18T18:37:17.014+01:00US Stock Market Doesn’t Care About Rate CutsThat’s because of a startling inflection in US profits, and amazing market momentumCPI print for February came in hotter than expected, yet the stock market wasn’t bothered.The US stock market has quite a head of steam, and once it has momentum is hard to stop. When the herd is running like this, nobody wants to get in the wayRemember that when momentum finally reverses, it does so in a big Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-482883181573053352024-03-14T08:21:00.009+01:002024-03-14T19:02:48.763+01:00Inflationen KPIF sjönk till 2,5 procent i februariInflationen mätt som KPIF sjönk från 3,3 procent i årstakt i januari till 2,5 procent i februariPå månadsbasis steg KPIF-inflationen, som är inflationen med fast ränta, med 0,2 procent. Det var också lägre än förväntningarna som låg på 0,3 procent.Inflationstakten mätt som KPI uppgick till 4,5 procent i februari jämfört med samma månad i fjol. Det kan jämföras med 5,4 procent i januari.Samtidigt Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-26488043626519335152024-03-13T16:30:00.005+01:002024-03-13T17:51:06.183+01:00EU-paketet till Egypten 85 miljarder kronorFör att mota en akut kris i Arabvärldens mest folkrika land förbereder EU ett nytt stort stödpaket.(Befolkning 2020 uppskattning 102 miljoner)Tidigare fått lån och investeringar om totalt 40 miljarder dollar, motsvarande nära 410 miljarder kronor från Förenade Arabemiraten och IMF. Det syftar också till att förstärka Egyptens gräns mot Libyen där många korsar Medelhavet på väg till EuropaDI Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-51374141388754062582024-03-13T16:00:00.010+01:002024-03-14T15:11:25.248+01:00Higher-for-Longer and That’s OK - Good News is Good News and Bad News is Good NewsInflation has come in slightly higher than expected for a second straight month. Markets took Tuesday’s CPI data in stride.Investors are getting used to the idea that interest rates in the U.S. could stay high for longer than they had hoped. Of course what will ultimately have the bigger impact on markets and the economy isn’t when the Fed starts but where it ends up. Longer term,Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-74965039282123726372024-03-13T12:42:00.009+01:002024-03-13T12:42:46.826+01:00Så var det på 60-talet Från rekordåren till dårårenhttps://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2021/01/fran-hojdpunkten-1965-66-till-1967-68.htmlMats Gellerfelt om Göran Hägg Välfärdsårenhttp://www.aftonbladet.se/kultur/bokrecensioner/article10664429.abRolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-87258304698321411692024-03-13T12:10:00.003+01:002024-03-13T12:10:16.040+01:00Tickande bomben i Heimstaden ABIvar Tollefsens Heimstaden AB, som kontrollerar den pressade bostadsjätten Heimstaden Bostad, kan få problem att hantera ett obligationsförfall 2025.Cirka 70 miljarder kronor av svenskt pensionskapital har genom Alecta, Folksam och Pensionsmyndigheten investerats i Heimstaden Bostad, där de svenska pensionsförvaltarna har krokat arm med den norske miljardären Ivar Tollefsen och hans bolag Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-61596152587155727202024-03-13T10:53:00.006+01:002024-03-13T16:31:59.896+01:00All over the world, the total fertility rate (TFR) has been falling since the 1970sThe total fertility rate (TFR) — the number of live children the average woman bears in her lifetime In one country after another, it has dropped under the 2.1 threshold (the “replacement rate,” allowing for childhood deaths and sex imbalances), below which the population is bound to decline. This fertility slump is in many ways the most remarkable trend of our era. And it Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-7237272796923741432024-03-13T09:37:00.008+01:002024-03-13T09:48:00.319+01:00Svenska miljonärer är rikare än någonsinDet visar lyxtidningen Connoisseurs undersökning av sina läsare, där en tredjedel av miljonärerna har över 20 miljoner i värdepapper och hela 7 procent av miljonärerna besitter över 100 miljoner kronor.Susanne Ytterskog är chef på Connoisseur som hon även grundade 1998. En tidning som delas ut tre gånger per år och skickas ut till de vars årliga inkomst landar på 2,6 miljoner kronor eller merSvD Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-7371290220321776992024-03-13T09:19:00.004+01:002024-03-13T18:09:46.444+01:00S&P 500 another all-time high. That feels a world away from US householdsInflation 3.8%, against an official target of 2%, it remains too high for the Federal Reserve to risk a cut in the fed funds rate:And yet, financial markets didn’t react with horror.So Why Are Americans Still so Unhappy About Inflation?College has made itself too hard for most to affordEven though inflation may be down, it’s harder to finance debt. That naturally makes people feel poorer, and Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10687336.post-58155474762576105112024-03-12T18:13:00.001+01:002024-03-12T18:13:20.680+01:00Styrelsen i ett fastighetsbolag kan ha beslutat om internvärdering ...... utan att det avspeglar möjligheten att i nuläget sälja fastigheterna till motsvarande marknadspris.Det är naturligtvis extra pikant i ett läge då fastigheter har fallit i marknadsvärde. Men nu utreder Finansinspektionen, FI, om att strama upp informationen kring fastighetsaffärer.Johan Hellekant SvD 12 mars 2024https://www.svd.se/a/dwxxnA/Rolf Englundhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05591697506559269613noreply@blogger.com0