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The Recession Is Always Six Months Away

The most anticipated recession in recent U.S. history. It also keeps getting postponed.

Recent strong hiring and consumer spending are the latest evidence that the pandemic and the unprecedented policy measures that followed are interfering with the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation.

The government’s stimulus measures left household and business finances in unusually strong shape. Shortages of materials and workers mean companies are still struggling to satisfy demand for rate-sensitive goods, such as homes and autos. 

And Americans are splurging on labor-intensive activities they avoided in recent years, including dining out, travel and live entertainment.

WSJ 6 March 2023


Credit is available at rates that imply no particular risk of default, and very little risk of recession. 

John Authers Bloomberg 6 mars 2023


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