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2017-03-26

The Commission’s recent “White Paper on the Future of Europe” that sets out five possible paths forward for Europe

Rather than rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic, the EU needs to address why the ship is sinking.

The choice will require EU leaders first to assess, with honesty and even bravery, where the EU is right now. 

They must be willing to call a spade a spade – or, in this case, to call the EU an intergovernmental organization in transnational clothing. 

Only after they recognize that this is a dysfunctional structure – because it allows both the EU institutions and member states to skirt responsibility by constantly pointing fingers at one another – can they pursue the needed rebalancing.


Ana Palacio, a former Spanish foreign minister and former Senior Vice President of the World Bank, Project Syndicate 20 March 2017




Att lämna euron eller sin partner är jobbigt. Men det kan var mödan värt.

 - En möjlig tolkning är att euron snarare än att vara en mekanism för ”en allt fastare sammanslutning av de europeiska folken” kanske kan vara den mekanism som håller ihop EU och förhindrar ett sönderfall därför att en återgång till nationella valutor upplevs som alltför komplicerad och riskfylld. 

Lars Calmfors, Eurokrisen, eurosamarbetets regelsystem och den framtida integrationen (SIEPS 2017:1)



2017-03-25

The Economist: Never-closer union


If it is to survive, the European Union must become a lot more flexible


The Economist print 25 March 2017

2017-03-21

The problem with cocos more broadly is that nobody knows if they work. FT


Lloyds Bank of the UK issued the first coco as part of a big capital restructuring in 2009.

 
Over $153bn of the securities have been issued since


FT 21 March 2017

Varför investera när man kan köpa tillbaka sina egna aktier?

Då stiger vinsten per aktie. Antalet aktier minskar ju.

Det kan bli fina bonusar av det.

$4 Trillion of Corporate Equity Liquidated Since 2000



Se även

There’s Only One Buyer Keeping S&P 500’s Bull Market Alive - $165 billion Buyback

S&P constituents are poised to repurchase as much as $165 billion of stock this quarter, approaching a record reached in 2007. 


The real, less respectable reason why companies engage in buybacks, namely to boost earnings per share by shrinking the equity.

Plender






A popular options-market gauge of so-called black swan trades at record levels.

A popular options-market gauge of so-called black swan, or difficult to predict, events 
is drawing the attention of some bears on Wall Street as it trades at record levels.


MarketWatch 21 March 2017

2017-03-20

Fed might be doing the right thing for the U.S. But for foreign companies and governments ....

But for foreign companies and governments that have borrowed trillions of U.S. dollars, the adjustment could be painful.

Mark Whitehouse, Bloomberg 19 March 2017

2017-03-17

IMF - Conservatives in US Congress say Europeans should solve the crisis on their own


“For seven years now, the IMF has been used to shield eurozone officials from their voters, which has tarnished the Fund’s reputation, prolonged Greece’s misery, and put off hard choices about Europe's future that must be made regardless.”

FT 17 March 2017


2017-03-12

Greenspan conundrum has, for now, disappeared. Davies

Greenspan found it puzzling that long term bond yields were declining in a period during which the FOMC had just raised short-term rates by 150 basis points. 

Gavyn Davies, FT 12 March 2017

2017-03-08

US President Donald Trump suffers from an acute strain of trade deficit disorder. Roach


The US has trade deficits with 101 nations. This is not a bilateral problem.

Reflects a far deeper problem: the US’s saving deficit. 

Stephen Roach, FT 7 March 2017

2017-03-06

Postmortem plans for banks under threat of extinction

Today, there is worrying evidence on both sides of the Atlantic that the resolution idea could be in jeopardy before it has been fully implemented, let alone tested

FT 6 March 2017

The Dollar, Bretton Woods, Triffin and China

Now as then, the US could meet the rest of the world’s appetite for dollars by issuing more dollar debt.

This would require the US to run sustained current-account deficits, mirrored in fiscal deficits.

Of course, while the link to gold is passé, any domestic fiscal objective to curb US debt growth would be at odds with the international role as sole provider of the reserve currency.


Carmen Reinhart, Project Syndicate 2 March 2017

2017-03-03

Max Weber Lecture by Barry Eichengreen (Berkeley), 15 February 2017

The present outbreak of euphoria contains a number of distinct, bubble-like characteristics. Warner

Markets are leaving themselves virtually no room for disappointment. 

There is unfortunately a real possibility that Mr Trump will be unable to deliver on his tax cutting and infrastructure spending plans


Jeremy Warner, Telegraph 2 March 2017