Inlägg

Bara inflationen blir två procent kommer allt att bli bra - den nya religionen

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  Riksbankens beslut att lämna styrräntan oförändrad på 4,0 procent och ställa en lägre ränta i utsikt, kanske, har utlöst stor glädje. Som i USA där marknaden jublar över att räntan kanske kommer att sänkas med 0,25 procent kanske TRE gånger det kommande året. https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/riksbanken-lamnar-styrrantan-oforandrad.html Kanske bankekonomer, fastighetsmäklare och aktiemarknaden och deras närstående har ett egenintresse av att framställa det så? Men det borde inte vara centralbankernas uppgift att se till att räntan är låg och tillgångspriserna höga.  Don’t count on Fed to ride to the rescue of a faltering stock market -- at least not yet (englundmacro.blogspot.com) - Riksbankens mål om 2,0 procents inflation tillkom i all hast för litet mer än 20 år sedan. Inflationsmålet skulle inte ha funnits där, om Sverige hade klarat att hålla fast växelkurs. Johan Schück, DN Did inflation targeting fail? Martin Wolf, Financial Times, May 5 2009 https://englundmacro.blogs

Momentum - Go with the flow?

Momentum stocks are outperforming S&P 500 by widest margin since 2008.  Up 20.8% since the start of the year, compared with a rise of 9.7% for the S&P 500. The MSCI momentum index is valued at nearly 29 times expected 2024 earnings of its components.  That is its highest since late May 2021, when the meme-stock craze was in full swing MarketWatch 27 March 2024 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/momentum-stocks-are-outperforming-s-p-500-by-widest-margin-since-2008-investors-should-be-concerned-332c47ce Riksbanken lämnar styrräntan oförändrad på 4,0 procent En familj med ett bolån på några miljoner kronor kan spara flera tusen kronor varje månad.  SvD ledare 27 mars 2024 https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/riksbanken-lamnar-styrrantan-oforandrad.html

The US and its allies have been trying to stop the Houthis but their attacks on ships continue

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On the flight deck of the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier on operation  in the Southern Red Sea, on March 19. The success of the Iran-backed rebel group in stymying the world’s most sophisticated militaries is the latest setback for Washington’s efforts to limit the spread of a regional conflict that began with Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel on Oct. 7. Admiral Marc Miguez, commander of the flotilla, concedes the US and its allies have more work to do. “It’s a quite binary situation,” Rolf Habben Jansen, chief executive officer of Hapag-Lloyd AG said on an earnings call this month. “It is either safe for our people or it is not. As long as it is not safe, we will not send our people through the Red Sea.” Iranian supplies are getting through. Iran has also sent advisers, including specialists in laying mines at sea, according to people familiar with the situation. The Houthis are “putting it all together and assembling,” General Michael Kurilla, commander of the US Central Comm

Riksbanken lämnar styrräntan oförändrad på 4,0 procent

 ”Om inflationsutsikterna fortsätter att vara gynnsamma kan styrräntan troligen sänkas i maj eller juni”, skriver Riksbanken. DI 27 mars 2024 https://www.di.se/live/riksbanken-lamnas-styr/ https://www.riksbank.se/sv/press-och-publicerat/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/pressmeddelanden/2024/styrrantan-oforandrad-pa-4-procent2/ Även om styrräntan lämnas oförändrad, uppdaterar Riksbanken sin prognos för ränteutvecklingen framåt.  I början av valåret 2026 spås styrräntan vara 1,3 procentenheter lägre än i dag För hushållen har denna till synes marginella justering stor betydelse i vardagen. En familj med ett bolån på några miljoner kronor kan spara flera tusen kronor varje månad.  De tusenlapparna kan vara hela skillnaden mellan ett gott och ett begränsat liv. SvD ledare 27 mars 2024 https://www.svd.se/a/BW57E7/sverige-har-varkanslor-for-ulf-kristersson Det tydliga beskedet om en räntesänkning före sommaren kommer ge bostadsmarknaden skjuts – och kan leda till prislyft.  Det tror Alexandra St

Macron Wants to Run Europe’s Foreign Policy. Not Everyone Agrees

His controversial comment about boots on the ground earned an instant and very public recrimination from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and angered US officials By forcing Berlin to publicly rule out the possibility of sending troops, Macron managed to dispel what lingering ambiguity there had been about the whereabouts of allies’ red lines, according to a senior US official. Nor were the comments very smart from the standpoint of operational security — according to separate officials who also spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity — especially given that several countries already, quietly, have some personnel in Ukraine. His Africa strategy is in tatters as France struggles to convince nations in the Sahel region to tolerate the presence of a former colonial power.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/macron-wants-to-be-europe-s-de-facto-leader-on-foreign-policy-is-it-working Joseph Borell Commission Vice-President in charge of coordinating the external action of t

"S&P 500 could benefit from a healthy pullback of at least 5%"

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https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/goldman-sachs-spar-att-borsen-ska-sta.html Here’s what history tells us about Corrections https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-could-spark-the-next-stock-market-selloff-heres-what-history-tells-us-c3a0423e

Den kinesiska storägaren Li Shufus tjänat 33 miljarder på AB Volvo – långt mer än de 20 miljarder som Christer Gardells Cevian

Di:s beräkningar visar att den kinesiska storägaren Li Shufus nu tjänat 33 miljarder kronor på innehavet under drygt 6 år – långt mer än de 20 miljarder kronor som Christer Gardells Cevian tjänade på elva år.  Bara i veckan erhåller Geely nästan 2,5 miljarder i utdelningar från AB Volvo.  Beskedet slog ned som en bomb i julhelgen 2017. Christer Gardells aktivistfond Cevian hade sålt sitt stora innehav i AB Volvo till kinesiska Geely.  Det var en post som utmanade makten i AB Volvo då den motsvarade 8,2 procent av kapitalet men hela 15,6 procent av rösterna.  Geelys fina affär i AB Volvo står i skarp kontrast till den svaga utvecklingen i Volvo Cars de senaste tre åren där den kinesiska biljätten är huvudägare.  Vid börsnoteringen hösten 2021 var värdet på Geelys aktier 132 miljarder kronor vilket nu krympt till 87 miljarder. Samtidigt köpte Geely Volvo Cars väldigt billigt för bara 13 miljarder kronor 2010 och har mångdubblat värdet sedan dess, trots nedgången de senaste åren. Magnus D

Why Treasury Yields Are Rising Despite Rate-Cut Expectations

As of Tuesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.233%, up from 3.860% at the end of last year.  As a result, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has also ticked higher, as has the cost of borrowing in the corporate-bond market. The climb has surprised many on Wall Street, who had expected yields to fall Sam Goldfarb Wall Street Journal 26 March 2024 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/treasury-yields-rising-fed-interest-rate-expectations-4a157a85

The Great Rates Descent Will Be Nasty, Brutish and Long

The challenge of retreating without tipping into a recession, or allowing price rises to return.  For central bankers — stranded with policy rates far too high for their comfort but reluctant to take the risk of cutting them — the analogy /with Descending a mountain/ is doubly uncomfortable.  Descending a mountain is more hazardous than the ascent. That’s when accidents happen. To track the climbdown, Points of Return is launching The Year of Descending Dangerously, a suite of indicators that we will update monthly.  The chances are that it will take longer and move more slowly than many now seem to anticipate John Authers et al. Bloomberg 26 March 2024  https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-opinion-rate-cuts-covid-inflation-central-banks/ The phrase “nasty, brutish, and short” originates from Thomas Hobbes’ book Leviathan (1651) Bing AI

US Home prices reach new high in January, Case-Shiller says

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 San Diego saw the biggest increase in home prices Home prices in the 20 major U.S. metro markets were up 6.6% in the last 12 months ending in January. A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose 0.4% in January and was also up 6% over the past year.  The annual increase was the fastest since 2022  MarketWatch 26 March 2024 US Mortgage rates back at 7% - 30 år - inte tre månader... Has Fed Hit the Brakes Hard Enough? https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/has-fed-hit-brakes-hard-enough.html  

Det värsta börshotet är alltid en finanskris

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  Gissningsleken om hur konjunkturen ska utvecklas på kort sikt är sällan särskilt lönsam. Ur ett makroperspektiv är det bättre att försöka bedöma risken för de farligaste fällorna.  För aktieinvesterare gäller det att alltid svara på den viktigaste frågan – finns det överhängande risker för en snar finanskris?  Mitt tydliga svar är nej.  Olyckskorpar kunde tidigare kraxa om att vissa svenska banker hade alltför stor utlåning till fastigheter, men dessa röster har i allt väsentligt tystats av de senaste kvartalsrapporterna.  Samma bild gäller i de allra flesta länder i västvärlden.  Henrik Mitelman DI 26 mars 2024  https://www.di.se/analys/makrofallan-som-riskerar-skaka-borsen/

"The first wall to fall was torn down in 1980 at the Gdansk shipyards.

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Europe’s economy is under attack from all sides (economist.com) EU to release €6.3 billion in aid to Poland - nu när Tusk, tidigare ordförande i Europeiska rådet, kommit till makten https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/02/eu-to-release-63-billion-in-aid-to.html Later it was the turn of the   walls, and the Germans brought down the real wall in Berlin." Walesa was the chairman of the Solidarity trade union in communist Poland from 1980 to 1990 and later became the first elected president of democratic Poland, serving from 1990 to 1995.  He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to freedom and democracy. Deutsche Well 23 March 2024 Parliamentary elections were held in Poland in 1989 to elect members of the Sejm and the recreated Senate.  The first round took place on 4 June, with a second round on 18 June.  They were the first elections in the country since the Communist Polish United Workers Party abandoned its monopoly of power in April 1989. Not all parliamenta

China seals Hong Kong’s failed-state fate

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Article 23 is final confirmation of China’s shocking breach of faith with Britain. Beijing solemnly pledged, 40 years ago, to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy.  The 1984 Sino-British joint declaration agreed the “one country, two systems” principle would continue in force for at least 50 years after the 1997 handover.  China’s post-pandemic economic slump, exacerbated by Xi’s private sector squeeze, is adding to Hong Kong’s woes.  The stock market has lost nearly half its value in three years.  The property sector is in crisis, besieged by debt and raised interest rates.  For many in Asia, Singapore is the new business destination of choice. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/23/xi-jinping-seals-hong-kong-fate-as-failed-state How the World’s Priciest Property Market Stumbled Reversal of fortune for Hong Kong’s housing market is a symbol of the city’s malaise https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2024/03/china-evergrande-fraudulently-boosted.html

Ryssland och Islamic State - At its height, Islamic State held about a third of Syria and 40 per cent of Iraq

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Putin changed the course of the Syrian civil war when he intervened in 2015, supporting President Bashar al-Assad against the opposition and Islamic State. The war began in 2011 after a pro-democracy uprising against al-Assad's authoritarian rule quickly expanded to fully fledged infighting, with Islamic State seizing large parts of Syria and Iraq by 2013. At its height, Islamic State held about a third of Syria and 40 per cent of Iraq, but by the end of 2017 it had lost 95 per cent of its territory. 23 march 2024 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-23/what-is-isis-k-moscow-terror-attack/103623852 https://www.abc.net.au/news BBC 31 July 2014 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28560449 Two decades ago, the United States invaded Iraq, sending 130,000 US troops into a sovereign country to overthrow its government. Joe Biden, then chairman of the Senate foreign relations committee, voted to authorize the war, a decision he came to regret. Today another large, world-shaking inva

Ancient species of humans likely left Africa multiple times

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  Projectile points found at the archaeological site, Shinfa-Metema 1,  in the lowlands of northwest Ethiopia The most significant dispersal of Homo sapiens, our own species — which ultimately led to modern humans living in every corner of the globe — took place around 70,000 to 50,000 years ago. About 74,000 years ago, Sumatra’s Mount Toba experienced a super-eruption, one of the largest in Earth’s history.  Some scientists have suspected a volcanic winter resulting from the eruption was a big enough shift to wipe out most early humans   But now a cutting-edge study on an archaeological site in northwest Ethiopia once occupied by early modern humans has added to a growing body of evidence that suggests the event might not have been so apocalyptic. Instead, the new research found humans in that location, known as Shinfa-Metema 1, adapted to the arid conditions brought on by the volcanic eruption in a way that may have facilitated humanity’s pivotal migration out of Africa to the rest o

Goldman Sachs spår att börsen ska stå lägre än dagens nivåer när året summeras

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26 mars 2024  S&P 500 Turns Lower in Final 30 Minutes of Trading “As momentum slows and breadth diverges, we believe the S&P 500 could benefit from a healthy pullback of at least 5% toward its 50-day moving average — a level last tested in early November,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler. Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P Live Updates for March 26 - Bloomberg DI  USA-börserna handlades inledningsvis upp under tisdagen, men föll ned under nollan under kvällen.  Dow Jones industriindex föll 0,1 procent medan breda S&P 500 sjönk 0,3 procent.  Nasdaq Composite stängde på minus 0,4 procent.  Nätforumet Reddit, som börsnoterades förra veckan, rusade 9,1 procent. Aktien stängde på 65,23 dollar, att jämföra med 34 dollar per aktie i erbjudandet inför noteringen.  https://www.di.se/live/wall-street-stangde-pa-minus-trumps-mediebolag-rusade-i-borsdebuten/ 25 mars 2024 DI Efter en lugn inledning på veckan stängde samtliga USA-index på rött.  Dow Jones industriindex avslutade måndag

Snart tar Viktor Orbán över rodret i EU - Nja.

Genom det gällande Lissabon-fördraget är uppdraget som ordförandeland numera begränsat.  Det finns en så kallad ”permanent EU-president” som leder och sätter dagordningen för alla toppmöten, för närvarande Charles Michel. Det finns också en så kallad ”hög representant” för EU:s utrikespolitik, just nu Josep Borell. Rolf Gustavsson SvD 23 mars 2024   Partiledarna, Lissabon och EU-parlamentets växande makt (englundmacro.blogspot.com) ... säger Nabila Massrali, talesperson för EU:s utrikestjänst Joseph Borell Commission Vice-President in charge of coordinating the external action of the European Union. The EU Intelligence and Situation Centre (EU INTCEN) - a "civilian intelligence function" of the European Union https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/08/sager-nabila-massrali-talesperson-for.html

“LLM” or large language model. That’s the technology behind ChatGPT - Problem for the Grid - Elnätet

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LLMs read documents then calculate, letter by letter, word by word, how bits of information usually go together.  This requires many millions of computations. Note also, the power isn’t just for the microchips. Running so many calculations so quickly generates heat. The disposing of it requires cooling systems which consume yet more power (and sometimes massive amounts of water—another not-cheap resource). You begin to see the challenge. AI generates enormous new energy demand on top of everything else. This is pure growth, not the replacement for something that will go away—at least not yet. It’s hard to get to Net Zero when we keep inventing new technologies that consume ever larger amounts of energy. The goalposts keep moving. We are also shifting some energy demand from direct burning (gasoline, heating oil) to electric vehicles and heating systems. The amount consumed may not change much but it puts more strain on the electric grid.  US electricity demand growth has tripled since

Britain has become a nation of immigrants

Another surprise: it’s very good at assimilating people Although the popular image of a migrant is a desperate young man floating across the English Channel, Britain’s foreign-born residents are frequently middle-class and slightly more female than male.  They quickly get up to speed economically, and their children do strikingly well in school.  The government makes no effort to disperse immigrants from ghettos, as, say, the Danish government does.  Yet they disperse themselves anyway. The Economist 18 March 2024

Since 1945, we have become relentlessly richer, healthier, more educated. Book from The International Institute for Strategic Studies

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The trumpeter of all this positive thinking, and more that we shall address below, is Francis J. Gavin, a history professor at Johns Hopkins University and veteran adviser to governments.  He is, in short, no quack. His new book, or perhaps long essay, is entitled The Taming of Scarcity and The Problems of Plenty. We citizens of rich societies are spoiled; we have elevated the cult of self to manic proportions: “Venerating individualism and encouraging self-crafted identities can weaken the bonds of larger collective enterprises, leaving people isolated, lonely, vulnerable and, at times, dangerously alienated.” In the age of plenty, it becomes more difficult to persuade people to subordinate their immediate personal desires and interests to the service of the community or the nation.  Moreover, those in charge lack power to deliver many of the outcomes that the people want The author reserves his gravest warnings for the failure of governments in general, and of the US government in pa

Ska Lidingö bli som andra Stockholmsförorter?

Massiv utbyggnad. Kraftig inflyttning. Större centrumanläggningar. Höghus med tusentals lägenheter. Eller ska Lidingö bevara småskaligheten, de särpräglade kulturmiljöerna och tillgången till naturen? Daniel Källenfors (M) kommunstyrelsens ordförande Anders Paulsen (LP) kommunstyrelsens vice ordförande 22 mars 2024 https://www.lidingonyheter.se/var-nya-plan-later-lidingo-vara-lidingo/

Kobeissi - S&P 500 added $10 TRILLION in market cap since its October 27th low.

Since October 27th, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 1,150 points, or 28%. That means the index has added $10 trillion in 97 trading days, or $103 billion PER DAY since October 27th. In other words, the S&P 500 has added roughly 4 times the market cap of Apple, AAPL, in just 5 months. AI hype and Fed pivot hopes are literally adding trillions in market cap for stocks. How high can this go? The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter https://twitter.com/kobeissiletter/status/1770843062308061305?s=66&t=oS7N6VprnRX7ivs6-7do-A https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter

John P. Hussman - Universal Capitulation and No Margin of Safety

John P. Hussman, Ph.D. President, Hussman Investment Trust March 2024 Hussman Market Comment https://www.hussmanfunds.com/category/comment/  

Former ‘bond king’ Bill Gross warns ‘irrational exuberance’ is driving stocks higher

But anticipating when investors enthusiasm for stocks will finally fade remains as difficult as ever, he said.  Of course, there have been plenty of fluctuations in the interim: the yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury note has risen 300 basis points over the past two years. The fact that stocks have continued to march higher despite such a dramatic rise in borrowing costs is telling, according to Gross. “It tells me that fiscal deficit spending and AI enthusiasm have been overriding factors and momentum and ‘irrational’ exuberance have dominated markets since 2022,” he said. “Irrational exuberance” was famously used by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in a December 1996 speech in reference to the then-fledging bubble in technology stocks.  Like Greenspan said back in 1996, it’s impossible to know ahead of time when the market’s “excessive” exuberance might finally start to flag.  Gross said that remains true today.  Best known for co-founding fixed-income asset-managemen

Ola Serneke och Karlatornet i Göteborg

Initiativtagaren bakom Karlastaden är Ola Serneke, tidigare ägare och vd på byggkoncernen Serneke. DI 21 mars 2024 Fastighetsutvecklaren Serneke har köpts upp av fastighetsbolaget Doxa https://englundmacro.blogspot.com/2023/06/fastighetsutvecklaren-serneke-har-kopts.html

Reddit, Lehman Brothers, Newton och tulpanlökarna

Reddit - 16 miljarder foruminlägg värderas till 84 miljarder kronor Kan det vara toppen på spekulationsberget?  Har folk alldeles tappat fattningen? Hussman, jag och andra björnar har i många år varnat för Den Stora Kraschen och haft fullständigt fel. Det har varit många tunga år för oss björnar John P. Hussman - Universal Capitulation and No Margin of Safety Nu sticker jag ut hakan igen och säger att jag tror att nästa krasch kommer att kallas Reddit-kraschen, analogt med Lehman Brothers . Någon gång skall jag väl få rätt. Vid den så kallade South Sea Bubble år 1720 förlorade till och med  Newton sitt livs besparingar.  Om Newton kan dras med i euforin kan det drabba vem som helst. Tulipmania in the Netherlands in the 1630s It seems all so much easier with hindsight: looking back, we can all enjoy a laugh Hyman Minsky And Asset Price Inflation Versus Consumer Price Inflation https://www.internetional.se/minskybank.htm Bubbles From 1792BC onwards Vad hände sedan? Mer om Reddit Reddit n

Reddit - 16 miljarder foruminlägg värderas till 84 miljarder kronor

Torsdagens börsdebutant, Reddit, handlades som mest 70 procent över noteringskursen – och stängde på 50,44 dollar per aktie, ett rally på hela 48 procent.  Att nätforumet som går med stora förluster tilldrar sig sådant intresse från investerare går bara att tolka på ett vis: riskaptiten i techsektorn är tillbaka. Emanuel Sidea DI 21 mars 2024, 22:31 https://www.di.se/nyheter/riskaptiten-ar-tillbaka-pa-wall-street/ Kommentar RE:  Jag vill redan nu förutskicka att jag återkommer med ett inlägg Reddit, Lehman Brothers, Newton och tulpanlökarna.

U.S. Home Sales Jumped 9.5% - price increased 5.7% from a year earlier

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated sales of previously owned homes to fall 1.3% in February. Wall Street Journal 21 March 2024  https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/u-s-home-sales-jumped-nearly-10-in-february-7f77a35a

Magnificent Seven? Nvidia and Meta

 Nvidia and Meta have pulled away from the rest of the once-hot group as investors focus on AI.  For more than a decade, the stock market has been supercharged by a handful of technology behemoths that have offered the promise of hypergrowth.  You know them: household names such as Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Apple, Facebook parent Meta, Microsoft and Tesla.  Grouped under various acronyms that played off their corporate monikers—FANG, FAANG, MAMAA—these companies became a staple of just about everyone’s portfolio. Then last year, a newcomer joined the crowd: Nvidia. Its stock up more than sixfold since the start of 2023  But this year, the Magnificent Seven has looked more like the Magnificent Two. Nvidia and Meta have surged ahead, Microsoft and Amazon have done reasonably well, and the other three have trailed the S&P 500 index. Bloomberg 21 March 2024 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/nvidia-meta-stock-gains-turn-magnificent-seven-into-two Apple Loses $

America Is Sliding Toward Chinese-Style Capitalism

In the name of national security, politics take priority over profits The problem, as both the TikTok and U.S. Steel affairs show, is that the national interest is constantly being redefined to fit the political priorities of the day. While the U.S. has never been a laissez-faire paradise, more than other countries it believed in free-market capitalism and let efficiency and profits determine the allocation of capital. Neither Donald Trump nor President Biden believe in that. China’s Ministry of Commerce demanded, according to Xinhua, that the U.S. “earnestly respect the market economy and the principle of fair competition, and provide an open, fair, just and nondiscriminatory environment for enterprises from all countries.” Either irony is dead, or the Chinese Communist Party has a subversive sense of humor.  Its entire economic model revolves around selectively flouting principles of the market economy and fair competition, including by systematically discriminating against foreign e

CPI, “Core” CPI and the Neutral Rate of Interest

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  Another question for the Fed is where it wants to end up.  In an ideal world central bankers would guide a full-employment, stable-inflation economy to what is known as the neutral rate of interest, the level at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary.  In reality, although there is no way of observing the neutral rate the Fed still tries to aim for it, with its policymakers writing down their estimates every quarter.  Since 2019 their median projection has, in real terms, been 0.5% (ie, a Fed-funds rate of 2.5% and a pce inflation rate of 2%). Fed’s new median projection for rates in the long run shifted up to 2.6%, implying a real neutral rate of 0.6%. The Economist 20 March 2024  https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/03/20/why-america-cant-escape-inflation-worries Kommentar RE: Jag tycker att en ekonomi borde palla med mer än 0,6 procent realränta.

“at some point this year.” - Interest Rates Are Both Too High and Too Low

Short-term rates are sharply higher.  Long-term rates are steadier.  What’s a central bank to do? The Federal Reserve is still aiming to lower interest rates later this year, and for many U.S. households and small businesses those rate cuts can’t come soon enough.  But for big companies able to tap the corporate bond market, and for investors riding a rising stock market, relief from the Fed doesn’t seem all that necessary. Fed Chair Jerome Powell again characterized the level of rates as “restrictive,” and said that “it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”  The idea that the Fed’s target rate is restrictive is driven by a variety of models, many of them versions of the Taylor rule. Three versions of the rule calculated by the Atlanta Fed suggest the Fed’s target rate should now be 3.9% to 4.7%. But long-term interest rates aren’t nearly as elevated relative to before the pandemic as the overnight rate the Fed targets. The yield on

Räntesänkningarna är på spåret, säger Elisabet Kopelman, USA-ekonom på SEB

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RE: Men Fed-chefen ser sliten ut.  Undra på det https://www.svd.se/a/Xbx3qB/fed-lamnar-styrrantan-i-usa-oforandrad The FOMC was un-hawkish enough to bring both the S&P 500 and the gold price to new records Dig deeper and the dot plot was more hawkish than the headlines A month ago, the market viewed a March rate cut as a racing certainty. It was 100% priced in.  The dot plot -  This time, the key measure that drove excitement was that the governors’ median estimate for the fed funds rate at the end of this year was unchanged, projecting three cuts.  Now, we need to get into the weeds. In total, a net five governors reduced the number of cuts they predicted. That’s halfway to swinging the decision on a committee with 19 members. With nine members expecting two cuts or fewer, only one needs to change from here to raise the median. Then came the press conference. Powell made no hugely dovish pronouncements but resolutely declined to say anything hawkish, either. Bloomberg’s measure of